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Started By
Message
re: Diving deeper on Standard Lithium?
Posted on 6/3/22 at 10:54 pm to el Gaucho
Posted on 6/3/22 at 10:54 pm to el Gaucho
quote:
Surprised it’s red today, I heard they were having drag queen lithium hour to celebrate pride month
Shoot out near plant yesterday. Had to go on lock down for a bit. Apparently some fella's from a center for the mentally challenged got some guns and started shooting at each other and ran into the woods.
I think they've all been rounded up so things should be safe now. 
1
Posted on 6/4/22 at 7:41 am to SmackoverHawg
Any new coming from the plant down there? Seems like this stock has held up fairly well considering the market conditions.
Posted on 6/4/22 at 8:33 am to Pierre
quote:
Any new coming from the plant down there?
Pre-feed study results on the Lanxess project due very soon, Q2 2022 (SLI PR). According to Fe Mike’s transcript of the Citi conference, they plan to meet that deadline.
This is a big one for me, as it is one of the first steps to actually constructing a plant. That is if the results are favorable for us.
Posted on 6/4/22 at 11:14 am to Pierre
Got nothing new other than the addition of 3 experienced operators recently that I posted about a few pages back. Things are more tight lipped than ever. Everyone is super optimistic, but obviously can't say anything specific and may not actually know enough to say.
At this point, I take any info with a grain of salt. Very, very few people are really in the know and I think blind optimism or people telling you what they think you want to hear skews the accuracy.
Sometimes too much info can be a bad thing. Like last year when they beautified everything leading up to Lanxess' 3rd Q ER. Everything lead me and many others pretty high up in the food chain there to assume it was to announce JV. Turns out they were trying to keep their investors on board and show justification for the expenditures they've been making. That's one reason I've been more cautious in what I post. What looked like info that pointed to nothing but good was actually the opposite!
I just know things are still running and I take it as a good sign that operators are being hired. To my Knowledge there are probably about 20 SLI employees. Not sure how many Lanxess folks are still involved. It won't take a ton of people to run the initial project facility. I think 20-25 was what they initially said a year or two ago.
At this point, I take any info with a grain of salt. Very, very few people are really in the know and I think blind optimism or people telling you what they think you want to hear skews the accuracy.
Sometimes too much info can be a bad thing. Like last year when they beautified everything leading up to Lanxess' 3rd Q ER. Everything lead me and many others pretty high up in the food chain there to assume it was to announce JV. Turns out they were trying to keep their investors on board and show justification for the expenditures they've been making. That's one reason I've been more cautious in what I post. What looked like info that pointed to nothing but good was actually the opposite!
I just know things are still running and I take it as a good sign that operators are being hired. To my Knowledge there are probably about 20 SLI employees. Not sure how many Lanxess folks are still involved. It won't take a ton of people to run the initial project facility. I think 20-25 was what they initially said a year or two ago.
Posted on 6/4/22 at 10:48 pm to CecilShortsHisPants
quote:
This is a big one for me, as it is one of the first steps to actually constructing a plant. That is if the results are favorable for us.
Unfortunately, we aren’t gonna see these results. We’ll only get the FEED.
Spoke to Mr Mintak at length. Will put together my summary of that when I get a bit of time, hopefully tomorrow.
But just a little something to wet your collective whistles in the mean time:
The execs are going to be heading to DC in a couple weeks.
$3,000,000,000 potential reasons to head to DC
Posted on 6/6/22 at 3:35 pm to Fe_Mike
And we had a green day today. Whatever the CAPEX is, a huge chunk of that gov't cash would sure be nice. Just stating the obvious, but without Koch industries I think SLI had zero chance.
Posted on 6/6/22 at 3:44 pm to SmackoverHawg
Sli sister stock Whsi was lit today too
Posted on 6/8/22 at 10:03 am to el Gaucho
Posted on 6/8/22 at 10:18 am to Auburn1968
Posted on 6/9/22 at 9:59 am to Wraytex
Posted on 6/9/22 at 10:23 am to Auburn1968
So should we add more here or is it going to drop more?
Posted on 6/9/22 at 10:41 am to kengel2
Yes and oh absolutely.
Posted on 6/9/22 at 10:53 am to kengel2
Posted on 6/9/22 at 11:27 am to kengel2
It’s never gonna go above 6 ever again
Posted on 6/9/22 at 11:40 am to el Gaucho
quote:
It’s never gonna go above 6 ever again
If I sell today, it will go to 12 tomorrow.
Posted on 6/9/22 at 12:03 pm to wickowick
quote:
If I sell today, it will go to 12 tomorrow.
Sell
Posted on 6/10/22 at 7:29 am to ThermoDynamicTiger
Waiting on those cliff notes Fe_Mike. C'mon man! as our diaper and chief would say.
Posted on 6/10/22 at 11:19 am to wickowick
quote:
If I sell today, it will go to 12 tomorrow.
If you sell, el Gaucho will send you his hat!
This post was edited on 6/10/22 at 11:20 am
Posted on 6/10/22 at 11:22 am to AUHighPlainsDrifter
Somehow this turd is a green one today.
ETA: Nevermind.
ETA: Nevermind.
This post was edited on 6/10/22 at 11:31 am
Posted on 6/10/22 at 1:27 pm to ThermoDynamicTiger
Haha, sorry. So damn busy in June.
Okay, lemme see if I can rehash this discussion for everyone. I had a phone call with Mintak on Friday (last week) to go over the questions that I posted earlier.
So, to start things out, there was an extremely high air of confidence in the discussions, which mostly circulated around the Phase 1 buildout at the Lanxess site. Everything said was spoken with an inflection of 'when' not 'if'. I have had discussions with many executives and investor relations personnel (I am very hands on) and there is almost always a 'safe harbor' level of uncertainty or hesitancy in the conversation. RM was very pointed and direct with what they were working on, how they were going to accomplish it, and any potential obstacles. Quite refreshing.
To get into the specifics, the first question regarded the three phases of the Lanxess builds and if they are standalone units. And the answer is, sort of. First, the three phases will all be incorporated as three separate project companies under the umbrella of IP that SLI controls. This is a safety net of sorts for Lanxess, which allows them to choose to build and operate an extraction unit if for some reason SLI chooses not to pursue that opportunity. I can only speculate why that might happen - perhaps SLI gets a green light on the SW Arkansas project and doesn't have enough capital to execute both sites in parallel and, seeing as the SW project has much more potential, chooses to pursue that opportunity instead of the Lanxess Phase 2/3. In this case, Lanxess can fund, build out and own the plant, licensing SLI intellectual property to do so. Again, that scenario is total speculation and RM did not comment at all on a situation in which it might be necessary to execute that option.
The three phases will all utilize their own 'custom' upstream isolation units, which essentially represents the LiSTR process. The output of those three facilities will share a downstream conversion unit (the SiFT process) which is included in the Phase I buildout and is oversized to accommodate all three Phases' combined volume. This accounts for much of the seemingly disproportionate expense of the Phase I build, which also answers my third question regarding why Phase 1 has a higher CAPEX and is being pursued first despite being the smallest resource. I want to comment here that this info is actually in the PEA and I need to do a deep dive into that, as I missed it when I looked that over. Don't blame me, that thing is a 230 page beast of a document.
Question two regarded the scale of the three units. They are all custom to the resource available and so the scale of the "upstream" LiSTR unit will be marginable to the brine resource that is being tapped into. They are not modular in design, with the ability to drag and drop into different resource areas. Much of the engineering is transposable, but things like reactor geometry have to be custom to the resource of the area. Again, the 'downstream' SiFT unit is being oversized initially to accommodate feed from all three tails.
Fourth question was regarding the pre-FEED and FEED, timeline, results, etc. Got some very good info here. Unfortunately, the pre-FEED is not regulated and thus does not need to be, nor will it be, published by the company. I gleaned that the pre-FEED is complete (RM did not confirm this). Negotiations for the award of the FEED study contract are currently being finalized. I believe either the contract award and/or the commencement of the FEED will be announced (not confirmed). All indications are that these are still 'on time' (pre-FEED done imminently, FEED beginning imminently and completion by EOY '22). An interesting nugget regarding the FEED: once that report is filed the numbers are guaranteed and actionable for a defined window of time (I want to say 60 days? maybe 90? my note taking failed me here; bad timing had me doubling Daddy duties and keeping a baby calm while on the call). Therefore, as soon as the FEED is filed we have a clock ticking on getting the final investment decision. I love hard deadlines. Look for serious value prior to and share price appreciation in whatever time frame this window ends up being.
And now some other things that we discussed.
They are currently working on finalizing the product specs for the Lanxess offtake agreement. Having a guarantor to take the product is nice just in security of sale, but it also helps to reduce costs related to working capital, S&D planning, quality control, logistics, etc by not having to juggle various specs and grades of products between customers.
The OPEX on the SW Arkansas economics is inclusive of the cost to convert the lithium resource to LiOH. Very bullish on the economics around this project. They anticipate starting up the piloting process to demonstrate the LiOH conversion process this year. In order to do this, they have to tap into the brine resource for the specific site and send it to the pilot plant for extraction (this is also necessary for data collection for the eventual SW pre-FEED). They have secured the ability to re-enter Mission Creek wells to access the brine, and already have access to the drilling equipment needed to complete this (or the major pieces). This is a huge advantage for both the timeline and expense associated with completing this process.
With regards to the major reagents used in the process, he stated that they have a US manufacturer for the supply of these raws and the implication was that the process has been proven and they are set with this supply. The most recent PR regarding this said that they are currently exploring US manufacturing options in what seemed to be some sort of toll manufacturing agreement, so I believe this is a nice update that they have secured domestic supply for these major reagents. I wonder if this vendor is FutureFuel? They are local to Ark, and have advanced manufacturing capabilities and capacity, specializing in custom manufacturing and tolling – just my speculation and doesn’t really matter.
Finally, they are hosting a group from EU on site next week – again, note taking failed me here. I believe RM stated these were investors; I’m pretty confident that was the case. If he didn’t, maybe it is Lanxess? It would align with perhaps an execution of a FEED contract. Either way, the Europeans and SLI execs are going to be in El Dorado next week. The following week, Standard will be in DC hoping to secure a piece of that $3.1 billion just allocated by the DOE to boost domestic battery manufacturing and supply chain efforts. No idea where they are in that process; if they are ready to receive an award, or just starting the lobbying process. But it was mentioned that it is something that should make investors happy.
RM invited me to meet him in Arkansas and tour the plant next week. I am traveling that direction and would love to oblige if possible. We have to head north for my daughter to have medical procedures done next week and will be round-about that area during the drive home – not sure if we’ll get discharged in time for me to catch him on the return trip, though.
All in all, was a great talk and I’m extremely bullish as a result for the updates in the next 6-12 months. I think there are some small catalysts to support near term pricing coming up, and major catalysts looking at early ’23. The Lanx project is exciting to get us off the ground, but that SW Ark project is just eye popping. Patience is key, but the potential if that springs roots in ’24 is massive. Everything is progressing in the right direction and being handled nicely, even if a bit slower than we had hoped.
Okay, lemme see if I can rehash this discussion for everyone. I had a phone call with Mintak on Friday (last week) to go over the questions that I posted earlier.
So, to start things out, there was an extremely high air of confidence in the discussions, which mostly circulated around the Phase 1 buildout at the Lanxess site. Everything said was spoken with an inflection of 'when' not 'if'. I have had discussions with many executives and investor relations personnel (I am very hands on) and there is almost always a 'safe harbor' level of uncertainty or hesitancy in the conversation. RM was very pointed and direct with what they were working on, how they were going to accomplish it, and any potential obstacles. Quite refreshing.
To get into the specifics, the first question regarded the three phases of the Lanxess builds and if they are standalone units. And the answer is, sort of. First, the three phases will all be incorporated as three separate project companies under the umbrella of IP that SLI controls. This is a safety net of sorts for Lanxess, which allows them to choose to build and operate an extraction unit if for some reason SLI chooses not to pursue that opportunity. I can only speculate why that might happen - perhaps SLI gets a green light on the SW Arkansas project and doesn't have enough capital to execute both sites in parallel and, seeing as the SW project has much more potential, chooses to pursue that opportunity instead of the Lanxess Phase 2/3. In this case, Lanxess can fund, build out and own the plant, licensing SLI intellectual property to do so. Again, that scenario is total speculation and RM did not comment at all on a situation in which it might be necessary to execute that option.
The three phases will all utilize their own 'custom' upstream isolation units, which essentially represents the LiSTR process. The output of those three facilities will share a downstream conversion unit (the SiFT process) which is included in the Phase I buildout and is oversized to accommodate all three Phases' combined volume. This accounts for much of the seemingly disproportionate expense of the Phase I build, which also answers my third question regarding why Phase 1 has a higher CAPEX and is being pursued first despite being the smallest resource. I want to comment here that this info is actually in the PEA and I need to do a deep dive into that, as I missed it when I looked that over. Don't blame me, that thing is a 230 page beast of a document.
Question two regarded the scale of the three units. They are all custom to the resource available and so the scale of the "upstream" LiSTR unit will be marginable to the brine resource that is being tapped into. They are not modular in design, with the ability to drag and drop into different resource areas. Much of the engineering is transposable, but things like reactor geometry have to be custom to the resource of the area. Again, the 'downstream' SiFT unit is being oversized initially to accommodate feed from all three tails.
Fourth question was regarding the pre-FEED and FEED, timeline, results, etc. Got some very good info here. Unfortunately, the pre-FEED is not regulated and thus does not need to be, nor will it be, published by the company. I gleaned that the pre-FEED is complete (RM did not confirm this). Negotiations for the award of the FEED study contract are currently being finalized. I believe either the contract award and/or the commencement of the FEED will be announced (not confirmed). All indications are that these are still 'on time' (pre-FEED done imminently, FEED beginning imminently and completion by EOY '22). An interesting nugget regarding the FEED: once that report is filed the numbers are guaranteed and actionable for a defined window of time (I want to say 60 days? maybe 90? my note taking failed me here; bad timing had me doubling Daddy duties and keeping a baby calm while on the call). Therefore, as soon as the FEED is filed we have a clock ticking on getting the final investment decision. I love hard deadlines. Look for serious value prior to and share price appreciation in whatever time frame this window ends up being.
And now some other things that we discussed.
They are currently working on finalizing the product specs for the Lanxess offtake agreement. Having a guarantor to take the product is nice just in security of sale, but it also helps to reduce costs related to working capital, S&D planning, quality control, logistics, etc by not having to juggle various specs and grades of products between customers.
The OPEX on the SW Arkansas economics is inclusive of the cost to convert the lithium resource to LiOH. Very bullish on the economics around this project. They anticipate starting up the piloting process to demonstrate the LiOH conversion process this year. In order to do this, they have to tap into the brine resource for the specific site and send it to the pilot plant for extraction (this is also necessary for data collection for the eventual SW pre-FEED). They have secured the ability to re-enter Mission Creek wells to access the brine, and already have access to the drilling equipment needed to complete this (or the major pieces). This is a huge advantage for both the timeline and expense associated with completing this process.
With regards to the major reagents used in the process, he stated that they have a US manufacturer for the supply of these raws and the implication was that the process has been proven and they are set with this supply. The most recent PR regarding this said that they are currently exploring US manufacturing options in what seemed to be some sort of toll manufacturing agreement, so I believe this is a nice update that they have secured domestic supply for these major reagents. I wonder if this vendor is FutureFuel? They are local to Ark, and have advanced manufacturing capabilities and capacity, specializing in custom manufacturing and tolling – just my speculation and doesn’t really matter.
Finally, they are hosting a group from EU on site next week – again, note taking failed me here. I believe RM stated these were investors; I’m pretty confident that was the case. If he didn’t, maybe it is Lanxess? It would align with perhaps an execution of a FEED contract. Either way, the Europeans and SLI execs are going to be in El Dorado next week. The following week, Standard will be in DC hoping to secure a piece of that $3.1 billion just allocated by the DOE to boost domestic battery manufacturing and supply chain efforts. No idea where they are in that process; if they are ready to receive an award, or just starting the lobbying process. But it was mentioned that it is something that should make investors happy.
RM invited me to meet him in Arkansas and tour the plant next week. I am traveling that direction and would love to oblige if possible. We have to head north for my daughter to have medical procedures done next week and will be round-about that area during the drive home – not sure if we’ll get discharged in time for me to catch him on the return trip, though.
All in all, was a great talk and I’m extremely bullish as a result for the updates in the next 6-12 months. I think there are some small catalysts to support near term pricing coming up, and major catalysts looking at early ’23. The Lanx project is exciting to get us off the ground, but that SW Ark project is just eye popping. Patience is key, but the potential if that springs roots in ’24 is massive. Everything is progressing in the right direction and being handled nicely, even if a bit slower than we had hoped.
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