re: Foreclosures surge 181%, Market has worst start since 1942. Nasdaq worst month since 2008

Each day you come with some negative thread about the market, economy, or housing. It's just a reproduction of all the articles I (and probably many others) get every day from Fortune, WSJ, CNBC, FoxBiz.

I’ll just leave this here. I’m not saying I don’t think we are heading toward a recession. But from my direct experience over the years, when every single expert, media outlet and news publication is predicting something will occur... when it's all they talk about and report on constantly... when you're 100% certain it's going to happen... when it's staring you in the face and so obvious... when all your friends discuss it all day... and when all signs point to it being a sure thing... guess what - the thing you knew would happen does not happen (or does not happen in the manner you thought it would).

Only time will tell, but I for one am not panicking. I’m actually excited to watch this play out. Buffet almost had a record quarter for buying/purchases; I’ll continue buying as well. Remember stocks are on sale, and if they fall further in the coming months, it’s an even better sale.

I will say one other thing - you've told us your strategy in multiple threads so I am appreciative of that. I do respect when someone lays out specifically what they are doing, regardless of if I disagree

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I am ignorant and am unable to anticipate market movements

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Don't feel bad, anyone that tells you they know which way the market is heading is trying to sell you something.

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So I'll just keep investing knowing I'm not touching the money for another 20+ years

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The best way to invest is to do exactly this

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For those of you who want a devils advocate POV.

possible housing deflation

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That was frustrating to watch, large he use he kept omitting relevant facts that worked against his thesis. For example, he talks about the record number of new housing being built, but this ignores the fact that these are largely multi family housing, not the single family homes that the home price indexes largely track. In addition, it ignores the fact that this follows over a decade of not building enough housing, and it’s going to take a long time to come even close to get to some level of equilibrium.

In addition, he talks about the eviction moratorium, as if that was a major factor in supply, but that was largely in the rental market, not the home buying market. So that wouldn’t have much impact.

He also talks about the baby boomers aging out of their homes, and predicts that is going to be a factor. But this is a nonsense because this should have been happening for the last decade, and it’s largely not happened. Furthermore, except for death, those baby boomers who do decide to sell, still have to live somewhere, so the additional supply of their homes, will be offset by the demand for whatever homes the sellers are looking to buy.

Now rising rates should slow demand; however, this also puts downward pressure on supply, as those who might otherwise decide to sell, but don’t have to sell, are less likely to sell because they have such favorable rates instead of buying another home at much higher rates. This is one of the reasons boomers likely haven’t downsized like expected in the last decade, and with much higher rates relative to their current rates, this is probably more likely. Which just blows up his boomer argument.

Regardless, demand has been so much higher than supply, that there has to be some drastic changes in both supply and demand just to get to some equilibrium point where prices just stay relatively flat, let alone decrease.

I follow a lot of economists who focus on housing, and that whole segment is just so counter to the research and data, that I would never take that guy seriously again, and his prediction of a significant housing price crash, is even worse than his anti-empirical arguments. And it’s even worse when he draws parallels to the Great Recession, an ahistorical comparison.

Overall, price increases NEED to slow dramatically, but I’m confident barring some black swan event that likely has nothing to do with housing, that causes some severe worldwide recession, I don’t see a drop in prices happening anytime soon, let alone a large drop like he predicts in the near future. And even then, housing prices, other than in the Great Recession, have been among the least impacted assets in a number of recessions, sometimes not even decreasing whatsoever.