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Started By
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Fed rate hike or pause?
Posted on 3/22/23 at 7:03 am
Posted on 3/22/23 at 7:03 am
what happens if they pause?
6
Posted on 3/22/23 at 7:14 am to Pezzo
A .25 increase today is pretty much a lock.
The thing to pay attention to today is what Powell says about how the Fed feels about the way things are going. If he uses enough positive language to indicate a pause is possible for May, expect the bulls to run hard.
The thing to pay attention to today is what Powell says about how the Fed feels about the way things are going. If he uses enough positive language to indicate a pause is possible for May, expect the bulls to run hard.
Posted on 3/22/23 at 7:28 am to Bard
Is inflation at 2% ?
Posted on 3/22/23 at 8:50 am to Bard
What time is the announcement? And what is an easy way to profit off this - flip some SPY options quickly?
Posted on 3/22/23 at 9:33 am to kung fu kenny
just set you're money on fire and enjoy the cool looking flames
Posted on 3/22/23 at 9:44 am to Bard
quote:
A .25 increase today is pretty much a lock.
The thing to pay attention to today is what Powell says about how the Fed feels about the way things are going. If he uses enough positive language to indicate a pause is possible for May, expect the bulls to run hard.
I tend to agree. However, if he pauses today, I expect the market to dump because they can smell the fear. I expect tons of craziness today unless he hikes 25 points and bangs the same drum of "job not finished" "2%" "stay the course"
This is why investing in the market is a joke. A single man moves the markets in whatever direction they need with QE and QT.
Posted on 3/22/23 at 9:44 am to Pezzo
0.50 hike is my bet, but what he says matters more than what they do.
Posted on 3/22/23 at 9:46 am to seawolf06
quote:
0.50 hike is my bet
We dump 3%-5% today if 5 basis points is the move
Posted on 3/22/23 at 10:52 am to I Love Bama
quote:
We dump 3%-5% today
I wish.
Posted on 3/22/23 at 11:12 am to Gideon Swashbuckler
Really?
Posted on 3/22/23 at 11:18 am to Gideon Swashbuckler
We dump 20% if so
Posted on 3/22/23 at 11:28 am to Pezzo
I’m thinking off to the races after today (unless .50). Today will indicate last of rate hikes and then an eventual cut down the road.
Posted on 3/22/23 at 12:01 pm to Pezzo
Pause with strong language/guidance of 25 to 50 bps at following meeting.
Posted on 3/22/23 at 12:02 pm to I Love Bama
quote:
if 5 basis points is the move
You mean 50?
Posted on 3/22/23 at 12:20 pm to evil cockroach
quote:
Is inflation at 2% ?
Nope. The problem is Powell doesn't have the balls of Volcker, he's afraid of ripping the band-aid off so he's doing the slow-pull method.
Posted on 3/22/23 at 12:23 pm to I Love Bama
quote:
However, if he pauses today, I expect the market to dump because they can smell the fear.
I think it would be the opposite. I think the bulls would be jet-fueled over a pause announcement because the market would see the pause as a sort of official end to the worst of this economic shitshow (part of that would be the speculation that consumers see the pause as a reason to no longer fear bank failures and thus lessen the chance of future runs).
Posted on 3/22/23 at 1:04 pm to Pezzo
looks like 25 basis points with the Fed going with a "playing it Safe" decision
quote:
2 min ago
Fed Raises Rates by Quarter-Point, Suggests an End to Hikes Is Near
By Nicholas Jasinski
The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point, proceeding with its inflation-fighting efforts despite turmoil in the banking system, but a statement from the bank and officials’ economic projections suggested the end of rate increases is near.
The latest move lifts the target for the federal-funds rate to 4.75% to 5%, marking the ninth increase in about a year.
Posted on 3/22/23 at 1:14 pm to Tomatocantender
quote:thank you. yes.
You mean 50?
Posted on 3/22/23 at 1:15 pm to tigeraddict
I dont have access to watch right now, what was his tone of voice?
ready to pause or are we going higher until the job is done
ready to pause or are we going higher until the job is done
Posted on 3/22/23 at 1:23 pm to I Love Bama
quote:
I dont have access to watch right now, what was his tone of voice?
ready to pause or are we going higher until the job is done
quote:
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday enacted a quarter percentage point interest rate increase, expressing caution about the recent banking crisis and indicating that hikes are nearing an end.
CNBC
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