re: Diving Deeper on Origin Materials?

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General, Would you start a position today with what you have invested in it currently?

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Nice run, they must have taken me up on the commercial.

GeneralLee? I’m stuck holding bags at around $4/share.

Occam’s razor would suggest this is going to zero. I’ll ride it to zero at this point just to remind myself to never invest in individual stocks again. I think this goes sub .50, maybe even down to .25 by year end with massive tax loss harvesting going on and management MIA with regards to defending the stock price. Not expecting any potential catalysts until February with potential unit economics known by then. Management obviously knew long before August that the jig was up with regards to the O2 plant getting done anywhere near the original timeline. Basically this is a Hail Mary relying on government grants, licensing deals, and/or new income streams from quicker to market products like bottle caps to survive. It’s a shame as I think the tech could still be legit, but management is obviously incompetent.

That wasn't really insider buying in December, just vesting of options.

I do not think the company has the management team with the competence needed to survive. I've never seen a company so willingly let its stock price decline for months on end with no support. It's almost as if management wants this stock to go to zero. 90+ days with no press release since the last one where they laid off 30% of their workforce. Earnings report in February should tell a lot, if it's more silence or delays then that's it, in my opinion. Origin's technology, if it can work at scale and be somewhat cost competitive at least, needs to be sold to a company with a competent management team and a balance sheet strong enough that can deploy the tech.

If the technology can't work, then the company should be liquidated and remaining cash (which is like 2x the current market cap) returned to shareholders, but Origin's management is too stubborn to give up on their science fair experiment and will never let that happen.

Origin Materials Converts Wood Residue Feedstock into Sustainable Intermediates at Commercial-Scale Plant

LINK

ORGN about to cross $1. Up 80% last month.

I averaged down at $0.56 a few weeks ago when the video series with management started to come out. My average is now under $2. Undecided yet if I will bail on all of it or hold on if the share price gets back up there. The market, and myself, had written this off as a scam with the silence that happened over the past 9 months. The market for their products is clearly there, the question (still unresolved) is can they produce products at scale economically. Perhaps caps and closures is the bridge product, or even more than a bridge product, to get them to positive cash flows or even to a market cap several times higher than current price levels. Still a very speculative investment though and not for the faint of heart.

Earnings coming after the bell today.
Having been disappointed for 3 straight earnings, expectations are low for this one. Will be content if they reiterate first commercial caps production for Q4 and at least maintain 24 revenue guidance.
Biomass licensing/caps customer info would be nice, but probably not a winning formula to expect positive surprises from these folks.

Anyone else still holding this? General?

Yikes. Hopefully they aren't involved in caps operations at least