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Started By
Message
Do you beat the market on average?
Posted on 5/30/18 at 9:33 am
Posted on 5/30/18 at 9:33 am
If so what is your strategy?
Don't mislead by not quantifying fees either, etc. What have been your tried an true methods/strategies.
Don't mislead by not quantifying fees either, etc. What have been your tried an true methods/strategies.
15
Posted on 5/30/18 at 10:22 am to CorkRockingham
quote:
Do you beat the market on average?
quote:
What have been your tried an true methods/strategies
Well if I told you then everyone would know.
Posted on 5/30/18 at 10:47 am to CorkRockingham
quote:
What have been your tried an true methods/strategies.
Yeah, I'm giving that away for free.
Posted on 5/30/18 at 11:17 am to CorkRockingham
I know I will get a ton of down-votes b/c this isn't really a recommended strategy, but it has been consistently working for me and I don't mind sharing...
I have been beating the market the last few years (finally)... I keep it fairly simple:
#1 - I only trade in companies that I have personal experience with in my line of business (typically as a customer) and that I am comfortable "investing" in long term. (even though I don't typically hold)... (I do have a few long term holdings (XOM, etc) that I don't even worry about, they just keep me a little diversified/disciplined, but I don't make much on those usually...)
My strategy is to become very familiar with just 2 or 3 companies/stocks that I view as growth stocks who should trend upwards generally. I then make big swing trades off of short term trends/patterns... So yes I'm trying to time the market, but it's with companies that I would want to invest in no matter what so even if I don't get it right, the general trend of the stock is bullish anyway (when I'm right about the company)...Sometimes I will hold it for a week or 2 even if it goes down, other times I will dump it quickly if my trend prediction was wrong (down 3-5%)... Most of the time though I buy the dips and goes up +5% and I get out and do it again.
So this has worked for me for a few reasons:
I'm not married to the stock.. I will buy and sell huge lots without over thinking it... It's even easier in a roth when you don't even think about taxes...
I mitigate not being diversified at times by often being 100% in cash.... which has luckily worked quite a few times on big down days...
Note, this strategy obviously won't really work in a bear market.... And yes, I'm up a lot more than if I had just held these stocks the whole time, not to mention the advantages of being 100% cash a lot of the time if there had been a bad macro event.
my taxable account I'm YTD +36.02%, 1-year 92.40%, 3-year 21.49%.
my roth IRA I'm YTD 17.59%, 1-year 51.48%, 3-year 16.64%
fire away
I have been beating the market the last few years (finally)... I keep it fairly simple:
#1 - I only trade in companies that I have personal experience with in my line of business (typically as a customer) and that I am comfortable "investing" in long term. (even though I don't typically hold)... (I do have a few long term holdings (XOM, etc) that I don't even worry about, they just keep me a little diversified/disciplined, but I don't make much on those usually...)
My strategy is to become very familiar with just 2 or 3 companies/stocks that I view as growth stocks who should trend upwards generally. I then make big swing trades off of short term trends/patterns... So yes I'm trying to time the market, but it's with companies that I would want to invest in no matter what so even if I don't get it right, the general trend of the stock is bullish anyway (when I'm right about the company)...Sometimes I will hold it for a week or 2 even if it goes down, other times I will dump it quickly if my trend prediction was wrong (down 3-5%)... Most of the time though I buy the dips and goes up +5% and I get out and do it again.
So this has worked for me for a few reasons:
I'm not married to the stock.. I will buy and sell huge lots without over thinking it... It's even easier in a roth when you don't even think about taxes...
I mitigate not being diversified at times by often being 100% in cash.... which has luckily worked quite a few times on big down days...
Note, this strategy obviously won't really work in a bear market.... And yes, I'm up a lot more than if I had just held these stocks the whole time, not to mention the advantages of being 100% cash a lot of the time if there had been a bad macro event.
my taxable account I'm YTD +36.02%, 1-year 92.40%, 3-year 21.49%.
my roth IRA I'm YTD 17.59%, 1-year 51.48%, 3-year 16.64%
fire away
Posted on 5/30/18 at 11:25 am to CorkRockingham
quote:The only time my brokerage accounts beat the market is when the market is down for the year.
Do you beat the market on average?
I like to keep between 15% - 20% cash so when the market is up, the cash holdings drag down the total return but when the market is down the cash props up the return a bit.
Posted on 5/30/18 at 11:53 am to Zilla
Wow, thanks for taking the time to share. three years consistently you have beaten the market.
A couple of questions.
When you say 100% in cash do you mean that you either 100% invested in equities or 100% in a money market account on the sidelines waiting for points of entry?
Secondly, does your strategies differ between your taxable account and your Roth IRA. Why such a big difference in return between the two?
A couple of questions.
When you say 100% in cash do you mean that you either 100% invested in equities or 100% in a money market account on the sidelines waiting for points of entry?
Secondly, does your strategies differ between your taxable account and your Roth IRA. Why such a big difference in return between the two?
Posted on 5/30/18 at 12:08 pm to Zilla
You’re following the basic IBD swing trading rules?
Posted on 5/30/18 at 12:21 pm to CorkRockingham
quote:
When you say 100% in cash do you mean that you either 100% invested in equities or 100% in a money market account on the sidelines waiting for points of entry?
100% in a money market account on the sidelines waiting for points of entry
quote:
Secondly, does your strategies differ between your taxable account and your Roth IRA. Why such a big difference in return between the two?
my strategy probably differs a little b/c I can't help but consider tax situations more in the taxable... So I'm currently taking more risk in the taxable by holding out some lots for 1 year LTCG more than I should in a couple of stocks... I just happen to nail the 2 main stock holdings (NTNX and PAYC)
Posted on 5/30/18 at 12:24 pm to Jag_Warrior
quote:
You’re following the basic IBD swing trading rules?
maybe so, but I developed them on my own
This post was edited on 5/30/18 at 12:25 pm
Posted on 5/30/18 at 12:31 pm to CorkRockingham
Yes. 28% return in 2017 vs 20% S&P500 return. Currently up 15% vs 0% S&P500. I did underperform in 2016. I blame 0bama
My strategy is buy and hold a basket of stocks. BA, GOOG, FDX, KO, BAC, GE, WLL and drip them. Then trade around them. Usually NVDA, NFLX, AMZN or other large cap tech. Buying the dips, selling the rips. Just have to get into a routine. Like jump rope
My strategy is buy and hold a basket of stocks. BA, GOOG, FDX, KO, BAC, GE, WLL and drip them. Then trade around them. Usually NVDA, NFLX, AMZN or other large cap tech. Buying the dips, selling the rips. Just have to get into a routine. Like jump rope
This post was edited on 5/30/18 at 12:45 pm
Posted on 5/30/18 at 1:18 pm to Zilla
i am a swing trader. i started a new portfolio last October. so for 2017 - 13.7% october - December
2018- 1.8% at the end of April
2018- 1.8% at the end of April
Posted on 5/30/18 at 1:26 pm to CorkRockingham
All I look at is RSI and 52 week highs and lows and try to be patient. I look for overbought opportunities and oversold opportunities. I did really well last year betting on comebacks in the energy sector. Specifically CLMT and CVRR.
Posted on 5/30/18 at 2:51 pm to CorkRockingham
(no message)
This post was edited on 5/31/18 at 11:13 am
Posted on 5/30/18 at 2:57 pm to CorkRockingham
I did last year in 2 of my 3 accounts that I manage. I'm not sure about historically. I'd have to go back on try to figure that out.
Posted on 5/30/18 at 3:34 pm to CorkRockingham
quote:
If so what is your strategy?
Ride the waves that other market participants make while watching for signs the move is about to or has worn out (parabolic moves, for example). Also, look for situations where many other market participants are, or will be, caught in unpleasant positions.
I analyze the volatility of the underlying to manage the risk and reward of my positions.
Posted on 5/30/18 at 4:50 pm to CorkRockingham
Someone beating the market for 1, 3, or even 5 years is meaningless. Could be skill, but just as probable it's dumb luck.
Over 90% of money managers get beat by the market over the long term (5-15 years).
It's INCREDIBLY difficult to beat the market over the long term. Unknowns are unknown. The strategy that works in a bull doesn't in a bear and vise versa.
more than 9 out of 10 people telling you they have beat the market won't be able to say that in a few years.
don't waste your time, invest in a total market index and spend your time actually making money in a business, real estate, or a job
ETA: I don't take my own advice. I somewhat actively manage my portfolio and have beaten the market over the last 15 years by about 1.5%, but know that time would have been better spent elsewhere....
Over 90% of money managers get beat by the market over the long term (5-15 years).
It's INCREDIBLY difficult to beat the market over the long term. Unknowns are unknown. The strategy that works in a bull doesn't in a bear and vise versa.
more than 9 out of 10 people telling you they have beat the market won't be able to say that in a few years.
don't waste your time, invest in a total market index and spend your time actually making money in a business, real estate, or a job
ETA: I don't take my own advice. I somewhat actively manage my portfolio and have beaten the market over the last 15 years by about 1.5%, but know that time would have been better spent elsewhere....
This post was edited on 6/1/18 at 8:49 am
Posted on 5/30/18 at 8:42 pm to Ole War Skule
quote:
don't waste your time, invest in a total market index and spend your time actually making money in a business, real estate, or a job
Agreed on all your points.
Had an accounting professor tell me this when I asked for his investing advice. Smartest teacher I ever had. Took me years to realize how right he was.
Posted on 5/30/18 at 9:25 pm to CorkRockingham
I have as long as I've been investing with exception to the time spent gambling on pink sheets.
just a few year time span though.
I don't believe in diversification though. why buy parts of an ok company when you can buy more of a great company?
just a few year time span though.
I don't believe in diversification though. why buy parts of an ok company when you can buy more of a great company?
Posted on 5/30/18 at 9:35 pm to oklahogjr
quote:
why buy parts of an ok company when you can buy more of a great company?
Enron says hi
Posted on 5/30/18 at 9:39 pm to Man4others
quote:
Yes. 28% return in 2017 vs 20% S&P500 return. Currently up 15% vs 0% S&P500. I did underperform in 2016. I blame 0bama
This is not nearly a large enough sample size. Might as well say heads is more likely than tails because a coin flipped heads 2 out of 3 times
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