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Message
re: anybody worried about stock market going down tomorrow
Posted on 2/21/20 at 4:41 pm to rallyTiger
Posted on 2/21/20 at 4:41 pm to rallyTiger
Man, what a rough day. I hope I can find food tonight.
0
Posted on 2/21/20 at 5:00 pm to rallyTiger
I don't even need to read the link. The down votes rain down on anyone who suggests things aren't right.
I'm not at all worried about the guys who make money with volatility, I'm worried about the guys who think QE infinity is the answer and buy everything is the response.
It will work until it doesn't. When it doesn't, it's going to be brutal for everyone who thinks buying and holding their index fund is the only logical way to do it. Sorry to be a Debbie Downer, but I think everyone should have stop losses on their holdings and if you're lucky enough to get a higher low (like coronavirus gave us a couple weeks back) you should move them up. Downvote away.
I'm not at all worried about the guys who make money with volatility, I'm worried about the guys who think QE infinity is the answer and buy everything is the response.
It will work until it doesn't. When it doesn't, it's going to be brutal for everyone who thinks buying and holding their index fund is the only logical way to do it. Sorry to be a Debbie Downer, but I think everyone should have stop losses on their holdings and if you're lucky enough to get a higher low (like coronavirus gave us a couple weeks back) you should move them up. Downvote away.
Posted on 2/21/20 at 7:24 pm to UpstairsComputer
I won't downvote you, but I have to point out a flaw in your logic. History, both recent and distant, has proven that there's no limit to how far a country (or monetary authority) can debase their currency. Ben Bernake said it himself (paraphrased, i.e., from memory), "a determined central bank with a printing press can always create inflation". He's correct and that includes, sometimes predominately in the early phases, inflation in the prices of financial assets, inflation in corporate revenues, even inflation in their income as long as costs (like wages) rise slower than the true rate of inflation. It's just a matter of how long the other manifestations of inflation remain hidden or contained, and there's a point of no return which has likely already been crossed, IMO. But in the interim, a soaring stock market is a sedative for a middle class that's being systematically destroyed.
So, the price level of the "stock market" denominated in any currency doesn't have to drop, ever, until the currency becomes worthless. Central banks absolutely do have the ability to choose winners and losers, at least until the vast majority of us are losers. Once they've subjugated the value of the currency to other priorities, like jobs, or stock prices, preventing govt default, etc., then savers of their currencies bear as much or more risk as investors in massively inflated stock and bond markets, real estate, etc. Unfortunately, you'll need inside information from the fed to decide at any given time whether to plunge into trillion dollar stocks with high valuations, or ride with cash.
So, the price level of the "stock market" denominated in any currency doesn't have to drop, ever, until the currency becomes worthless. Central banks absolutely do have the ability to choose winners and losers, at least until the vast majority of us are losers. Once they've subjugated the value of the currency to other priorities, like jobs, or stock prices, preventing govt default, etc., then savers of their currencies bear as much or more risk as investors in massively inflated stock and bond markets, real estate, etc. Unfortunately, you'll need inside information from the fed to decide at any given time whether to plunge into trillion dollar stocks with high valuations, or ride with cash.
This post was edited on 2/21/20 at 8:16 pm
Posted on 2/21/20 at 7:29 pm to UpstairsComputer
quote:
I don't even need to read the link. The down votes rain down on anyone who suggests things aren't right.
I'm not at all worried about the guys who make money with volatility, I'm worried about the guys who think QE infinity is the answer and buy everything is the response.
It will work until it doesn't. When it doesn't, it's going to be brutal for everyone who thinks buying and holding their index fund is the only logical way to do it. Sorry to be a Debbie Downer, but I think everyone should have stop losses on their holdings and if you're lucky enough to get a higher low (like coronavirus gave us a couple weeks back) you should move them up. Downvote away.
Has there been a time in your lifetime the stock market never recovered? Even the worst of times last what? A few years?
I dont know, I am pretty young. I bought into the fear once in 2008 and I remember my sergeant telling me then was the time to get in and not listen to everyone. The US economy was too massive to just never recover. He also said if it actually never recovered, we'd be going to war anyway so no sweat! lol.
Obviously a much simpler approach, but every time I read about fear in the market, it last a few months at the max now.
The US isn't going anywhere and neither is China. They have BILLIONS of citizens. Could probably afford to thin it out some tbh.....
This post was edited on 2/21/20 at 7:32 pm
Posted on 2/21/20 at 8:25 pm to UpstairsComputer
quote:
don't even need to read the link. The down votes rain down on anyone who suggests things aren't right.
I'm not at all worried about the guys who make money with volatility, I'm worried about the guys who think QE infinity is the answer and buy everything is the response.
It will work until it doesn't. When it doesn't, it's going to be brutal for everyone who thinks buying and holding their index fund is the only logical way to do it. Sorry to be a Debbie Downer, but I think everyone should have stop losses on their holdings and if you're lucky enough to get a higher low (like coronavirus gave us a couple weeks back) you should move them up. Downvote away.
Didn’t you say all of this in the thread Husss gained infamy in?
Posted on 2/21/20 at 9:23 pm to Thib-a-doe Tiger
Something similar, yes. Got downvoted then, so expected it again. I think buy and hold is going to hurt a lot of people so I'll stick up for those brave enough to question it. Full disclosure: I'm 100% long currently.
To address the other two guys... @wdhalgren, you're correct about a lot of what you said. Bernanke also said subprime was contained, there was no risk of spreading to other parts of the economy, and he forecasted no recession just before the bottom fell out, so I no longer believe in the infallibility of the central banks.
@jaydeertay84 (funny, btw), I'm sorry, but your questions don't have much to do with my point. Of course the market has recovered. However, for 2000-2013, your returns were 0%. Including two drops of 50-56%.
The bottom in 2009 would have been a fantastic time to get in. My argument had nothing to do with the market never recovering (not sure about the Goldman article, which now I have to go back and read). I'm suggesting we're closer to 2000 than 2009 in terms of valuation of the market and being unwilling to consider that it could fall - maybe in 6 months, maybe in 2 years, who knows? - but going into that with a firm stance on "I will never reallocate my portfolio to be less than 100% stocks" is a real bad idea. That well ingrained thought process is going to hurt people who may not be as risk tolerant as all of you are.
You likely will come out ok after 5-6 years, by why not have an exit plan an make it 12-18 months?
To address the other two guys... @wdhalgren, you're correct about a lot of what you said. Bernanke also said subprime was contained, there was no risk of spreading to other parts of the economy, and he forecasted no recession just before the bottom fell out, so I no longer believe in the infallibility of the central banks.
@jaydeertay84 (funny, btw), I'm sorry, but your questions don't have much to do with my point. Of course the market has recovered. However, for 2000-2013, your returns were 0%. Including two drops of 50-56%.
The bottom in 2009 would have been a fantastic time to get in. My argument had nothing to do with the market never recovering (not sure about the Goldman article, which now I have to go back and read). I'm suggesting we're closer to 2000 than 2009 in terms of valuation of the market and being unwilling to consider that it could fall - maybe in 6 months, maybe in 2 years, who knows? - but going into that with a firm stance on "I will never reallocate my portfolio to be less than 100% stocks" is a real bad idea. That well ingrained thought process is going to hurt people who may not be as risk tolerant as all of you are.
You likely will come out ok after 5-6 years, by why not have an exit plan an make it 12-18 months?
This post was edited on 2/21/20 at 9:25 pm
Posted on 2/22/20 at 7:26 am to UpstairsComputer
[link=(by why not have an exit plan an make it 12-18 months?)]by why not have an exit plan an make it 12-18 months?[/link]
Because you can't predict the future and time the market. If I had an exit plan 12-18 months before every resession I wouldn't be working today.
Because you can't predict the future and time the market. If I had an exit plan 12-18 months before every resession I wouldn't be working today.
Posted on 2/22/20 at 8:02 am to tigersfan1989
What are you talking about? Nobody said anything about timing a recession 12-18 months out.
It may seem a bit complicated for your strategy of ‘I’ll just buy more soon’ but there are other ways to do it that don’t involve 35-50% drawdowns multiple times in a working career.
Your way is fine though if it works for you. My point, repeatedly, has been *most* people can’t successfully navigate these drawdowns by sitting on their hands and not get hurt in the process. Good for you if you can, but scoffing at people who are questioning the narrative isn’t helpful.
It may seem a bit complicated for your strategy of ‘I’ll just buy more soon’ but there are other ways to do it that don’t involve 35-50% drawdowns multiple times in a working career.
Your way is fine though if it works for you. My point, repeatedly, has been *most* people can’t successfully navigate these drawdowns by sitting on their hands and not get hurt in the process. Good for you if you can, but scoffing at people who are questioning the narrative isn’t helpful.
Posted on 2/22/20 at 8:30 am to UpstairsComputer
This is almost too perfect (check the timestamp on the article) CNBC Buffet Article
Sounds like a certain greatest investor ever can't find anything that isn't overvalued for his $135B in cash. That dummy must be market timing. Good enough for me.
quote:
...will make “equities the much better long-term choice for the individual who does not use borrowed money and who can control his or her emotions,” Buffett said.
The investing legend, however, offered a big caveat to his prediction: “Anything can happen to stock prices tomorrow.” He noted that occasionally, “there will be major drops in the market, perhaps of 50% magnitude or even greater.”
quote:
Buffett lamented once again in the letter that Berkshire has still not found an attractive acquisition target to spend the company’s massive cash hoard on.
Sounds like a certain greatest investor ever can't find anything that isn't overvalued for his $135B in cash. That dummy must be market timing. Good enough for me.
Posted on 2/22/20 at 9:23 am to UpstairsComputer
quote:
@jaydeertay84 (funny, btw), I'm sorry, but your questions don't have much to do with my point. Of course the market has recovered. However, for 2000-2013, your returns were 0%. Including two drops of 50-56%.
Holy date cherry picking. I am not even going to get into that.
quote:
The bottom in 2009 would have been a fantastic time to get in. My argument had nothing to do with the market never recovering (not sure about the Goldman article, which now I have to go back and read). I'm suggesting we're closer to 2000 than 2009 in terms of valuation of the market and being unwilling to consider that it could fall - maybe in 6 months, maybe in 2 years, who knows? - but going into that with a firm stance on "I will never reallocate my portfolio to be less than 100% stocks" is a real bad idea. That well ingrained thought process is going to hurt people who may not be as risk tolerant as all of you are.
You likely will come out ok after 5-6 years, by why not have an exit plan an make it 12-18 months?
In 2008-2009, you know, there was a reason for the crash.
Do you know what the reason is now? "it just cant go higher". Like WTF lol. People have been screaming about a recession since Trump took office.
Now the flu is going to cause it?
Odd, I dont see the worlds leading economy tanking.
Sure, China could get hit HARD, but IMO, all that means is the US come out even stronger.
I'm 35. I am going to grab this bull and hold on.
quote:
"I will never reallocate my portfolio to be less than 100% stocks"
I disagree. I think ETF's are a solid way to be invested early in life.
This post was edited on 2/22/20 at 9:28 am
Posted on 2/22/20 at 9:31 am to UpstairsComputer
quote:
UpstairsComputer
Another dimwitted "financial advisor". How surprising...
Posted on 2/22/20 at 11:18 am to UpstairsComputer
What about all the millions of people that only have retirement in a 401k? They can't just easily move their money to cash whenever the market takes a dip.
As far as Buffet goes, it's easy to say not to take on debt when you have billions of dollars.
As far as Buffet goes, it's easy to say not to take on debt when you have billions of dollars.
Posted on 2/22/20 at 12:02 pm to UpstairsComputer
Maybe I misunderstood you at first. So do you feel that buying into s&p index funds and staying 100% stocks is a sound financial plan in the long run if you have the tolerance to wait it out through down turns?
Posted on 2/22/20 at 2:59 pm to LSUSUPERSTAR
This must be part of where I’m not explaining myself well, I’m not saying move to cash on a correction. I should have read the article first but I read all the comments first. It’s more of a sector rotation over time with protections on the (large) downsides in accounts you can control.
Your point is correct though, most 401k options kinda suck. Luckily a lot of companies are moving to brokerage windows. If you don’t have one, it’s a rotation amongst what you do have: stocks, bonds, cash, and maybe real estate in most accounts.
Your point is correct though, most 401k options kinda suck. Luckily a lot of companies are moving to brokerage windows. If you don’t have one, it’s a rotation amongst what you do have: stocks, bonds, cash, and maybe real estate in most accounts.
Posted on 2/22/20 at 3:09 pm to tigersfan1989
I think the Fed is increasing the risk of a japanification of the market, but beyond that, yes. If you can hold out it should be better overall returns than an age based fund. My point is there are people, here, reading this, posting about it, that have never been through a 50%+ drawdown with $1M account (or large account period). Not you, I appreciate the discourse, but when someone loses 500k+, they learn to appreciate defense.
Pay attention to how many people are on one side of this discussion and how people that say it’s not different this time get criticized.
Pay attention to how many people are on one side of this discussion and how people that say it’s not different this time get criticized.
Posted on 2/22/20 at 3:42 pm to UpstairsComputer
I will admit I haven't experienced a 50% decline in my portfolio so I can't speak to it, but I would hope I would stay the course and keep my positions. I know once put in that situation its easier said then done.
Posted on 2/22/20 at 3:45 pm to UpstairsComputer
quote:
I'm suggesting we're closer to 2000 than 2009 in terms of valuation of the market
Lol. One was a bull market top and the other a bear market bottom and the markets recently hitting all time highs. Of course we are. A better question is are we closer to 1995 or 2000?
Posted on 2/22/20 at 5:24 pm to UpstairsComputer
quote:
This must be part of where I’m not explaining myself well
You aren't. You may be a brilliant person but you can't make a succint point. Go back and read your posts in this thread and pretend you are someone else that doesn't know you. Tell me if you can understand wtf you are trying to say.
Posted on 2/22/20 at 7:39 pm to CajunTiger92
Fair question, still doesn’t mean people shouldn’t be considering a plan B. There are a ton of similarities to 2000 (eta. Really more like 1999) which is why I used that as a reference. And 2009 was posters reference.
This post was edited on 2/22/20 at 8:02 pm
Posted on 2/22/20 at 7:55 pm to PetroBabich
Meh, I ain’t too smart. I went back and reread. I stick by my original post.
Any time someone comes on here and expresses concern they get shite on. 30 down votes and counting now for OP.
OP clearly doesn’t have 100% stock risk tolerance yet everyone is telling him his concerns are dumb by their comments and downvotes. Anyone who replied with concerns, also downvoted.
None of these people are doing a service to non-100% stock investors by making them feel their concerns are invalid, cause when bad shite happens they won’t come back here - last time they got shite on - what they’ll do it sell when they can’t sleep and frick up several years worth of gains. All this, and not one damn person asked his situation.
It just pisses me off and I tried to offer a rational alternative to ‘sell it all’. Sorry to high jack the thread but all the other tentacles of conversation were other people making random comments I didn’t bring up.
Any time someone comes on here and expresses concern they get shite on. 30 down votes and counting now for OP.
OP clearly doesn’t have 100% stock risk tolerance yet everyone is telling him his concerns are dumb by their comments and downvotes. Anyone who replied with concerns, also downvoted.
None of these people are doing a service to non-100% stock investors by making them feel their concerns are invalid, cause when bad shite happens they won’t come back here - last time they got shite on - what they’ll do it sell when they can’t sleep and frick up several years worth of gains. All this, and not one damn person asked his situation.
It just pisses me off and I tried to offer a rational alternative to ‘sell it all’. Sorry to high jack the thread but all the other tentacles of conversation were other people making random comments I didn’t bring up.
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