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re: Dow Jones 30 Index closes at a new 2023 high

Posted on 11/30/23 at 9:14 pm to
Posted by bayoudude
Member since Dec 2007
25533 posts
Posted on 11/30/23 at 9:14 pm to
Just more proof it’s all funny money
Posted by Thundercles
Mars
Member since Sep 2010
6043 posts
Posted on 11/30/23 at 9:16 pm to
quote:

Last year about this time on this board the bears were predicting we would all be in the streets eating bread crumbs in 2023.


Guilty as charged. Turns out the markets are just completely detached from main street USA.
Posted by RoyalWe
Prairieville, LA
Member since Mar 2018
3726 posts
Posted on 11/30/23 at 9:18 pm to
I value cost average into a few different funds every quarter. Value cost averaging means that I have a quarterly growth expectation depending on the ETF. If that ETF meets the expectation I do nothing. If it underperforms, I sell bonds and purchase up to my ETF expectation. If it overperforms, I sell down to the expectation and buy bonds. My ETFs of interest are IJR, MVV, and TQQQ. Over time, because of its success, TQQQ dominates my portfolio. Also, because of that, it's very volatile.

With a prolonged bear market, I eventually sell all of my bonds and will be approximately 100% in my ETFs. This is the position I am in now. Also when a significant drop occurs, I restrict myself from selling stocks until I see at least 3 sell signals. This is a mechanism to try to recoup as much of a recovery as possible.

My 401K represents less than 1% of my holdings, but I have been dollar cost averaging into small-cap index funds as my options are limited.

Here is a graph of my 401K + IRA total over time (minus actual amounts), although if you've read any of my commentary you might already know it's in the millions.

You have to have gonads of steel to do this. I lost millions last year. I've gained millions this year. I don't worry about it. It's all mathematical. No emotions involved.



EDIT: I can never determine why I get these downvotes. Do you hate that I answered the question? Do you hate investing? Capitalism? Do you hate people who take risk?
This post was edited on 11/30/23 at 10:04 pm
Posted by RoyalWe
Prairieville, LA
Member since Mar 2018
3726 posts
Posted on 11/30/23 at 9:19 pm to
quote:

TQQQ will do that to you.
Yes, it will.
Posted by notiger1997
Metairie
Member since May 2009
60690 posts
Posted on 11/30/23 at 9:23 pm to
quote:

Uh, our dollars are worth about 75% of what they were worth in January 2021.


If I had a dollar for every time you’ve posted this on this website I could retire
Posted by SloaneRanger
Upper Hurstville
Member since Jan 2014
10865 posts
Posted on 11/30/23 at 9:35 pm to
Just a friendly reminder for when people start talking about all time highs and "big gains" in the market. Somehow this seems to get lost in all these discussions.
Posted by JohnnyKilroy
Cajun Navy Vice Admiral
Member since Oct 2012
38490 posts
Posted on 11/30/23 at 10:44 pm to
You have a 9 figure port baw? Sheesh
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
89682 posts
Posted on 11/30/23 at 11:04 pm to
quote:

Uh, our dollars are worth about 75% of what they were worth in January 2021. That might have something to do with it. If you look at your investments and see that you’re “up” 25% since the start of 2021, guess what? You’re not really up. You’re flat.


Better than being in dollars and actually being down 20-25%, no?
This post was edited on 12/1/23 at 8:11 am
Posted by RoyalWe
Prairieville, LA
Member since Mar 2018
3726 posts
Posted on 12/1/23 at 5:36 am to
quote:

You have a 9 figure port baw?
Negative. It's volatile. High magnitude swings.
Posted by bafflejoe
Member since Feb 2023
72 posts
Posted on 12/1/23 at 6:48 am to
Great news! So tired of hearing that I was doing the wrong thing by keeping my money in the market and NOT taking advantage of a 5% CD rate.
Posted by SloaneRanger
Upper Hurstville
Member since Jan 2014
10865 posts
Posted on 12/1/23 at 8:02 am to
quote:

Better then being in dollars and actually being down 20-25%, no?


No question. Equities have always been considered one of the hedges against inflation. This is an example of that.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
89682 posts
Posted on 12/1/23 at 8:44 am to
Posted by Big Scrub TX
Member since Dec 2013
36916 posts
Posted on 12/1/23 at 3:31 pm to
quote:

I like using the Dow Jones 30 because it gives a different perspective on the stock market because unlike the NASDAQ and the S&P500 Index it is not market cap weighted.

So the DJ30 isn’t heavily dominated by 5 or 6 mega market cap companies such as Apple, Google, Microsoft, Tesla, Amazon and Netflix.
But hasn't a good bit of this effect gone away since it's price weighted? A lot of the mega names stopped having stock splits and so their share prices are higher.

Looking now at the weightings, #1 is United Health - a $500B company with a share price of $550.

#12 is Apple - a $3T company with a share price of $190.

That seems just as distorted as the S and P.

quote:


It contains 30 diversified industrial companies each with the same weight within the index. So, a $1 move in Caterpillar moves the index by the same amount as a $1 change in Microsoft.
Is that even true? Is the "Dow Jones 30" different than just the "Dow Jones"? The way I understand it, the weightings are done on share prices, not equal weights.

LINK
Posted by Big Scrub TX
Member since Dec 2013
36916 posts
Posted on 12/1/23 at 3:33 pm to
quote:


Uh, our dollars are worth about 75% of what they were worth in January 2021. That might have something to do with it. If you look at your investments and see that you’re “up” 25% since the start of 2021, guess what? You’re not really up. You’re flat.
Uh, that's the moving goalpost of the people who kept claiming "markets were down big" and then being shown they weren't.

Posted by Big Scrub TX
Member since Dec 2013
36916 posts
Posted on 12/1/23 at 3:33 pm to
quote:

Turns out the markets are just completely detached from main street USA.
Perhaps more likely, your understanding of main street USA is completely detached from the reality of main street USA.
Posted by JohnnyKilroy
Cajun Navy Vice Admiral
Member since Oct 2012
38490 posts
Posted on 12/1/23 at 6:13 pm to
quote:

Perhaps more likely, your understanding of main street USA is completely detached from the reality of main street USA.



Yea lol.

Not to say everything is roses and things have never been better or anything like that, but in my major metro area there are literally millions of people out and about and shopping, going to restaurants, buying cars, going on vacations, and driving to and from work. At least in my area, things are blowing and going. New developments might not be popping up as quickly as they were a couple years ago, but I still see new projects being started all the time.

Listening to certain people online you'd think we our economy is in its death throes
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
130868 posts
Posted on 12/1/23 at 6:20 pm to
The DowJones30 Index, the oldest, most widely used and admired stock index in the history of the world, closed at a new 2023 high today @ 36,245.50 a mere 554.15 points away from its all-time closing high of 36,799.65 on January 4, 2022.

The little known and deeply flawed S&P500 Index also closed at a new high for 2023 finishing the day at 4,594.63 which is only 201.93 points below its all-time closing high of 4,796.56 on January 3, 2022.
Lets' party like it's 1999!!!
Posted by Big Scrub TX
Member since Dec 2013
36916 posts
Posted on 12/1/23 at 6:53 pm to
quote:

DowJones30
You keep typing this like it's official and/or correct...do you mean something other than the "Dow" or "Dow Jones Industrial Average" with this unusual nomenclature?

Also, I just don't think this claim of yours:

quote:

It contains 30 diversified industrial companies each with the same weight within the index


is correct.

As of today:

UNH is more than 10% of the Dow, but only 1.3% of the S&P 500.

Goldman sachs is 7.4% of the Dow, but only 29bps of the S&P.

It's hard to see how an index that is 18% made up of just 2 companies is somehow an improvement over a market-weighted index.

This post was edited on 12/1/23 at 6:55 pm
Posted by Motownsix
Boise
Member since Oct 2022
2651 posts
Posted on 12/4/23 at 8:07 am to
quote:

ast year about this time on this board the bears were predicting we would all be in the streets eating bread crumbs in 2023.


I wouldn’t describe them as bears as much as they were Poli-board escapees. It’s a completely disingenuous take to try and feed a political narrative. Some baw on the OT yesterday was saying his family couldn’t afford Cheez-it’s because they cost $10 a box. Remember all those posters saying they were going to all cash following the 2020 election.
Posted by Motownsix
Boise
Member since Oct 2022
2651 posts
Posted on 12/4/23 at 8:14 am to
quote:

Not to say everything is roses and things have never been better or anything like that, but in my major metro area there are literally millions of people out and about and shopping, going to restaurants, buying cars, going on vacations, and driving to and from work


I have to track consumer financial health and consumer spending for work. Nothing that I’ve seen in the last two years suggests people can’t afford bread and milk.
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