are they going under:

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God I hope so

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Lol

What he said

Carnival is the cheapest option. People will eventually want to get away on vacation but can’t pay the premium for Norwegian or RCL

per BAC analyst:

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Carnival: 9 Months
Carnival recently suggested it requires $1 billion in liquidity per month to cover operating expenditures, customer refunds, debt obligations and other necessities. At this rate, with debt and equity offerings completed in April, Didora's suspect that Carnival can sustain itself through the end of 2020.

“We believe CCL could be able to reduce its monthly cash burn predominantly given potential delays in ship investments and potential debt maturities holidays, which could extend its liquidity into 2021,” they wrote in a note.

Norwegian: 18 Months
Norwegian Cruise Line is paying between $70 million and $110 million each month for debt obligations, opex and capex. The analysts also anticipate about $67 million per month in refund payouts for the rest of the year.

The company recently raised $2.4 billion in capital, which bolstered its liquidity position to about $3.8 billion, according to Bank of America estimates. This “is enough to get through at least 4Q21 in a worst case of no future cash sales,” they wrote.

Royal Caribbean: 11 Months
According to Didora's estimates, Royal Caribbean has about $3.45 billion in liquidity but is burning about $330 million in cash per month. At that rate, the company can last through the first quarter of 2021 with suspended operations.

“For RCL to extend its liquidity into late 2021 to further de-risk its liquidity profile, we estimate it would need to raise an incremental $1.5-2.0B in capital,” the analysts wrote.

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Hertz - YES
Carnival - NO
Norwegian - NO
Spirit - NO
American airlines - YES

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Obviously I am assuming Chapter 11, these companies will still be operating in the future.

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Carnival is the cheapest option. People will eventually want to get away on vacation but can’t pay the premium for Norwegian or RCL

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dumbest way to invest in the world

no one knows the future of cruise lines. its a completely unstable industry with zero sings of a consistent future moving forward

Last week Carnival announced that some of its cruises could resume in August. Since that announcement, the Cruise Planners representative says, Carnival bookings shot up 600% compared to the previous three days before news of August Carnival trips were announced. However, what’s really surprising is that Cruise Planners says that August 2020 bookings are up 200% over August 2019 bookings—back when no one had any worries about being stuck on “death ships.”

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Crazy that the world could be without a cruise industry for a period of time. Eventually it would come back but that’s shocking speed to demolish a multi billion dollar industry.

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I don’t see how this is realistic. Maybe one of the three will fold but there are too many creditors with major stakes in those billion dollar ships. They can’t afford to trash their loans. They’ll have to be patient.

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Hertz is done.

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You think Icahn is going to let his company go under without providing financing? I know he’s between a rock and a hard spot, but it seems like he’s got to pay more or lose everything he has in the company, which is what, 38%?