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Message
re: 2 year inverted yield curve
Posted on 4/22/24 at 12:54 pm to Big Scrub TX
Posted on 4/22/24 at 12:54 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:
Big Scrub TX
4 posts in a row? For someone who's been around since 2013, you have absolutely no self-awareness.
1
Posted on 4/22/24 at 1:07 pm to Tomatocantender
quote:frick off. I'm not aggregating a response to 4 different posters. I'm responding separately.
4 posts in a row? For someone who's been around since 2013, you have absolutely no self-awareness.
Posted on 4/22/24 at 1:07 pm to Bard
Posted on 4/22/24 at 1:30 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:
frick off. I'm not aggregating a response to 4 different posters. I'm responding separately.
Like I said, you have zero self-awareness especially in a 2-page Money thread. Thanks for confirming that you do, in fact, have zero self-awareness.
Posted on 4/22/24 at 2:09 pm to Crescent Connection
quote:So you have 20-25+ year horizon and you are thinking about trying to time this thing? That is beyond crazy. 5 year horizon? I can understand the move. 25 years? No fricking way
I'm racking my brains over this. I'm 39. Tempted to put all future 403b/401k contributions for my wife and I into money market/cash starting this week with the anticipation of a hard recession similar to 2007-2009. I would not touch all current investments. Reassess 14-18 months out? Wise or foolish?
Posted on 4/22/24 at 2:52 pm to Tomatocantender
quote:Oh, I just noticed. You're the "blame it on the POTUS" guy who doesn't like any reason or logic to enter the discussion. Carry on.
Like I said, you have zero self-awareness especially in a 2-page Money thread. Thanks for confirming that you do, in fact, have zero self-awareness.
Posted on 4/22/24 at 3:23 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:
It has felt like a recession for 2 years
It has? Please share some details.
Lack of wage growth, stagflation, inflation, rising interest rates
At least construction materials seem to have come down
Posted on 4/22/24 at 3:37 pm to StonewallJack
quote:Wages were up over 4% in 2023. What was inflation for that year?
Lack of wage growth
Posted on 4/22/24 at 4:05 pm to StonewallJack
quote:
Lack of wage growth, stagflation, inflation, rising interest rates At least construction materials seem to have come down
Panels just went up 20-30%.
Posted on 4/22/24 at 4:10 pm to jcaz
quote:
Started to become worried it's all going to come crashing down out of nowhere.
There's two outcomes in the long run:
1 Money isn't real and the national debt doesn't matter so we run it up to a quadrillion and never worry about paying it off, or just print money to pay it off.
2 It all comes crashing catastrophically down and we have an entire generation of suffering.
Posted on 4/22/24 at 4:31 pm to TigerTatorTots
quote:
So you have 20-25+ year horizon and you are thinking about trying to time this thing? That is beyond crazy. 5 year horizon? I can understand the move. 25 years? No fricking way
I'm 46 and not at all worried about a big drop. Maybe if I was 62 I'd be less aggressive.
This post was edited on 4/22/24 at 4:32 pm
Posted on 4/22/24 at 6:26 pm to fallguy_1978
quote:
46 and not at all worried about a big drop. Maybe if I was 62 I'd be less aggressive.
62-year-old me would tell 46-year-old me to keep stacking stacks, and watching for blue chip-ish that are going to have a high return rate from the dividends.
Strong companies that the market tanking brought their stock price down, making their common dividends now pay 9-10%. Back up that F-150, load up on them, and go long.
Posted on 4/22/24 at 7:56 pm to Thundercles
quote:
1 Money isn't real and the national debt doesn't matter so we run it up to a quadrillion and never worry about paying it off, or just print money to pay it off.
This seems to be the path we're taking but a $40 gallon of milk will bring the house of cards down eventually.
Posted on 4/22/24 at 10:06 pm to Crescent Connection
quote:
I'm racking my brains over this. I'm 39. Tempted to put all future 403b/401k contributions for my wife and I into money market/cash starting this week with the anticipation of a hard recession similar to 2007-2009. I would not touch all current investments. Reassess 14-18 months out? Wise or foolish?
When stock prices drop, they are on sale. Why on earth would you want to miss out on cheaper prices?
Posted on 4/23/24 at 2:38 pm to SlidellCajun
Economists have predicted 12 of the last 6 recessions.
Posted on 4/23/24 at 7:50 pm to Thundercles
It’s going to go slower than that
We’re going to see more fighting over benefits to the funded programs like social security and Medicare as the debt payment becomes a bigger issue.
Once we start seeing some cutting back on these programs, we’ll see some political will to make the hard decisions.
We’re going to see more fighting over benefits to the funded programs like social security and Medicare as the debt payment becomes a bigger issue.
Once we start seeing some cutting back on these programs, we’ll see some political will to make the hard decisions.
Posted on 4/23/24 at 8:24 pm to UpstairsComputer
I hope there is another recession. Real estate prices are wayyyy overinflated. I'll just pull out all my money in stocks. My company at my job has plenty money to continue on. My 401k will take a hit but it'll rebound. I'll buy a house if/when it happens and give a big middle finger to all these greedy people and real estate agents letting them know that "No you're 1500 sq ft house isn't worth remotely $500k, more like $200k"
Posted on 4/23/24 at 8:27 pm to skewbs
quote:
When stock prices drop, they are on sale. Why on earth would you want to miss out on cheaper prices?
Do you not understand that if he keeps his money in those 401k, that it'll drop that amount. It's basically like saying if someone is holding onto NVDA at $1,000, and it's predicted to go to $500, saying why would you want to sell it when you can buy at $500. Doesn't make sense, he's already invested. If he holds, it too drops 50%. What should he do? Hold until it drops 50%? The wise move is what he is suggesting would be to sell now and buy back at low. You can't buy anything if you're money is already tied up in a tanking stock market
This post was edited on 4/23/24 at 8:29 pm
Posted on 4/23/24 at 8:28 pm to Saunson69
quote:
I'll buy a house if/when it happens and give a big middle finger to all these greedy people and real estate agents letting them know that "No you're 1500 sq ft house isn't worth remotely $500k, more like $200k"
I have a strong feeling that this won’t happen.
As rates decrease, prices are going to escalate as more money is available to buy and sellers loosen up to the notion of moving without giving up that low mortgage.
I think now might just be the low in the real estate market for a good while
Posted on 4/23/24 at 8:33 pm to SlidellCajun
The low lol? You're not looking at the big picture. The fact that majority of Americans can't afford housing and markets will always adjust to where a large percentage can. I'm positive a correction will happen within next 2-3 years. No shot it doesn't tank based on prior housing price to inflation/median income of US households. Would not be surprised to see even up to a 30% correction. It's at its peak now and every single time it has done this in the past, it drops significantly. It'd be hard to view that link and believe that it will not drop by a pretty large margin.
The other thing is that housing prices were at inflation increases from 1950 to 2000. Since 2000, it's way outpaced inflation. You see on the link a large correction in 2008, we are the peak today. It could even be worse than a 2008 correction. It may get back in line with 1950 through 2000 rates.
https://www.longtermtrends.net/home-price-vs-inflation/
The other thing is that housing prices were at inflation increases from 1950 to 2000. Since 2000, it's way outpaced inflation. You see on the link a large correction in 2008, we are the peak today. It could even be worse than a 2008 correction. It may get back in line with 1950 through 2000 rates.
https://www.longtermtrends.net/home-price-vs-inflation/
This post was edited on 4/23/24 at 8:45 pm
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