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Started By
Message
Crystal ball $ gurus, where are rates going?
Posted on 4/8/24 at 8:23 pm
Posted on 4/8/24 at 8:23 pm
Looking at making investment and the rates right now are a kick in the nuts.
What is the boards crystal ball forecast for where rates are going? I think there is a decent case to be made that inflation is not under control and we could see another round of increases over the next 1-2 yrs.
However I can also see the case for a bear market/recession and rates easing. That being said I can't see them getting down lower than 5s.
What is your prediction?
What is the boards crystal ball forecast for where rates are going? I think there is a decent case to be made that inflation is not under control and we could see another round of increases over the next 1-2 yrs.
However I can also see the case for a bear market/recession and rates easing. That being said I can't see them getting down lower than 5s.
What is your prediction?
This post was edited on 4/8/24 at 8:30 pm
14
Posted on 4/8/24 at 8:24 pm to GREENHEAD22
quote:
Looking at making investment and the rates right now are a kick in the nuts.
Which rates?
quote:
What is the boards crystal ball forecast for where rates are going?
Which rates? How long?
Posted on 4/8/24 at 8:27 pm to slackster
Looking at holding for 10yrs but the looking at 20/30yr financing terms. This is a land/Ag investment.
Posted on 4/8/24 at 8:39 pm to GREENHEAD22
20/30yr land financing? I’ve seen some land loan recs on this board but who’s doing that?
Posted on 4/8/24 at 8:49 pm to LSUcam7
Farm credit and land banks, only way to do it.
Posted on 4/8/24 at 9:06 pm to GREENHEAD22
I’d imagine rates are 8-10% for a deal like that?
Not sure how much higher the 10 and 20 year treasury can go but I wouldn’t be shocked to see them both at 5% sooner than later.
Not sure how much higher the 10 and 20 year treasury can go but I wouldn’t be shocked to see them both at 5% sooner than later.
Posted on 4/8/24 at 9:27 pm to GREENHEAD22
I don’t think they’re going down much (if at all) unless something major breaks. If that happens then you’ll have a whole host of new problems worrying you other than the interest.
Posted on 4/8/24 at 9:41 pm to GREENHEAD22
IMO it’s a tough call at this point. They haven’t killed inflation yet but on the other hand there’s way to much pressure in the system. Gun to the head I think the bear case wins out and they go lower.
Posted on 4/9/24 at 10:36 am to GREENHEAD22
quote:
GREENHEAD22
Just closed on something similar with First South Farm Credit. 8.3% for 15 years with 20% down.
Posted on 4/9/24 at 11:19 am to GREENHEAD22
higher for longer
Posted on 4/9/24 at 12:17 pm to GREENHEAD22
i read somewhere recently don't expect a major move up or down this year.
Posted on 4/9/24 at 1:05 pm to GREENHEAD22
quote:
The Chief of JP Morgan Chase, Jamie Dimon said, "Small changes in interest rates today may have less impact on inflation in the future than many people believe." JP Morgan Chase is prepared for US interest rates to go even up to eight percent, wrote the bank's chief Jamie Dimon in his annual letter to the shareholders.
Posted on 4/9/24 at 1:43 pm to GREENHEAD22
I’m buying more hunting land soon if I can find the right place. Rates are a killer and are keeping me from buying something that is currently available and checks all my boxes (and that’s really hard to do). Pretty frustrating.
Posted on 4/9/24 at 1:54 pm to GREENHEAD22
They will continue to monetize the debt.
I guess land will be a good investment.
The dems love inflation. It makes for a larger underclass. Easier to control.
“Things cost so much that only the government can fix this. We will only tax the rich to pay for this anti-inflation program.”
I guess land will be a good investment.
The dems love inflation. It makes for a larger underclass. Easier to control.
“Things cost so much that only the government can fix this. We will only tax the rich to pay for this anti-inflation program.”
Posted on 4/9/24 at 2:20 pm to GREENHEAD22
I would be fairly surprised to wake up 12 months from now and see the Fed rate more than plus or minus .25% of where it is today. I would be shocked to see it more than plus or minus .5% of where it is today.
Posted on 4/9/24 at 8:18 pm to GREENHEAD22
We will be lucky to see a rate cut this year.
The issue is that the consumers and the federal government are still creating money through ever-increasing debt. The previous hikes brought us down to just above 3% but the ongoing liquidity creation is not only keeping it from dropping below 3%, but it's started moving back up.
Refineries are just now getting into summer blends, those cost more to produce. OPEC is likely to keep production low at their next meeting so while the US is producing more than ever, oil has been trending upward. We're still below pre-COVID refining capacity so higher demand for gasoline as we get into summer months... all of this is why there's speculation of $4-$5/gallon national average for the summer (especially with no SPR to ease the burden).
If that happens, inflation jumps up.
All that said, it's looking more and more likely we'll get another hike before we get a cut. If inflation is up again for the next two readings, it wouldn't shock me to see another hike before September.
The issue is that the consumers and the federal government are still creating money through ever-increasing debt. The previous hikes brought us down to just above 3% but the ongoing liquidity creation is not only keeping it from dropping below 3%, but it's started moving back up.
Refineries are just now getting into summer blends, those cost more to produce. OPEC is likely to keep production low at their next meeting so while the US is producing more than ever, oil has been trending upward. We're still below pre-COVID refining capacity so higher demand for gasoline as we get into summer months... all of this is why there's speculation of $4-$5/gallon national average for the summer (especially with no SPR to ease the burden).
If that happens, inflation jumps up.
All that said, it's looking more and more likely we'll get another hike before we get a cut. If inflation is up again for the next two readings, it wouldn't shock me to see another hike before September.
Posted on 4/10/24 at 6:42 am to GREENHEAD22
I think prime rate will remain above 5-6% for a while. 3-4 years IMO. Sub prime meltdown, extremely low rates for so long and then Covid/govt spending.
Posted on 4/10/24 at 8:34 am to GREENHEAD22
They aren’t going lower. Not by any substantial figure.
Posted on 4/10/24 at 8:41 am to Hayekian serf
election year---sideways
They should of headed up at the end of 2020 and they stayed put
They should of headed up at the end of 2020 and they stayed put
Posted on 4/10/24 at 8:45 am to GREENHEAD22
Real Estate is cracking as we speak. Proceed at your own risk.
First it was office space, now it is Senior Housing. Who knows what is next.
First it was office space, now it is Senior Housing. Who knows what is next.
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