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Message
Why put someone back to return punts at all?
Posted on 9/6/22 at 3:05 pm
Posted on 9/6/22 at 3:05 pm
Opposing team is literally giving you the ball. ~60% of punts are either fair catches or unreturnable (ie. kicked out of bounds or into endzone). The remaining 40% are returned with about 3.5% being muffed and 0.6% being returned for a touchdown. The ratio of # of muffs vs. the number of punts returned for a touchdown is astonishingly high. That stat alone should indicate we really shouldn't even put a man back there to risk the muff.
There's the argument that you put a man back there to catch balls to avoid the ball rolling deeper into our territory which is fair, but I think when the opposing team is punting outside their own 35 yard line, you really should not even put a man back there. The average punt return yardage is like 12 yards so it's really not overly material. These special teams slip ups are how less superior teams can level the playing field in a game. Just hard to think of the upside of even trying to touch a punt inside your own 20 late in a game. 'Oh but dude he could return it!' Well yeah but statistically there's a 10x greater chance he muffs it and we lose the game. The distribution of possible outcomes is way skewed to the negative.
There's the argument that you put a man back there to catch balls to avoid the ball rolling deeper into our territory which is fair, but I think when the opposing team is punting outside their own 35 yard line, you really should not even put a man back there. The average punt return yardage is like 12 yards so it's really not overly material. These special teams slip ups are how less superior teams can level the playing field in a game. Just hard to think of the upside of even trying to touch a punt inside your own 20 late in a game. 'Oh but dude he could return it!' Well yeah but statistically there's a 10x greater chance he muffs it and we lose the game. The distribution of possible outcomes is way skewed to the negative.
18
Posted on 9/6/22 at 3:06 pm to Jasonwilliamstaxes28
Because its a battle of field position.
I also remember a time when TM7 returned punts and it changed momentum, Arkansas being one of those games. I remember CJ3 doing it as well.
I also remember a time when TM7 returned punts and it changed momentum, Arkansas being one of those games. I remember CJ3 doing it as well.
Posted on 9/6/22 at 3:08 pm to PaperTiger
I literally argued in the case of field position where we need the ball to stop from rolling, someone should catch it. Otherwise, don't put anyone back there.
Posted on 9/6/22 at 3:08 pm to Jasonwilliamstaxes28
Because you can net approximately 20 yards with a good punt returner if he just averages 10 yards a return. With no one back there receiving punt you can expect to give up an extra 10 yards to the kicking team.
Those hidden yards add up during a game.
Those hidden yards add up during a game.
Posted on 9/6/22 at 3:08 pm to Jasonwilliamstaxes28
Of course no one really does that, but I’ve certainly wondered the same thing over the years. The risk-reward isn’t there most of the time.
Posted on 9/6/22 at 3:10 pm to JPLSU1981
quote:
Of course no one really does that, but I’ve certainly wondered the same thing over the years. The risk-reward isn’t there most of the time.
With a good punt returner the risk-reward is most certainly there.
Posted on 9/6/22 at 3:12 pm to Jasonwilliamstaxes28
In the old days, he wouldnt have gotten another return for the remainder of the game.
I understand Kelly's logic, and perhaps that's the way you have to handle these things in the age of diva players and the transfer portal, but there is a reason football coaches have done it that way for decades - and you saw it Sunday night.
I understand Kelly's logic, and perhaps that's the way you have to handle these things in the age of diva players and the transfer portal, but there is a reason football coaches have done it that way for decades - and you saw it Sunday night.
Posted on 9/6/22 at 3:12 pm to Jasonwilliamstaxes28
There's a lot of ways to answer this but I guess I'll land on...
because if I have someone back there I'm more in control of my own destiny. I can let the ball and hopefully bounce into the end zone. I can catch it and hopefully get positive yards. I'm not letting the other team decide that I start on the 15 or the 5, etc.
because if I have someone back there I'm more in control of my own destiny. I can let the ball and hopefully bounce into the end zone. I can catch it and hopefully get positive yards. I'm not letting the other team decide that I start on the 15 or the 5, etc.
Posted on 9/6/22 at 3:16 pm to Jasonwilliamstaxes28
or
have someone that can actually catch punts back there. crazy idea, I know.
have someone that can actually catch punts back there. crazy idea, I know.
Posted on 9/6/22 at 3:17 pm to Jasonwilliamstaxes28
quote:
The ratio of # of muffs vs. the number of punts returned for a touchdown is astonishingly high.
And this is an astonishingly stupid ratio to make your argument. There’s 98 yards of alternate outcomes between your all or nothing “reasoning.”
Posted on 9/6/22 at 3:17 pm to Jasonwilliamstaxes28
The same reason you rush on extra points and field goals. It might happen and it might not but you have to try
This post was edited on 9/7/22 at 10:11 am
Posted on 9/6/22 at 3:18 pm to Jasonwilliamstaxes28
Did you know that 93.8% of all stats given on TD are made up on the spot. 
Posted on 9/6/22 at 3:18 pm to PaperTiger
quote:
I also remember a time when TM7 returned punts and it changed momentum
It wasn't just the return td's late in the season from TM7, if you really studied Honey Badger on returns you saw how he would rarely let the ball hit the turf. He mastered the ability to come underneath those end over end rugby punts and really preserved field position. His football IQ and instincts were off the charts even on special teams.
Posted on 9/6/22 at 3:18 pm to JPLSU1981
quote:
The risk-reward isn’t there most of the time.
The risk is pretty low almost all of the time.
Posted on 9/6/22 at 3:20 pm to Jasonwilliamstaxes28
Congrats. Dumbest post of the day and that includes me arguing with people that Baskerville didn't play because they hadn't updated the participation report when I looked at it. 
Posted on 9/6/22 at 3:21 pm to Jasonwilliamstaxes28
I hope you upvoted yourself, because two people this dumb in the world would be really sad.
Posted on 9/6/22 at 3:21 pm to Jasonwilliamstaxes28
To stop punts from rolling and being pinned in the 1
That’s why you fair catch it.
Punts rarely bounce your way.
That’s why you fair catch it.
Punts rarely bounce your way.
Posted on 9/6/22 at 3:30 pm to Vacherie Saint
quote:
In the old days, he wouldnt have gotten another return for the remainder of the game.
I understand Kelly's logic, and perhaps that's the way you have to handle these things in the age of diva players and the transfer portal, but there is a reason football coaches have done it that way for decades - and you saw it Sunday night.
It was the first punt of the first game of the season. The kid made a mistake. I doubt they sent him out there with no practice whatsoever to field the punt. Clearly there was a reason they felt he was the best option at that spot. If coaches are going to bench players for ONE mistake then you are just asking for guys to play scared and hesitant. That means EVERY player would be benched at some point during the game.
Now, after the second fumble you have to reconsider the position going forward, but if I were a player I would hope my coach wouldn't quit on me after one bad play.
Posted on 9/6/22 at 3:32 pm to Tomatocantender
I agree, Mathieu was such a game changer as a returner.
Our return game in recent years has been abysmal. Stingley generally fielded the punt, but he was seldom a threat to do anything with it. I think the advent of the rugby punters has made the return game a bit more difficult, but some teams still manage to have dangerous returners. Seems like we should be able to get a lot more production than we do.
Our return game in recent years has been abysmal. Stingley generally fielded the punt, but he was seldom a threat to do anything with it. I think the advent of the rugby punters has made the return game a bit more difficult, but some teams still manage to have dangerous returners. Seems like we should be able to get a lot more production than we do.
Posted on 9/6/22 at 3:35 pm to GumboPot
Punt return is the one thing you can still impact field position with and bust a return
The kick return has been pretty much eliminated from the game
Extra points ought to be moved back like the NFL and that might encourage more college teams to go for two instead
The kick return has been pretty much eliminated from the game
Extra points ought to be moved back like the NFL and that might encourage more college teams to go for two instead
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