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re: Foreclosures surge 181%, Market has worst start since 1942. Nasdaq worst month since 2008
Posted on 5/2/22 at 2:15 pm to Jjdoc
Posted on 5/2/22 at 2:15 pm to Jjdoc
quote:
don't. My reason for that is that last week we had a pop on the day that the GDP was announced and it was negative 1.4%.
In the OP you said
quote:
If they change to a lower amount (because they have to raise it) I believe the market will react positively to that news. It will also keep the direction of pulling back inflation.
I don't think it's been baked in either.
But I also don't think the market will react positively to a smaller increase. In fact, I think the market will freak out.
In fact, it would not surprise me if the market capitulates on this news.
Because it would be clear at this point that there is a tremendous amount of uncertainty. And nothing spells red losses like uncertainty.
quote:
We are in massive trouble
Yup. I think it's going to get a lot worse in the near term. We are going to have bubbles popping all over the place.
1
Posted on 5/2/22 at 2:19 pm to ronricks
quote:
You also get higher interest rates.
yes...
quote:
You can have the same exact payment at a cheaper purchase price with higher interest rate as you would a more expensive purchase price at a lower interest rate
Not if you already own your home.
If you purchased a home @ 400K that 3 years ago was 200K, you are going to upside down in that home by the end of this year.
If the job market crashes (and it always does in a recession) and your pay goes down, you are not going to be able to refinance your way out of it. Selling it will leave you in the hole.
And that will increase foreclosures.
Posted on 5/2/22 at 2:20 pm to LSUFanHouston
quote:
don't think it's been baked in either.
But I also don't think the market will react positively to a smaller increase. In fact, I think the market will freak out.
In fact, it would not surprise me if the market capitulates on this news.
Because it would be clear at this point that there is a tremendous amount of uncertainty. And nothing spells red losses like uncertainty.
It may. We will know by the end of the week.
Posted on 5/2/22 at 2:28 pm to Jjdoc
quote:it's sad you people can't see the forest for the trees. they have done and gotten exactly what they wanted.
Either they did not act intentionally or they are very incompetent at their jobs and need replacing.
Posted on 5/2/22 at 3:08 pm to Jjdoc
quote:
I believe 2 things are possible: 1- If they go through with 50 basis points, the market and thus the value of stocks will drop. All things mentioned above will worsen rapidly.
They’ll raise .50 with near 100% certainty, and the market will probably go up on The idea the Fed is staying predictable - like it did after the March meeting.
If they raise .75+ the market might swallow it too, but if they raise anything less than .50, tomorrow will be a relative blood bath IMO.
Basically, I have the exact opposite opinions as you do.
Posted on 5/2/22 at 3:11 pm to LSUFanHouston
quote:
The key is going to be how much of the last few years were fixed rate... hopefully most of it was.
Wouldn't it have been? Rates were at their lowest ever. Why would people be messing around with adjustable rates when you could get a fixed rate below 4% all day?
Posted on 5/2/22 at 3:31 pm to JohnnyKilroy
quote:
Why would people be messing around with adjustable rates when you could get a fixed rate below 4% all day?
Because with prices what they were... they needed 2.7% to qualify on DTI.
Like I said... I'm not sure how widespread it is but it does seem like a lot of people stretched themselves recently.
Posted on 5/2/22 at 3:48 pm to JohnnyKilroy
quote:
Wouldn't it have been? Rates were at their lowest ever. Why would people be messing around with adjustable rates when you could get a fixed rate below 4% all day?
Many reasons people would choose a 7 yr ARM. Let's see 1.625% fixed for 7 years, yeah that's attractive. In 7 years someone would, if it were there expected retirement home, would likely have the resources to pay the mortgage off if they don't like the reset rate. Most people don't stay in homes more than 7 years, etc.
Also disagree about some huge value decline in residential housing due to the fact there is still a very large imbalance on the supply side, ie not enough SFRs available for purchase. May be some downward price pressure but not $100k's worth for $400 - 800k SFR range. And the stock market is forward looking, Fed has been broadcasting what they are doing for months now and it shouldn't be a surprise.
I find it interesting that my largest equity holding by far, SCHD, has declined over 50% less YTD as of 4/29 compared to VOO the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF and I was crazy enough to acquire 5k shares of PDO @ $16.04, come on in the water is fine.
Posted on 5/2/22 at 3:58 pm to TorchtheFlyingTiger
quote:
How do you get foreclosed on a 10+ year old mortgage in a seller's market?
HELOC, refi every 3 years to get equity out to be able to afford the boat and tahoe.
Posted on 5/2/22 at 4:13 pm to Jjdoc
quote:
Foreclosures surge 181%
Don't worry. Blackrock will buy them and drive the prices of homes even higher causing less people to be able to afford buying.
Posted on 5/2/22 at 5:42 pm to Jjdoc
S&P worst four month start to a year since 1939
Posted on 5/2/22 at 6:49 pm to slackster
quote:
They’ll raise .50 with near 100% certainty, and the market will probably go up on The idea the Fed is staying predictable - like it did after the March meeting.
If they raise .75+ the market might swallow it too, but if they raise anything less than .50, tomorrow will be a relative blood bath IMO.
Basically, I have the exact opposite opinions as you do.
One of us will be right... but either way, we predict up if we are right!
I will take it!
Posted on 5/2/22 at 8:56 pm to Jjdoc
JFC man how many of these threads are you going to start on a daily basis?
Posted on 5/2/22 at 9:55 pm to boogiewoogie1978
quote:
Blackrock will buy them and drive the prices of homes even higher causing less people to be able to afford buying.
What would be some triggers for a reversal on home value appreciation?
Whether your consumer (who needs housing) is buying or renting when the cost of housing outpaces income too rapidly the landlords' ability to get returns on investment will suffer.
Sustainable growth isn't exponential and requires economic stability. Property values have escalated very rapidly. And I don't believe we are staring down the barrel of sustained economic growth.
Posted on 5/3/22 at 4:22 am to skewbs
quote:
JFC man how many of these threads are you going to start on a daily basis?
We have a contingent on here who are desperate for a housing crash
It’s wishcasting. Supply isn’t changing anytime soon and while the astronomical year over year price increases will slow down and prices either level off or even slightly drop they will be negated by interest rate increases. People just can’t accept this for some reason. If you can’t afford to buy sit it out until we do have a ‘crash’. There are people who have been sitting it out for 7 years now and they missed out on historical low rates and have watched prices skyrocket. What’s waiting another 2 or 3 years at this point?
Posted on 5/3/22 at 6:02 am to I Bleed Garnet
quote:
This is not going to end well.
08 will look like nothing compared to this
This won't be as bad as 08. A lot fewer people are upside down and Blackrock will scoop up the excess inventory. (Which will make the pain long term.)
Posted on 5/3/22 at 7:32 am to Bestbank Tiger
quote:
This won't be as bad as 08. A lot fewer people are upside down and Blackrock will scoop up the excess inventory. (Which will make the pain long term.)
I agree that it won’t be like 08. With incremental increases in rates, The housing market is going to adjust rather than crash.
08 was a different issue. Low rates, good economy and low lending standards field and increase In properties. Prices shot up and people were buying because prices were shooting up. Low info loans threw “cheap” money to flood the market and fuel the more buying but with people who couldn’t pay it back. The fuse was lit.
What we’re seeing today is different and more market doing what a market should do . Raise rates incrementally, cause a slowdown rather than a crash into the wall.
This post was edited on 5/3/22 at 8:50 am
Posted on 5/3/22 at 7:54 am to skewbs
quote:
JFC man how many of these threads are you going to start on a daily basis?
I agree...getting excessive on the doomcasting.
It's like he wants a crash for some strange reason...probably so he can blame his issues on something else.
Posted on 5/3/22 at 8:23 am to molsusports
quote:
What would be some triggers for a reversal on home value appreciation?
Whether your consumer (who needs housing) is buying or renting when the cost of housing outpaces income too rapidly the landlords' ability to get returns on investment will suffer.
Sustainable growth isn't exponential and requires economic stability. Property values have escalated very rapidly. And I don't believe we are staring down the barrel of sustained economic growth.
You're looking at it from a money perspective. After the Twitter fiasco I'm not sure everything entities like Blackrock does is to make money. It's more about power.
Posted on 5/3/22 at 9:02 am to boogiewoogie1978
quote:
It's more about power.
I agree. They seemingly do not care what they pay for them.
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