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re: A 32-year market vet warns the S&P 500 is set to fall 50% - 70% in the years ahead
Posted on 4/1/24 at 12:25 pm to rickgrimes
Posted on 4/1/24 at 12:25 pm to rickgrimes
Are We Living in the Roaring Twenties? by Ben Carlson, CFA
If you want to read a counter perspective...because you can find any perspective on any given day.
If you want to read a counter perspective...because you can find any perspective on any given day.
1
Posted on 4/1/24 at 2:49 pm to RoyalWe
stock market Bears are eventually right, but if you invest according to them you lose out over time.
Posted on 4/1/24 at 2:56 pm to MAROON
Google "Jeremy Grantham" sometime.
He's projected a doomsday market meltdown every year for the last 25 years. That's as long as I have known about him.
I bet this guy is selling gold and pushing emerging markets investments.
He's projected a doomsday market meltdown every year for the last 25 years. That's as long as I have known about him.
I bet this guy is selling gold and pushing emerging markets investments.
Posted on 4/1/24 at 3:39 pm to CharlesUFarley
quote:I don't agree that GMO is in the same category as this guy.
Google "Jeremy Grantham" sometime.
He's projected a doomsday market meltdown every year for the last 25 years. That's as long as I have known about him.
Posted on 4/1/24 at 4:31 pm to fallguy_1978
quote:
I think we are overdue for a correction but not 50-70%
Posted on 4/1/24 at 10:58 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:
I don't agree that GMO is in the same category as this guy.
You're probably right. They probably only sound the same.
Posted on 4/2/24 at 9:11 am to wutangfinancial
quote:
"The market" is not overvalued. Have you not looked at earnings? There's only 3 sectors that didn't grow Small-caps got hammered but most people have no exposure to those share prices.
The three major indices all have PE ratios north of 20. Even with the high profits.
Posted on 4/2/24 at 9:22 am to Bestbank Tiger
quote:
The three major indices all have PE ratios north of 20. Even with the high profits.
Correct because the most profitable names with the largest market caps are the only shares with enough liquidity to handle the volume of buying and selling by passive funds and market makers hedging options books. It's not your father's market where P/Es drive transactions.
ETA: These companies also have the largest buyback programs.
This post was edited on 4/2/24 at 9:23 am
Posted on 4/2/24 at 9:40 am to Newgene
quote:
Is this the same guy's article from 2021 predicting the same thing?
But he was only a 29-year market vet then.
Posted on 4/2/24 at 10:14 am to Black n Gold
quote:
Correct because the most profitable names with the largest market caps are the only shares with enough liquidity to handle the volume of buying and selling by passive funds and market makers hedging options books. It's not your father's market where P/Es drive transactions. ETA: These companies also have the largest buyback programs.
P/E is P/E you can dress it up, but you can’t change market fundamentals.
Posted on 4/2/24 at 11:06 am to Warfox
P/E is the most flawed valuation metric because of the dynamics I just explained. The floats aren’t even remotely similar to even the 90s.
Posted on 4/2/24 at 11:22 am to Lsut81
quote:
Been hearing this stuff for the last 3 years.
Rates will cause crash
CC debt will cause crash
Housing prices will cause crash
The exact reason I'm not in finance, because I thought the CC debt coming out of Covid until now would have caused a pullback, but I would be wrong.
Right there with you.
No idea how the current valuations in the housing market have sustained themselves but here we are.
Posted on 4/2/24 at 4:57 pm to rickgrimes
No one knows the future and predictive models don't predict.
Posted on 4/2/24 at 6:01 pm to rickgrimes
quote:
A 32-year market vet warns the S&P 500 is set to fall 50% - 70% in the years ahead
Calls on SPY it is!
Posted on 4/2/24 at 9:06 pm to Lsut81
quote:
Been hearing this stuff for the last 3 years.
Rates will cause crash
CC debt will cause crash
Housing prices will cause crash
The exact reason I'm not in finance, because I thought the CC debt coming out of Covid until now would have caused a pullback, but I would be wrong.
"It takes longer to happen than you think, but when it does, it happens faster than you could imagine."
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