re: Fed rate hike or pause?

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given that Core PCE was 4.7%

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Sounds like hawkish hike lol. Dude is fixed on getting 2%.

Your link goes to my post.

Lol that you believe that calculation.

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Lol that you believe that calculation.

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are you saying the calculation changed from last year to this year?

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I'm saying an administration that's consistently revised the definition of recession to avoid negative publicity can't be trusted to give out correct information.

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They didn’t revise the definition of recession.

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given that Core PCE was 4.7% YOY and trending downward.

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Not trending downward MoM

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Guys that metric everyone uses isn't what we're going to use. Ok?

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It's neither the "official" definition of a recession, and everybody doesn't uses it, since the economists who, you know, study these things, don't use it. It's a "rule of thumb," and it's typically associated with recessions. But it also would have inaccurately identified the start dates of multiple recessions, because it doesn't take into account other important things like unemployment.

Also if there was a recession, then the fed would likely cut rates. Is that what you wanted them to do? Cut rates in 2022, or at the very least, stop increasing them?

I don't need a vet to tell me a horse has a broken leg. I can look at the horse and tell it has a broken leg.

I can look at two negative GDP quarters and tell an economy isn't doing so hot. Like everyone. I don't need a governing body trying to baffle me with bullshite and a high powered spin machine.

A handful of people knew who the NBER was prior to 2022, now they're the alpha and the omega of recessions. Just speaks to the hubris inside the beltway.

Hell yes, they should have started years ago.

Fed raised rate ¼ point.
.25%.
25 basis points.

Can you feel the inflation curbing? Can you?

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I'm not sure why you think he should do something more dramatic, given that Core PCE was 4.7% YOY and trending downward.

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I think I explained it fairly well with the band-aid analogy. It's the difference between sharp but short-lasting pain versus less pain stretched out over a long period. That's actually worse for the economy long-term because it creates more inflation because the inflation is staying higher longer.

Using Core right now is a bit blind. While energy has dropped in many instances, gasoline has increased every month since December. Food still continues to increase in many instances. While they are excluded from Core because of their volatility, their sustained high rates are driving the stickiness we see with Inflation (including Core). This is an instance where you simply cannot discount food and energy.

Regardless, PCE was up and that's the wrong direction. While it will likely be down with the next numbers, it probably won't be by much due to the stickiness factor (which also includes the shitload of money the government is spending).

Volcker had similar issues with high and very sticky inflation. It wasn't until he raised rates to roughly double inflation that they were able to finally counter the stickiness.

There are a LOT of differences between this event and that of the early 1980s as well as how inflation is gauged, but had Powell done something similar I think we would likely be much farther along in getting inflation back to 2%. Instead, he's been trying to take the slow approach and it's only had marginal success. It usually takes around a year to see the real impact of rate increases and they didn't start raising them until March of last year. The March numbers in April will begin to tell how successful his approach has been.