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Started By
Message
re: Vegas Line is Very Worrisome
Posted on 11/4/15 at 8:53 am to GeauxToBed
Posted on 11/4/15 at 8:53 am to GeauxToBed
quote:
There was a time you said LSU under miles would never beat Alabama and saban again, I remember reading that back in 2008 or 2008....remember?
quote:
Member since Sep 2014
Just saying...
0
Posted on 11/4/15 at 8:57 am to New Boy
I got it at +6 and feel completely fine with it. Almost wanna throw something on that ML.
Posted on 11/4/15 at 9:05 am to New Boy
Bama is a public favorite. Just like TCU, Baylor, Ohio State, and a few others. Their lines will always be inflated by a few points. and typically a home team gets 3 points or so for being the home team. I think the line should be somewhere right around Bama-3.5. But Vegas knows that perception is reality and people still perceive Bama to be a dynasty based on what they did the last few years. Tigers are the bet here chief. And I'm not even saying to win outright, but if you want to give a top 5 team a touchdown then you take that all day long imo.
Posted on 11/4/15 at 9:10 am to Paul Allen
quote:
All joiking aside, not sure why it's not -3.5/4 line, like it should be
"Like it should be?" According to who?
Are you people really this dense?
Vegas sets a line, and moves the line, to get equal money bet on each team, and Vegas collects the vig. This is how bookies operate and make their money.
The line has nothing to do with Vegas "knowing something."
Posted on 11/4/15 at 9:17 am to New Boy
quote:
The line opened with the Tigers as 7 point dogs and it has not moved much at all.
This just means that the general public is betting how the bookies thought they would.
Posted on 11/4/15 at 9:22 am to atltiger6487
quote:
Vegas sets a line, and moves the line, to get equal money bet on each team, and Vegas collects the vig. This is how bookies operate and make their money.
Then why, with 66% of the public money on LSU to cover, has the line not moved more in an effort for Vegas to get "equal money bet on each team"?
Vegas doesn't need equal money on each team to make money.
Posted on 11/4/15 at 9:46 am to atltiger6487
quote:
"Like it should be?" According to who? Are you people really this dense? Vegas sets a line, and moves the line, to get equal money bet on each team, and Vegas collects the vig. This is how bookies operate and make their money. The line has nothing to do with Vegas "knowing something."
For fricks sake. Most of the posters in this thread are pulling shite straight out of their asses. You are wrong. They do not try to get even amounts of bets on teams.
The line means Vegas thinks Bama will win. That doesn't mean we can't win. What does bode well for us is that most of the money went to LSU and so the line came down a little. The line generally will move the direction that the "sharps" so it appears they are betting on LSU. If the line stayed steady while 70% of the money goes on LSU, that would be a BAD thing.
Posted on 11/4/15 at 9:48 am to New Boy
quote:
Vegas must know something....
Like this time against Ole Miss? Ya big dummy.
LINK
quote:
Alabama is a 7-point betting favorite at home according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com. This has been an active line early in the week with Ole Miss opening as an 8.5-point underdog, moving down to +6.5 and now back up to +7.
Posted on 11/4/15 at 9:50 am to mattgr1983
quote:
The line means Vegas thinks Bama will win.
Only if you define "Vegas" as "global bettors".
Posted on 11/4/15 at 9:52 am to mikelbr
Why is the line worrisome? The line is design to divide action not predict an outcome.
FWIW Northern Illinois was a 7pt dog last night to Top 25 ranked Toledo. Northern Illinois won straight up 32-27.
FWIW Northern Illinois was a 7pt dog last night to Top 25 ranked Toledo. Northern Illinois won straight up 32-27.
Posted on 11/4/15 at 9:56 am to Six3
quote:
The line is design to divide action not predict an outcome.
Wrong. Explain to me why a team could get 80% of the action, yet then Vegas will give them an extra point. It happens all the time. There is an entire betting system based off of it call reverse line movement.
Posted on 11/4/15 at 10:00 am to mattgr1983
quote:
Wrong. Explain to me why a team could get 80% of the action, yet then Vegas will give them an extra point. It happens all the time. There is an entire betting system based off of it call reverse line movement.
WRONG!
More bets from the public are likely to be made for the favorite, possibly to such an extent that there would be very few betters willing to take the underdog.
Posted on 11/4/15 at 10:09 am to Six3
quote:
WRONG! More bets from the public are likely to be made for the favorite, possibly to such an extent that there would be very few betters willing to take the underdog.
Wait I thought Vegas only cared about balanced action? Why do they set so many lines that the public hammers the favorite on?
Go check the results on lines. Over a 10 year sample I bet favorite vs dog is almost exactly 50/50 on the results. Vegas moves lines when they realize they might have been slightly off. They discover this when all the expert money comes on on one side.
Vegas sets as accurate lines as they can, handles the variance/swings, and makes money on the juice. Simple as that.
Posted on 11/4/15 at 11:23 am to mattgr1983
quote:
You are wrong. They do not try to get even amounts of bets on teams.
Care to explain, in detail please?
On any given day, a Vegas book has hundreds of bets you can make. They're not trying to pick winners, they're trying to get bettors to bet equal amounts of money on each side of a bet, and they pocket the vig regardless of who wins or loses.
Sorry if you don't understand, but that's the way it works.
Posted on 11/4/15 at 11:27 am to New Boy
Shut up and take the points. What do you have against free money?
Posted on 11/4/15 at 1:00 pm to atltiger6487
A 10% return while utilizing other people's cash is a great way to make a buck.
Posted on 11/4/15 at 1:01 pm to atltiger6487
Thinks he understands how Vegas works but really has no clue
Posted on 11/4/15 at 1:06 pm to Sultan of Swing
quote:
Thinks he understands how Vegas works but really has no clue
Line opens at +7 and 80% of money comes in on an underdog, Vegas then moves the line to +8. Explain that logic to me if they want even money on both sides of a line. Thanks.
Posted on 11/4/15 at 3:00 pm to mattgr1983
I was agreeing with you. I know how line movement works.
I was replying to the guy that says Vegas always wants a balanced book. Not always true. Sometimes Vegas does pick a side.
When a line looks too good to be true, then moves in the opposite direction from where the money is pouring in....that's an example of the reverse line movement you mentioned and it means Vegas is picking a side. A good example of this happening was the Utah-USC game a few weeks ago
I was replying to the guy that says Vegas always wants a balanced book. Not always true. Sometimes Vegas does pick a side.
When a line looks too good to be true, then moves in the opposite direction from where the money is pouring in....that's an example of the reverse line movement you mentioned and it means Vegas is picking a side. A good example of this happening was the Utah-USC game a few weeks ago
Posted on 11/4/15 at 3:07 pm to New Boy
quote:
Vegas must know something....
That you're a titty
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