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re: Why would a depth limited team like LSU start an ACE against a lower seeded team?
Posted on 5/30/24 at 9:14 am to MikeTheTiger71
Posted on 5/30/24 at 9:14 am to MikeTheTiger71
quote:
UNC was 9-1 in conference Game 3s (and undefeated non-conference), averaging 11.2 R/G, and scoring less than 9 runs only twice. LSU was 2-8 in conference Game 3s giving up 8.5 R/G and quite often being shutdown offensively.
This won’t be a conference game for either of them.
How is this relevant to now? How are the schedules even remotely comparable? This LSU team now would beat the LSU team from earlier in the season
You absolutely make sure you win gone one with as few of pitchers as possible and you do all you can to win game two as well.
UNC doesn’t have a third guy either and if they have to play an extra game before they see you again they will be running out of pitchers.
Limiting your best arms in game one to use against them in game two is ideal. And if you have to use them all to beat them in game then you do it.
This post was edited on 5/30/24 at 9:18 am
0
Posted on 5/30/24 at 9:25 am to TigerCub
quote:
You'd really be OK with going 0-2 and not pitching either of your top 2 starters? Try explaining that to your team after the weekend.
Yes, I would. If they go 0-2, they weren’t going to win the Regional anyway. If anything, it would demonstrate just how slim their chances of making it through actually were and how much they needed to roll the dice to have a shot.
Posted on 5/30/24 at 9:32 am to MikeTheTiger71
quote:
Yes, I would. If they go 0-2, they weren’t going to win the Regional anyway. If anything, it would demonstrate just how slim their chances of making it through actually were and how much they needed to roll the dice to have a shot.
Well you're entitled to your opinion but I couldn't disagree more. Jay would be roundly criticized for that and would deserve every bit of it. That is in no way giving your team the best chance to win anything. And above all, it shows how little confidence you have in them. Of course this is all a futile discussion because there is a 0.0001% chance he pitches off anyway.
Posted on 5/30/24 at 9:38 am to moneyg
quote:
It’s actually not a must win because losing game 1 gives you a freebie game 2.
wtf?
Posted on 5/30/24 at 9:40 am to moneyg
quote:
It’s actually not a must win because losing game 1 gives you a freebie game 2
Wow dude you are truly clueless about the mental landscape of being in a losers bracket
Posted on 5/30/24 at 9:41 am to Hurricane2020
Tbh, is its OK with many here to start the ack/Hurd/ulloa train against UNC most likely in game 3(if we win g2) why is it a no no to start them against a weaker team in game 1 and save our top 2 for g2/g3?
Just like everyone here thinks it's okay to start the wholestaff train in game 3 but not game 1?
If we can't beat wofford in game 1 with our bullpen, it won't matter anyways. What makes anyone believe we would win against UNC with the bullpen if everyone is so against beating Wofford with bullpen?
Just like everyone here thinks it's okay to start the wholestaff train in game 3 but not game 1?
If we can't beat wofford in game 1 with our bullpen, it won't matter anyways. What makes anyone believe we would win against UNC with the bullpen if everyone is so against beating Wofford with bullpen?
This post was edited on 5/30/24 at 9:43 am
Posted on 5/30/24 at 9:46 am to MarciMoshes
quote:
If we can't beat wofford in game 1 with our bullpen, it won't matter anyways. What makes anyone believe we would win against UNC with the bullpen if everyone is so against beating Wofford with bullpen?
Who says we can't beat Wofford with our bullpen?
But why would we stress the bullpen in game 1 of potentially 5 games? Why not throw Gage Jump and get 7 or even 8 out of him.
We would then play UNC with Holman. And if we win that one, we would play UNC in their game 4 but our game 3, with a lot of the bullets left that you think we should waste in game 1.
Posted on 5/30/24 at 10:08 am to Hurricane2020
Read this slowly and carefully........
Jay Johnson started arguably the best pitcher in the history of college baseball, at home, against a #4 seed with a 19-41 record.
Whether you agree with the decision or not, this let's me know (and should be clear to everyone) that JJ will always start his ace in the first game of a regional. It's not even debatable.
Jay Johnson started arguably the best pitcher in the history of college baseball, at home, against a #4 seed with a 19-41 record.
Whether you agree with the decision or not, this let's me know (and should be clear to everyone) that JJ will always start his ace in the first game of a regional. It's not even debatable.
Posted on 5/30/24 at 10:14 am to Hold That Tiger 10
quote:
That's where your thread is flawed. This is the post season, we aren't rationing out shite. You use what's necessary to win the game you are playing.
Posted on 5/30/24 at 10:14 am to SouthEndzoneTiger
quote:
Jay Johnson started arguably the best pitcher in the history of college baseball, at home, against a #4 seed with a 19-41 record.
In a game where a rain delay was expected. If there was ever a game to throw off, it was that game, and Jay still decided to throw Skenes.
Posted on 5/30/24 at 10:29 am to ProjectP2294
quote:
We would then play UNC with Holman. And if we win that one, we would play UNC in their game 4 but our game 3, with a lot of the bullets left that you think we should waste in game 1.
I understand the logic of not wanting to risk falling into the losers’ bracket because they don’t have enough pitching to fight their way out. I don’t understand the logic here. Why is it better to have more bullpen pitchers available for Game 3 than it is to have Holman available for Game 3? And if they lose Game 3, why is it better for the bullpen to have been used more on Sunday than on Friday?
LSU’s best chance of making it out of the Regional is to go 3-0. The question is whether they have a better chance of beating Wofford or UNC with the pen. UNC’s track record of feasting on Sundays suggests to me they have a better shot at 3-0 if they go with Ack in Game 1. The next best scenario is to go 2-0, then split the final two games. Starting Jump in Game 1 gives them a better shot at starting 2-0, but if LSU loses Game 3, I have very little confidence they have enough pitching at that point to salvage Game 4.
Posted on 5/30/24 at 10:35 am to Hurricane2020
Because taking your opponent lightly can bite you in the arse. Go all out and win the first game.
Posted on 5/30/24 at 10:38 am to ProjectP2294
quote:I can agree also with this. Very valid.
why would we stress the bullpen in game 1 of potentially 5 games? Why not throw Gage Jump and get 7 or even 8 out of him.
I guess what I meant by bullpen was Ack/Hurd.
This post was edited on 5/30/24 at 10:42 am
Posted on 5/30/24 at 10:38 am to MikeTheTiger71
quote:
Yes, I would. If they go 0-2, they weren’t going to win the Regional anyway. If anything, it would demonstrate just how slim their chances of making it through actually were and how much they needed to roll the dice to have a shot.
We’ve had some “interesting” opinions going into this regional, but this one has to take the cake…smh
Posted on 5/30/24 at 10:40 am to TigerCub
quote:
Well you're entitled to your opinion but I couldn't disagree more. Jay would be roundly criticized for that and would deserve every bit of it. That is in no way giving your team the best chance to win anything. And above all, it shows how little confidence you have in them. Of course this is all a futile discussion because there is a 0.0001% chance he pitches off anyway.
I understand the argument the other way. It’s certainly less risky. I’m not saying LSU can’t beat UNC with the bullpen. I just think it’s less likely. It’s not so much a lack of confidence in LSU as it is healthy respect for UNC. This draw for LSU was absolutely the worst possible. Against a less potent offensive team, I’d have more confidence and I would start Jump in Game 1. All that said, I agree with you that Johnson is going to start Jump so this discussion is completely academic.
Posted on 5/30/24 at 10:45 am to Hurricane2020
quote:
Our game 3 wholesale pitching has been miserable all year. We have been beaten, blown out, run ruled, or given up 10+ points against every team we didn't start our Friday or staturday starter.
First of all, we score runs in baseball, not points. Second of all, using hyperbole to try to confirm your OP is lame. "against every team" we didn't start our ace? Really?
quote:
The only game 3 we won was against aTm that I can think of.
Do you even follow LSU baseball. A&M is the only Sunday win we have all season that you can think of? What if I told you we didn't beat A&M on Sunday. In fact they beat us 14-4. However, we did beat VMI, Stony Brook, Texas State, Missouri, and Ole Miss on Sunday.
Posted on 5/30/24 at 10:54 am to MarciMoshes
quote:
I guess what I meant by bullpen was Ack/Hurd.
Ideally the bats go to work on Friday and we can have Dutton and Hellmers bring it home. Maybe even Bucknam (who I feel like may be the replacement for Little on the roster, while Hellmers/Ulloa would be soaking up Little's actual innings).
Then UNC with Holman and Herring (ideally).
Then you go into Sunday with Ack hopefully throwing like he did against Tennessee on Sunday but extending out. Dutton or Ulloa to finish an inning, and then Hurd to start a clean inning and hopefully give us at least two good innings before the wheels fall off and we play match ups the rest of the game and hope the bats stay hot.
Posted on 5/30/24 at 11:24 am to MikeTheTiger71
That's kinda what I've seen from researching their season. Their batters destroy Sunday pitching.
Posted on 5/30/24 at 11:53 am to Hurricane2020
What did their pitchers do on Sunday? Did they give up runs too or throw shutouts?
Posted on 5/30/24 at 11:56 am to SouthEndzoneTiger
Baseball traditionalists are insufferably snobby. Does baseball use an objective point scoring system that determines which team wins a game? I'm pretty sure they do. They award a single POINT for every run. If a team earns 7 runs, there's 7 POINTS on the scoreboard. They are interchangable, it isn't that serious.
If you read further down from that post I corrected myself. I was thinking ole miss but wrote aTm. I have watched at least 3 innings of every SEC game this year. Work schedule and home life has made it hard to watch alot of full games this season.
But even by your own response, we have beaten ZERO teams with a winning record on Sundays during the regular season. We also got run ruled like 4 times on Sunday and allowed around 9 runs per game.
Realistically we have only had 2 SEC starting caliber pitchers since post Tennessee, when Jump started playing good again. Up until that point it was: Win game 1, hope you can outhit your opponent in a shootout game 2, get blown the frick out game 3. Now the only difference is our game 2 is nearly an auto win with Jump, but game 3 is AT BEST a shootout.
If you read further down from that post I corrected myself. I was thinking ole miss but wrote aTm. I have watched at least 3 innings of every SEC game this year. Work schedule and home life has made it hard to watch alot of full games this season.
But even by your own response, we have beaten ZERO teams with a winning record on Sundays during the regular season. We also got run ruled like 4 times on Sunday and allowed around 9 runs per game.
Realistically we have only had 2 SEC starting caliber pitchers since post Tennessee, when Jump started playing good again. Up until that point it was: Win game 1, hope you can outhit your opponent in a shootout game 2, get blown the frick out game 3. Now the only difference is our game 2 is nearly an auto win with Jump, but game 3 is AT BEST a shootout.
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