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Started By
Message
Dollar, VIX & Bond Market Signal Caution Just Ahead
Posted on 2/8/21 at 12:08 pm
Posted on 2/8/21 at 12:08 pm
Both are signaling we are at the tail end of the rally for the time being. VIX is also up while stocks are up, also a warning sign.
Anyone who has been in the markets a decade or more knows that the stock market is a lagging indicator and that the forex and bond market lead everything, including the Fed. The market is bigger than the Fed and leads them around by the nose.
It's getting mighty frothy around here and vets know that this type euphoria signals caution ahead as well. Put to call ratio hasn't been this one sided in favor of calls in 20 years.
Trade safe and eyes wide open everyone.
GL!
Anyone who has been in the markets a decade or more knows that the stock market is a lagging indicator and that the forex and bond market lead everything, including the Fed. The market is bigger than the Fed and leads them around by the nose.
It's getting mighty frothy around here and vets know that this type euphoria signals caution ahead as well. Put to call ratio hasn't been this one sided in favor of calls in 20 years.
Trade safe and eyes wide open everyone.
GL!
8
Posted on 2/8/21 at 12:13 pm to Hussss
Husss calling his bearish prediction =
Posted on 2/8/21 at 12:13 pm to Hussss
Posted on 2/8/21 at 12:16 pm to Hussss
ZOM to $20!!!
Posted on 2/8/21 at 12:17 pm to Hussss
Are you saying that shutting down the economy for a year might have some negative consequences?
Posted on 2/8/21 at 12:29 pm to Hussss
Good thing penny stocks aren't that correlated with the broader market.
Posted on 2/8/21 at 12:30 pm to Hussss
Lock those gains in on things that have made over 100% and don’t get greedy. They are getting ready to take a lot of it back. Don’t let em’!
Bulls make money
Bears make money
Pigs get slaughtered
Bulls make money
Bears make money
Pigs get slaughtered
Posted on 2/8/21 at 12:36 pm to Hussss
I think we have another month or two before any crash as the latest $1,400 stimulus checks get sent out. But at some point yes, there's going to be a massive correction. Whether that is from the Dow at 36K or at 31K is yet to be determined.
Posted on 2/8/21 at 12:39 pm to Hussss
quote:
Hussss
why do you post the numerology conspiracy shite here?
you obviously have market experience.
why the bullshite?
Posted on 2/8/21 at 12:39 pm to jimbeam
quote:
ZOM to $20!!!
What is the realistic expectation for that stock over the next 6 months?
Posted on 2/8/21 at 12:41 pm to Hussss
quote:
Both are signaling we are at the tail end of the rally for the time being. VIX is also up while stocks are up, also a warning sign.
I actually have to disagree with you here. We've seen the big drawdowns recently when the VIX get rubberband coiled. If institutions are buying ATM puts that means they're protected. There has to be an event to unwind all of the net long positioning. Those happen very few and far between. Haven't checked dealer gamma in quite a while but that could be a better indication than VIX at this point. But agree sentiment is way too bullish equities.
Posted on 2/8/21 at 12:41 pm to GeneralLee
I didn’t say crash but there will be a huge drop in March around the 22nd after the S&P runs back up to test 4k making a double top.
They are just going to let some air / froth out this month before lots more to come in March
They are just going to let some air / froth out this month before lots more to come in March
Posted on 2/8/21 at 12:43 pm to Hussss
Are you saying March for any flows/tax reason? Or just guessing on muh feels?
Posted on 2/8/21 at 12:44 pm to Hussss
Theres a guy at work who has been calling for a crash since last march. I learned to do the opposite of what he says. Tells me every day that the market is flat and doing nothing.
Posted on 2/8/21 at 12:51 pm to Hussss
quote:
Anyone who has been in the markets a decade or more knows that the stock market is a lagging indicator and that the forex and bond market lead everything, including the Fed. The market is bigger than the Fed and leads them around by the nose.
You should go "all in" on SDS .... perfect for you Hussss
ProShares UltraShort S&P 500 ETF (NYSE: SDS). It’s a 2x inverse ETF, ... the S&P 500 falls 5%, SDS should go up 10%.
Posted on 2/8/21 at 12:56 pm to wutangfinancial
Positive divergences (RSI rising while price declined) on the dollar (also about to break its downtrend) as well as TLT.
10 yr yield put in a double top today with a nasty red candle coming in.
Giving all this roughly a month to play out plus the symmetry in the SPX = March ugliness
Again, I didn’t say “crash”.... we already had a big m one last March. I’m advising CAUTION.
10 yr yield put in a double top today with a nasty red candle coming in.
Giving all this roughly a month to play out plus the symmetry in the SPX = March ugliness
Again, I didn’t say “crash”.... we already had a big m one last March. I’m advising CAUTION.
Posted on 2/8/21 at 12:58 pm to cgrand
I respect your work and contributions around here. If the numerology stuff offends you, I will be more than happy to oblige ya.
Posted on 2/8/21 at 1:19 pm to Hussss
so, move to cash/bonds? cash is at 2% inflation bonds are practically negative.
dig-currency? volatile too.
i still like a good balanced portfolio of small/mid/big cap etf's(sector based with blue wave in consideration), emerging/international markets and a lil crypto on the side. dollar cost averaged through your "cautionary" periods and the bull runs.
not bashing you're warning, just my thought process
dig-currency? volatile too.
i still like a good balanced portfolio of small/mid/big cap etf's(sector based with blue wave in consideration), emerging/international markets and a lil crypto on the side. dollar cost averaged through your "cautionary" periods and the bull runs.
not bashing you're warning, just my thought process
Posted on 2/10/21 at 9:36 am to Hussss
Bumpity bump bump
Major character change in the market today. Looks like we had a blowoff and then reversal in the IWM.
Major character change in the market today. Looks like we had a blowoff and then reversal in the IWM.
Posted on 2/10/21 at 10:45 am to Hussss
Huss baw I shoulda sold on 2/8
You were right
You were right
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