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Started By
Message
re: AUPH - Aurinia Pharmaceuticals [CEO FIRED!]
Posted on 8/6/21 at 9:38 pm to bayoubengals88
Posted on 8/6/21 at 9:38 pm to bayoubengals88
Q1 was a shite show with a very limited timeframe to sell the drug, therefore just 900k in revenue. Atrocious.
But they clearly worked hard in Q2 to make 6.6 million. Guidance is 40-50 million by years end.
But they clearly worked hard in Q2 to make 6.6 million. Guidance is 40-50 million by years end.
1
Posted on 8/8/21 at 3:38 pm to bayoubengals88
Cantor update:
Posted on 8/8/21 at 4:10 pm to bayoubengals88
So they're at what 215 for Q3 already if they have 800 YTD? That bodes well for next quarter. I may go big in options this week. Something far out at a high price point for cheap to load up. Gotta see what it does on opening I'd like to pick some up on a dip if i can.
Posted on 8/8/21 at 5:03 pm to oklahogjr
quote:I’m afraid not.
So they're at what 215 for Q3 already if they have 800 YTD?
Q1 - 257
Q2 - 415
= 672
so at least 128 from July 1st through August 5th
I’d imagine July is the slowest month just due to it being middle of summer so that’s not terrible.
Thoughts?
Posted on 8/8/21 at 5:07 pm to bayoubengals88
RBC with a much more moderate stance:
Posted on 8/8/21 at 5:32 pm to bayoubengals88
quote:well dang. that's not super impressive i guess.
I’m afraid not.
Q1 - 257
Q2 - 415
= 672
It means with the 65k a year price point they're on track to hit the 40-50 million mark. they need to pick it up though cause that would also mean they're tracking more towards Q1 than Q2 numbers for Q3 at this point which is gonna continue dragging them to the lower side of the estimate.
I could see july being slow as wel though, i just hate to to make excuses for them. so much potential here.
We need about 1600 processed this year at a 50% conversion rate if i'm doing that math right.
Posted on 8/8/21 at 5:41 pm to oklahogjr
Well, Peter did say 40-50 million for this year…
I think we can get 1600. Is the conversion rate around 50 percent? Was that disclosed?
That would be 52 million this year. Very good.
Here’s hoping the number was well about 800.
Let’s say anywhere from 128 to 200 or so. Peter is likely tight lipped.
I think we can get 1600. Is the conversion rate around 50 percent? Was that disclosed?
That would be 52 million this year. Very good.
Here’s hoping the number was well about 800.
Let’s say anywhere from 128 to 200 or so. Peter is likely tight lipped.
This post was edited on 8/8/21 at 5:46 pm
Posted on 8/8/21 at 5:49 pm to bayoubengals88
quote:
think we can get 1600. Is the conversion rate around 50 percent? Was that disclosed?
That was my understanding of the 50% number in second paragraph of key points. Q1 was lower at 40%. So it's up ticking which is good as well
Posted on 8/8/21 at 5:52 pm to oklahogjr
quote:Gotcha. I see now. It states over 50 percent. Fantastic.
That was my understanding of the 50% number in second paragraph of key points. Q1 was lower at 40%. So it's up ticking which is good as well
A2 data is going to make do wonders for the company. Can’t come out soon enough.
Posted on 8/8/21 at 6:01 pm to bayoubengals88
Sales sales sales. They gotta keep pounding that pavement and we gotta hope this delta wave doesn't slow everything down more.
This is a race against the clock at this point to gain traction and sustainable cash flow before the investment dollars run out and they're forced to dilute us.
My concern is a slow July is due to the lack of non covid procedures going on at the hospitals. Liver biopsies apparently are down this year which is bad for business
This is a race against the clock at this point to gain traction and sustainable cash flow before the investment dollars run out and they're forced to dilute us.
My concern is a slow July is due to the lack of non covid procedures going on at the hospitals. Liver biopsies apparently are down this year which is bad for business
Posted on 8/8/21 at 6:10 pm to oklahogjr
quote:Kidney?
Liver biopsies apparently are down this year which is bad for business
Yeah, for all the reasons you mention, PG needs to sell from a position of strength.
Could be now, could be post Q3 after 15-20 million in revenue, could be post Q4.
I wouldn’t want him to wait any longer with all the variables.
BO price gets more expensive with each ER (obviously).
Posted on 8/8/21 at 6:16 pm to bayoubengals88
quote:
Kidney?
I thought that sounded wrong. Anatomy and math apparently aren't my strong suits today.
quote:
Yeah, for all the reasons you mention, PG needs to sell from a position of strength.
Could be now, could be post Q3 after 15-20 million in revenue, could be post Q4.
I wouldn’t want him to wait any longer with all the variables.
BO price gets more expensive with each ER (obviously).
to me this would be the time if we've got a good offer we're showing traction, looking good but have a lot of work ahead of us still yet.
Posted on 8/8/21 at 6:22 pm to bayoubengals88
When it dropped below 12 I sold some puts to try and buy at 10 and 11. Looks like the premium is mine. Also sold CC's on nearly half my shares. Sold at 15, 16 and 17 all expiring 8/20. Hoping it stays below 15 until then but my cost is less than 5 on these shares so can not complain about profit.
This post was edited on 8/8/21 at 6:24 pm
Posted on 8/8/21 at 9:52 pm to oklahogjr
quote:
well dang. that's not super impressive i guess.
Remember they can still covert some of those start forms that aren’t yet converted. Prior authorizations take time so you are always gonna be a tad behind on real numbers Bc from patient start up form to drug in hand for patient is likely still 2/3 weeks best case scenario.
Posted on 8/9/21 at 9:01 am to redfishfan
Have a feeling that Delta bullshite will slow this train down in Q3
Posted on 8/9/21 at 10:24 am to jmcwhrter
Can't stop this thing. Covid may slow it down. It's impossibly more expensive to require IVs in hospitals than a pill.
Posted on 8/9/21 at 10:32 am to oklahogjr
Dude…
I wanna see $16 again
I wanna see $16 again
Posted on 8/9/21 at 11:20 am to bayoubengals88
I just want a BO so I can get off this ride.
Posted on 8/9/21 at 11:35 am to oklahogjr
Wainwright reported "well above" 800 forms.
Posted on 8/9/21 at 6:41 pm to bayoubengals88
That's a positive sign. I wonder if that's puffery or better information form the wain wright side.
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