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Started By
Message
How is this market sustainable (long term outlook)?
Posted on 11/7/19 at 1:59 pm
Posted on 11/7/19 at 1:59 pm
1. I am not a "doomsdayer."
2. I do not try to time the market
3. I am not sitting on cash
But hot damn! Just look at the chart! Both the dotcom and the housing bubbles peaked at S&P 1500. What are we doing hanging out above 3000? Are we not due something??
2. I do not try to time the market
3. I am not sitting on cash
But hot damn! Just look at the chart! Both the dotcom and the housing bubbles peaked at S&P 1500. What are we doing hanging out above 3000? Are we not due something??
9
Posted on 11/7/19 at 2:02 pm to bayoubengals88
P/E?
This post was edited on 11/7/19 at 2:03 pm
Posted on 11/7/19 at 2:13 pm to bayoubengals88
buybacks, fed propping.
Posted on 11/7/19 at 2:36 pm to bayoubengals88
There’s literally nowhere else to invest. Even tangible assets like art and collectibles are at high valuations.
When Europe gets their shite together and interest rates begin to rise again then we will prob see a good correction just from folks rebalancing.
When Europe gets their shite together and interest rates begin to rise again then we will prob see a good correction just from folks rebalancing.
Posted on 11/7/19 at 2:45 pm to Shepherd88
quote:
When Europe gets their shite together
When? I’m feeling like it’s more of an “if” at this point.
The U.S. is at ~1% non-performing loans, btw.
This post was edited on 11/7/19 at 2:48 pm
Posted on 11/7/19 at 2:53 pm to b-rab2
quote:
buybacks, fed propping.
buy during dips where everyone is scared the world will end... then sell and play options when you see "new highs" on the teli
Posted on 11/7/19 at 3:05 pm to bayoubengals88
Look at your own chart. You see any major dips from 1975 to 1999?
This chart means nothing as far as potential for a recession.
This chart means nothing as far as potential for a recession.
Posted on 11/7/19 at 3:42 pm to jimbeam
quote:
P/E?
Exactly the P/E is low historically speaking right now.
Posted on 11/7/19 at 3:49 pm to barry
not sure if serious...
..but posted chart anyways.
i'm certain anyone on this thread can see the dips or figure out where they should buy/sell. (if unsure google "chart reading")
i said nothing about "calling" recessions..
i tried to say..buy when on sale.. and then sell when overpriced.
in a true free market... we're gonns have booms and busts.
its ok.
recession:
quote:
In economics, a recession is a business cycle contraction which results in a general slowdown in economic activity.
quote:
In the United Kingdom, it is defined as a negative economic growth for two consecutive quarters.
This post was edited on 11/7/19 at 4:34 pm
Posted on 11/7/19 at 4:19 pm to bayoubengals88
It’s all relative.
Check historic PE ratio’s, divident yields, etc.
We’re not at historic levels.... yet
Check historic PE ratio’s, divident yields, etc.
We’re not at historic levels.... yet
Posted on 11/7/19 at 5:29 pm to SlidellCajun
Posted on 11/7/19 at 5:33 pm to Decisions
I don’t disagree. I feel like the socialist governments that are implemented in Europe are really being overlooked at how it’s hurt their economy as well.
Posted on 11/7/19 at 5:43 pm to bayoubengals88
That chart looks to me like a market that is beginning a new leg up.
Posted on 11/7/19 at 5:59 pm to Shepherd88
Britain and Greece were only the beginning, IMO.
The lack of currency control (i.e. debasing) is only going to hurt worse for Greece and the other debtors moving forward. They’re not going to continue to take austerity measures in perpetuity and will likely leave prior to being forced out.
On the flip side Germany/France/etc are only going to grow more tired and less able to foot the bill of the debtors as their native populations age into net takers, not earners (this is true across ALL of Europe and most of the first world. Age demographics will be awful very shortly)
The lack of currency control (i.e. debasing) is only going to hurt worse for Greece and the other debtors moving forward. They’re not going to continue to take austerity measures in perpetuity and will likely leave prior to being forced out.
On the flip side Germany/France/etc are only going to grow more tired and less able to foot the bill of the debtors as their native populations age into net takers, not earners (this is true across ALL of Europe and most of the first world. Age demographics will be awful very shortly)
This post was edited on 11/7/19 at 6:04 pm
Posted on 11/8/19 at 7:46 am to bayoubengals88
I don't know of a growth of any kind that is sustainable.
Posted on 11/8/19 at 7:52 am to bayoubengals88
As primarily a buy/hold long-term investor, times like this kinda suck. Maxed out my retirement account contributions for the year, I won't sell and realize the gains, and at the same time I can't get a good deal on anything for my other brokerage accounts 
A big red day would actually be nice to scoop up some stuff on the cheap.
A big red day would actually be nice to scoop up some stuff on the cheap.
Posted on 11/9/19 at 4:55 pm to Boring
quote:
As primarily a buy/hold long-term investor, times like this kinda suck.
A friend of mine is much like you. I've been helping him to understand the benefits of selling puts at/under prices that he'd be content to pay for certain equities. If the short puts don't hit, he keeps the premiums... and does it again. If they do hit, that's where he'd have bought anyway... AND he keeps the premiums.
Other than not having an understanding of the options market, I can't understand why buy & hold type investors don't do more of this.
Posted on 11/9/19 at 6:52 pm to Boring
Sell put options.
Edit****
See Jag for rationale
Edit****
See Jag for rationale
This post was edited on 11/9/19 at 6:54 pm
Posted on 11/10/19 at 7:15 pm to bayoubengals88
Professional worriers will always find a way to worry. If it's not inverted yield curves then it's rebounding term premiums.
The "all time highs" is another angle that is not supported by data. Strategas Research Partners' analysis found that in the six months following record highs, declines of 10% or more happened in less than 5% of observations since 1950. Mebane Faber at Cambria Investment Management researched the topic back in the 1920s and found the concern to be unfounded acknowledging that 'all time highs' are nothing to be afraid of. Suck it, bears.
The "all time highs" is another angle that is not supported by data. Strategas Research Partners' analysis found that in the six months following record highs, declines of 10% or more happened in less than 5% of observations since 1950. Mebane Faber at Cambria Investment Management researched the topic back in the 1920s and found the concern to be unfounded acknowledging that 'all time highs' are nothing to be afraid of. Suck it, bears.
Posted on 11/12/19 at 10:05 am to jimbeam
P/E at 26 not historical average at 16.8
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