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Posted on 11/3/15 at 10:05 pm to New Boy
you people worry way too much about "vegas" and the refs
Posted on 11/3/15 at 10:13 pm to New Boy
I had to review your post history just to see if you were real. All you do is troll. Then in one post you talk about getting your kids from your ex...all t three of them under age five...complaining you can't afford tickets..then asking do they check for flasks....while you have your three young kids at game. What a loser.
Posted on 11/3/15 at 10:14 pm to New Boy
You literally have no idea how Vegas betting lines work.
Posted on 11/3/15 at 10:15 pm to bamasgot13
It is my opinion that most Vegas casinos are taking a side in this game. They like LSU to cover, but obviously that has nothing to do with who wins the game.
And you don't have to look any farther than last year to see how the closest of contests, arguably even decided by a single penalty flag, can still be decided by 7 points.
And 70% of bettors are on one side is just that, bettors.
Not money. This would tell me that the larger bettors are on the Bama side, and in this case, I think that's where Vegas wants them.
I don't see the line getting back to 7, if my intuition is correct. And Bama may well win the game, but Vegas thinks it will be closer than a TD in the end.
And you don't have to look any farther than last year to see how the closest of contests, arguably even decided by a single penalty flag, can still be decided by 7 points.
And 70% of bettors are on one side is just that, bettors.
Not money. This would tell me that the larger bettors are on the Bama side, and in this case, I think that's where Vegas wants them.
I don't see the line getting back to 7, if my intuition is correct. And Bama may well win the game, but Vegas thinks it will be closer than a TD in the end.
Posted on 11/3/15 at 10:17 pm to New Boy
Alabama barely ever covers, of course we want a win...but just like the playoff rankings...everything they do gets a little Bama bump.
The line of 7 is high. But it's still ONE play.
The line of 7 is high. But it's still ONE play.
This post was edited on 11/3/15 at 10:20 pm
Posted on 11/3/15 at 10:18 pm to New Boy
quote:
The line opened with the Tigers as 7 point dogs and it has not moved much at all.
Vegas must know something....
Vegas knows people are stupid. And you are proving them right.
Posted on 11/3/15 at 10:22 pm to Penrod
quote:
Penrod
quote:
Who is Vegas, and what does he know?
Posted on 11/3/15 at 10:34 pm to New Boy
Just means pretty even bets on both sides of the line so far. Doubt any of the big fish lay down the real cash till Friday or early Saturday before lines close.
Pay no attention, Vegas just drawing people in to steal their money.
All they really know is that one team will win, and one team will lose.
Pay no attention, Vegas just drawing people in to steal their money.
All they really know is that one team will win, and one team will lose.
Posted on 11/3/15 at 10:34 pm to wahoocs
quote:
They like LSU to cover, but obviously that has nothing to do with who wins the game.
It's hard to say at this point because they have enormous amounts of data on betting trends. If 70%+ of the money is on LSU at this point and they aren't moving the line, they either don't think LSU will cover or they're playing a game at this point.
A case in point was the AL-TN game, Bama lost against the spread but 70% of the money was on Bama, so Vegas "won".
My guess at this point is Vegas thinks Lacouture, White and Moore are out for the game and are letting the money pour in on LSU.
Posted on 11/3/15 at 10:38 pm to TheDuke5524
quote:
Pay no attention, Vegas just drawing people in to steal their money.
All they really know is that one team will win, and one team will lose.
This is the key to the betting universe.
Posted on 11/3/15 at 10:41 pm to New Boy
Although Vegas does set the lines so that they will split the betting money, there are people who bet a lot of money who are very knowledgeable about the teams who will burn the hell out of them late in the week if their line is significantly off of what the real result is likely to be. That will usually make the line move. If you don't see a major move in the line in the last day or so, then that means the so-called "smart money" agrees with the line and THAT means somebody knows something. If you do see a significant move (probably 2+ points or across a big number like 3 or 7), then that means the smart money is on whichever team in whose direction it moved.
This post was edited on 11/3/15 at 10:54 pm
Posted on 11/3/15 at 10:45 pm to Brageous
Understand that gambling lines for the most part reflect the general tenor of the wagering public. Little has to do with who is actually the better team but instead with who is perceived by those betting as the better team. Further, bookies in a perfect world want the same dollar amount bet on each side with respect to the line set so that they take the vig of ten percent and are guaranteed to come out ahead
Posted on 11/3/15 at 10:46 pm to New Boy
Posted on 11/3/15 at 10:49 pm to Nuts4LSU
quote:
If you don't see a major move in the line in the last day or so, then that means the so-called "smart money" agrees with the line and THAT means somebody knows something.
The Bama-UT line opened anywhere from 14 to 16, and mostly stayed there. Obviously the smart money was wrong on that one, and no doubt countless others this season.
Posted on 11/3/15 at 10:52 pm to ForeLSU
Don't remember the numbers, I'm far removed from playing them anymore, but an opening line of 7.5 for a home team that might be the most marketable one in all of college football that drops to 6.5 w the quickness, is begging for bets on the favorite.
I have long been a believer in Vegas rankings vs any other and they are high on LSU right now.
I have long been a believer in Vegas rankings vs any other and they are high on LSU right now.
Posted on 11/3/15 at 10:53 pm to wahoocs
quote:
And 70% of bettors are on one side is just that, bettors.
Not money
No. It's 70% (actually at 66% as of late this evening) of the public money that is on LSU. It's of the actual money.
Posted on 11/3/15 at 10:59 pm to OldManRiver
quote:
Obviously the smart money was wrong on that one, and no doubt countless others this season.
Of course, there's no money so smart as to never lose, so half of them lost on that game, and, as you point out, many others. But the smart money probably knows more than you or I do, and if they're split on whether Alabama covers 6.5 or 7, then it's safe to assume the vast majority of them think Alabama will win straight up. Of course, as you say, they are sometimes wrong. The last line I saw was Alabama -6.5. Historically, home teams favored by 6.5 points have won the game straight up about 74% of the time.
This post was edited on 11/3/15 at 11:01 pm
Posted on 11/3/15 at 11:03 pm to bamasgot13
Back when I used to track such things, actual money wasn't tracked to my knowledge.
But of course, the Internet was still a figment in Gore's imagination.
I do still recall the scars from games that were hard to figure when considering unexpected line movements or unusual lines that never moved, and the underdog was more often the play.
But of course, the Internet was still a figment in Gore's imagination.
I do still recall the scars from games that were hard to figure when considering unexpected line movements or unusual lines that never moved, and the underdog was more often the play.
Posted on 11/3/15 at 11:10 pm to wahoocs
Vegas had Georgia favored over bama too.
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