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bayoubengals88
Wisconsin Fan
LA
Member since Sep 2007
12170 posts

How is this market sustainable (long term outlook)?
1. I am not a "doomsdayer."
2. I do not try to time the market
3. I am not sitting on cash

But hot damn! Just look at the chart! Both the dotcom and the housing bubbles peaked at S&P 1500. What are we doing hanging out above 3000? Are we not due something??

Image: https://i.imgur.com/WSIDkBX.png


jimbeam
USA Fan
University of LSU
Member since Oct 2011
57897 posts
 Online 

re: How is this market sustainable (long term outlook)?
P/E?
This post was edited on 11/7 at 2:03 pm


b-rab2
LSU Fan
N. Louisiana
Member since Dec 2005
11702 posts

re: How is this market sustainable (long term outlook)?
buybacks, fed propping.


Shepherd88
Member since Dec 2013
2782 posts

re: How is this market sustainable (long term outlook)?
There’s literally nowhere else to invest. Even tangible assets like art and collectibles are at high valuations.

When Europe gets their shite together and interest rates begin to rise again then we will prob see a good correction just from folks rebalancing.


Decisions
LSU Fan
Member since Mar 2015
1060 posts

re: How is this market sustainable (long term outlook)?
quote:

When Europe gets their shite together


Image: https://s.marketwatch.com/public/resources/images/MW-ER255_non_pe_NS_20160712090009.jpg


When? I’m feeling like it’s more of an “if” at this point.

The U.S. is at ~1% non-performing loans, btw.
This post was edited on 11/7 at 2:48 pm


mrgreenpants
Ohio State Fan
paisaland
Member since Mar 2018
280 posts

re: How is this market sustainable (long term outlook)?
quote:

buybacks, fed propping.


buy during dips where everyone is scared the world will end... then sell and play options when you see "new highs" on the teli


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02
barry
Cincinnati Fan
Location, Location, Location
Member since Aug 2006
47314 posts

re: How is this market sustainable (long term outlook)?
Look at your own chart. You see any major dips from 1975 to 1999?

This chart means nothing as far as potential for a recession.


OleWarSkuleAlum
Alabama Fan
Member since Dec 2013
8226 posts

re: How is this market sustainable (long term outlook)?
quote:

P/E?


Exactly the P/E is low historically speaking right now.


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03
mrgreenpants
Ohio State Fan
paisaland
Member since Mar 2018
280 posts

re: How is this market sustainable (long term outlook)?
Image: https://i.postimg.cc/yxH8x13g/22.png






not sure if serious...
..but posted chart anyways.

i'm certain anyone on this thread can see the dips or figure out where they should buy/sell. (if unsure google "chart reading")

i said nothing about "calling" recessions..
i tried to say..buy when on sale.. and then sell when overpriced.

in a true free market... we're gonns have booms and busts.
its ok.


recession:
quote:

In economics, a recession is a business cycle contraction which results in a general slowdown in economic activity.

quote:

In the United Kingdom, it is defined as a negative economic growth for two consecutive quarters.
This post was edited on 11/7 at 4:34 pm


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12
DaleBrown
LSU Fan
Slidell la
Member since May 2019
1176 posts

re: How is this market sustainable (long term outlook)?
It’s all relative.

Check historic PE ratio’s, divident yields, etc.

We’re not at historic levels.... yet


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mrgreenpants
Ohio State Fan
paisaland
Member since Mar 2018
280 posts

re: How is this market sustainable (long term outlook)?
well.

i'm expecting volume to drop substantially now that the robinhood glitch has been fizzed


LINK


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10
Shepherd88
Member since Dec 2013
2782 posts

re: How is this market sustainable (long term outlook)?
I don’t disagree. I feel like the socialist governments that are implemented in Europe are really being overlooked at how it’s hurt their economy as well.


CajunTiger92
LSU Fan
Member since Dec 2007
1910 posts

re: How is this market sustainable (long term outlook)?
That chart looks to me like a market that is beginning a new leg up.


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Decisions
LSU Fan
Member since Mar 2015
1060 posts

re: How is this market sustainable (long term outlook)?
Britain and Greece were only the beginning, IMO.

The lack of currency control (i.e. debasing) is only going to hurt worse for Greece and the other debtors moving forward. They’re not going to continue to take austerity measures in perpetuity and will likely leave prior to being forced out.

On the flip side Germany/France/etc are only going to grow more tired and less able to foot the bill of the debtors as their native populations age into net takers, not earners (this is true across ALL of Europe and most of the first world. Age demographics will be awful very shortly)
This post was edited on 11/7 at 6:04 pm


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40
notsince98
Missouri Fan
KC, MO
Member since Oct 2012
11181 posts

re: How is this market sustainable (long term outlook)?
I don't know of a growth of any kind that is sustainable.


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31
Boring
Member since Feb 2019
339 posts

re: How is this market sustainable (long term outlook)?
As primarily a buy/hold long-term investor, times like this kinda suck. Maxed out my retirement account contributions for the year, I won't sell and realize the gains, and at the same time I can't get a good deal on anything for my other brokerage accounts

A big red day would actually be nice to scoop up some stuff on the cheap.


Jag_Warrior
Virginia Fan
Virginia
Member since May 2015
1184 posts

re: How is this market sustainable (long term outlook)?
quote:

As primarily a buy/hold long-term investor, times like this kinda suck.


A friend of mine is much like you. I've been helping him to understand the benefits of selling puts at/under prices that he'd be content to pay for certain equities. If the short puts don't hit, he keeps the premiums... and does it again. If they do hit, that's where he'd have bought anyway... AND he keeps the premiums.

Other than not having an understanding of the options market, I can't understand why buy & hold type investors don't do more of this.


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20
Azazello
Tennessee Fan
Member since Sep 2011
2749 posts
 Online 

re: How is this market sustainable (long term outlook)?
Sell put options.

Edit****

See Jag for rationale
This post was edited on 11/9 at 6:54 pm


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10
RoyalWe
LSU Fan
Prairieville, LA
Member since Mar 2018
668 posts
 Online 

re: How is this market sustainable (long term outlook)?
Professional worriers will always find a way to worry. If it's not inverted yield curves then it's rebounding term premiums.

The "all time highs" is another angle that is not supported by data. Strategas Research Partners' analysis found that in the six months following record highs, declines of 10% or more happened in less than 5% of observations since 1950. Mebane Faber at Cambria Investment Management researched the topic back in the 1920s and found the concern to be unfounded acknowledging that 'all time highs' are nothing to be afraid of. Suck it, bears.


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PUB
New Orleans
Member since Sep 2017
4000 posts

re: How is this market sustainable (long term outlook)?
P/E at 26 not historical average at 16.8


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