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Federal debt

Posted on 7/18/25 at 4:56 pm
Posted by Florida_Man1981
Member since Jan 2024
541 posts
Posted on 7/18/25 at 4:56 pm
When do you think it finally goes bust and what do you think that looks like?

I think 2030 - 2035 and we'll see reduced benefits across the board combined with double digit inflation.

No real clue though. Maybe we'll just be like Japan and run 200% debt to GDP and roll.
Posted by kywildcatfanone
Wildcat Country!
Member since Oct 2012
136667 posts
Posted on 7/18/25 at 6:14 pm to
Just fix wasted spending like Trump is already doing. Get people who have gotten generational benefits back to work.
Posted by lsuconnman
Baton rouge
Member since Feb 2007
4556 posts
Posted on 7/18/25 at 6:38 pm to
Isn’t it just an exercise to reversion to the mean?

We need to eliminate the defense spending and invest that money in enforcement, which use to provide protection, which is a service colonies, I mean countries will cheerily pay.
Posted by beaverfever
Arkansas
Member since Jan 2008
35558 posts
Posted on 7/18/25 at 6:45 pm to
quote:

When do you think it finally goes bust and what do you think that looks like?
You’re seeing it right now. If someone isn’t paying attention they won’t know the difference. All the checks will clear. The purchasing power of those checks will be how the problem is remedied.
Posted by TX_Tiger23
Seabrook, Texas
Member since Aug 2013
109 posts
Posted on 7/18/25 at 7:02 pm to
Both sides are spending like they have a never ending piggy bank. Look at the deficit in 2023. Then compare it to 2025. Here it is…$1.7 trillion for 2023 and $1.9 trillion for 2025.

It’s not good, which I believe is the original posters point.
Posted by TigerFanatic99
South Bend, Indiana
Member since Jan 2007
35018 posts
Posted on 7/19/25 at 4:20 am to
At the very least over the next 20 or 30 years we're going to learn a lot about how realistic MMT actually is.
Posted by Florida_Man1981
Member since Jan 2024
541 posts
Posted on 7/19/25 at 6:22 am to
quote:

At the very least over the next 20 or 30 years we're going to learn a lot about how realistic MMT actually is.


Yep I'm not a prepper buy buying 40 acres in southern Colorado. Always wanted some land and figure now is the time.
Posted by KennytheTiger
bella vista ar
Member since Apr 2012
469 posts
Posted on 7/19/25 at 9:52 am to
Just fix wasted spending like Trump is already doing.
________

You are on the wrong board. Lol. Dumbest comment I have read today.

The big beautiful bill adds more to national debt than any other legislation in the history of our country.
Posted by SuperSaint
Sorting Out OT BS Since '2007'
Member since Sep 2007
148658 posts
Posted on 7/19/25 at 9:53 am to
quote:

Just fix wasted spending like Trump is already doing.
but is he?
Posted by RollTide4Ever
Nashville
Member since Nov 2006
19731 posts
Posted on 7/19/25 at 4:25 pm to
Def. Early next decade.
Posted by NC_Tigah
Make Orwell Fiction Again
Member since Sep 2003
135967 posts
Posted on 7/19/25 at 6:04 pm to
quote:

When do you think it finally goes bust and what do you think that looks like?
When a Treasury Auction or two fail.
Posted by Bard
Definitely NOT an admin
Member since Oct 2008
58106 posts
Posted on 7/19/25 at 9:06 pm to
All things remaining the same, it wouldn't be until sometime after 2035.

With deficit spending predicted to eventually move above $2T/year by ~2030, servicing is going to be an increasing percentage of the budget (likely being the single largest item by 2030). Once we get to that point, there's no return as the amount needing to be borrowed just to service the debt will be the largest deficit driver, making it an irreversible snowball (irreversible because the amount of spending needing to be cut will never be done because it would piss off so many voters that those voting for it would never win another election ever again).

Along with that, as debt continues to pile up we're going to see the Treasury have to offer increasingly more interest just to attract enough buyers for the auction to not fail. That too drives up the debt by driving up servicing costs.
Posted by HailHailtoMichigan!
Mission Viejo, CA
Member since Mar 2012
73335 posts
Posted on 7/20/25 at 1:47 am to
The fact that reducing the *increase* in Medicaid spending from 5% to 3% caused a political meltdown, low hanging fruit cuts to pbs, npr, and foreign aid likewise caused a meltdown, is not a good sign that there will be much political will to reduce debt in the 2030s.

Tax increases won’t come close to addressing the federal debt.

It’s 3 items driving it: Medicaid, Medicare, and ss

Ss trust fund runs out in 2034. Dems will want to “fix” this by lifting the cap on payroll taxes, that’s a huge political headache.
Posted by Ten Bears
Florida
Member since Oct 2018
4779 posts
Posted on 7/20/25 at 9:02 am to
quote:

Just fix wasted spending like Trump is already doing.


Jeebus, make the stupid stop.

Posted by KWL85
Member since Mar 2023
3268 posts
Posted on 7/20/25 at 9:19 am to
quote:
Just fix wasted spending like Trump is already doing.
______________

but is he?
__________

The guy you are responding to is clueless. Anyone that thinks he is fixing wasted spending is just a kool-aid drinker not interested in the truth. It is fact that he is adding more to our debt than any president in our history. It is sad that the concept of DOGE could have been significant if done correctly.
Posted by UltimaParadox
North Carolina
Member since Nov 2008
51956 posts
Posted on 7/20/25 at 9:21 am to
Could have been much easier politically to let the tax cuts expire instead we extended them forever

It's clear the only path is a combination of increased taxes and reduced spending.

However even the supposed fiscal conservatives in charge right now won't do either.

I think we are heading towards a Japan situation in the next 30 years especially if we slow down immigration. Because we sure as hell are not going to have any population growth without immigration
Posted by HailHailtoMichigan!
Mission Viejo, CA
Member since Mar 2012
73335 posts
Posted on 7/20/25 at 9:40 am to
quote:

Could have been much easier politically to let the tax cuts expire instead we extended them forever



Letting the TCJA expire would have amounted to the largest single tax increase on Americans in the history of the United States. It would have been political suicide. Even if dems had power right now, they would maybe have only let it expire for the top earners, and that extra tax revenue would have been spent on new goodies rather than pay down the debt.

There is nothing fiscally conservative about raising taxes and not cutting spending.

I am not against tax increases per se to address the debt, but tax revenue as a % of gdp right now is about where it has been on average since the 1960s. Even if you raise taxes to only address half the issue, that would push taxes as a % of gdp to highest on record.

The elephant in the room is the explosion in entitlement spending. We had a golden opportunity in 2005 to fix some of the issues by passing W’s plan to invest social security funds, and unfortunately it did not pass.

Here is how bad the situation is: lifting the tax cap on ss would only buy ss an extra 4 years of solvency.


What makes matters worse is that we have vast swaths of elderly Americans who chose to just live on ss payments rather than develop a nest egg in their working years. Reforming ss would be a lot easier if grandma did the right thing and saved money. But alas
Posted by TheDeerHunter
Deer woods
Member since Jun 2025
278 posts
Posted on 7/20/25 at 9:51 am to
Your post nails it. Congress voted to reduce a slew of federal employee benefits and increase contributions only to be killed by RINOs in Senate.
Posted by UltimaParadox
North Carolina
Member since Nov 2008
51956 posts
Posted on 7/20/25 at 9:59 am to
quote:

Congress voted to reduce a slew of federal employee benefits and increase contributions only to be killed by RINOs in Senate.


I'm not sure the federal employee benefits amount to much. During all these supposed cuts to the federal workforce in the last few months, which btw has not been a large % of the workforce at this time. And I'm not sure Congress has the appetite to keep cutting

Actual federal employee benefits apparently overhauled in the 1980s, their current benefits system is not as expensive or lucrative as I thought

Not sure they are making much of a dent in the spending by cutting there compared to the big ticket items... The big 3 and defense
Posted by boogiewoogie1978
Little Rock
Member since Aug 2012
19533 posts
Posted on 7/21/25 at 7:55 am to
quote:

When do you think it finally goes bust and what do you think that looks like?

That's when we go to World War III. Only way to clear it.
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