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re: This is what I think the final CFP poll will look like if LSU wins out.
Posted on 11/7/22 at 9:19 am to Hurricane2020
Posted on 11/7/22 at 9:19 am to Hurricane2020
Here's and interesting thought. What if Georgia were to forfeit the SEC CG?
No way they get left out, right? What would that do to LSU, without that signature win actually on the field? Do you think Kirby even considers it? Playing in the SEC CG undefeated and ranked #1 is only a risk for them.
I know it would never happen, but it's a fun scenario to think about.
No way they get left out, right? What would that do to LSU, without that signature win actually on the field? Do you think Kirby even considers it? Playing in the SEC CG undefeated and ranked #1 is only a risk for them.
I know it would never happen, but it's a fun scenario to think about.
This post was edited on 11/7/22 at 9:22 am
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Posted on 11/7/22 at 9:23 am to LNCHBOX
I think this is a worst case scenario for the committee. But I think they’d look at the SECCG as a defacto play in game and rank them (assuming TCU will lose)
1. Big 10 undefeated
2. Oregon one loss
3. Tennessee
4. LSU
5. Georgia
Yea I know Georgia beat them. But that was at home and Tennessee beat LSU worse than Georgia beat Tennessee. Yes, Georgia gets fricked in this scenario but leaving Tennessee out would be more fricked imo.
I do not think both Tennessee and UGA would be above LSU.
1. Big 10 undefeated
2. Oregon one loss
3. Tennessee
4. LSU
5. Georgia
Yea I know Georgia beat them. But that was at home and Tennessee beat LSU worse than Georgia beat Tennessee. Yes, Georgia gets fricked in this scenario but leaving Tennessee out would be more fricked imo.
I do not think both Tennessee and UGA would be above LSU.
Posted on 11/7/22 at 9:30 am to ShaneTheMaster
quote:
No way 1 loss Georgia is left out
I dont see how the committee could leave out 11-2 SEC Champ LSU over a 12-1 Georgia that just lost to LSU immediately prior to the selection show.
In reality 3 SEC teams would be deserving of being in the top 4 if it was 11-1 UT, 12-1 UGA and 11-2 SEC champ LSU and all would have a case. It'd be a hairy situation for sure.
Posted on 11/7/22 at 9:37 am to PhiTiger1764
Missouri may beat Tenn this week. I would def take the points.
They had UGA, Florida and Kentucky on the ropes the entire time and beat the snot out of South Carolina.
They had UGA, Florida and Kentucky on the ropes the entire time and beat the snot out of South Carolina.
Posted on 11/7/22 at 9:38 am to PhiTiger1764
quote:
Yea I know Georgia beat them. But that was at home and Tennessee beat LSU worse than Georgia beat Tennessee. Yes, Georgia gets fricked in this scenario but leaving Tennessee out would be more fricked imo.
There is no rationally way to justify leaving UGA out for Tennessee. Literally none.
quote:
1. Big 10 undefeated
2. Oregon one loss
3. Tennessee
4. LSU
5. Georgia
No fricking shot Tennessee moves up at least two spots over two conference teams while sitting at home. Where is the precedent for that?
Posted on 11/7/22 at 9:38 am to EasterEgg
Sounds like your dumbass stopped reading 2/3 the way through. Scenario 2, the one I said was the most likely scenario and is the final 1/3 or my post, specifically has TCU losing a game and being eliminated out of the conversation.
This post was edited on 11/7/22 at 9:40 am
Posted on 11/7/22 at 9:40 am to Tigersonfire
quote:
IF and I mean IF we were to somehow miraculously beat UGA.
Why is everyone acting like we don't have a well-coached team with one of the best players in the country at the most important position in Daniels? Saturday night was not the finished product. This team is getting better.
It's not going to take a miracle. LSU just has to play their game.
Posted on 11/7/22 at 9:42 am to VictoryHill
quote:
Why is everyone acting like we don't have a well-coached team with one of the best players in the country at the most important position in Daniels? Saturday night was not the finished product. This team is getting better.
It's not going to take a miracle. LSU just has to play their game.
Uh, did you just not watch what they did to Tennessee? Beating UGA will 100% take our best game of the year. And if UGA plays like they did Saturday, that may not even be enough. There's no shame in that btw, we are technically in a rebuilding year after all
Posted on 11/7/22 at 9:46 am to Hurricane2020
Committee may have to do some mental gymnastics this year in its justification. If LSU beats an undefeated UGA in the title game, I think all 3 of LSU, TN, and UGA absolutely deserve to be in by the "eyeball" test. HOWEVER, the committee always talks about the importance of conference championships.
Do they put in one-loss ACC champ Clemson? One-loss PAC-12 champ USC or Oregon, or (I'm assuming) a one-loss Big-12 champ TCU? I think any of the 3 SEC teams above would be double-digit favorites over all these teams. Committee just better be prepared for the crying from these cupcake conference champs.
Do they put in one-loss ACC champ Clemson? One-loss PAC-12 champ USC or Oregon, or (I'm assuming) a one-loss Big-12 champ TCU? I think any of the 3 SEC teams above would be double-digit favorites over all these teams. Committee just better be prepared for the crying from these cupcake conference champs.
Posted on 11/7/22 at 9:55 am to DJFord
Missouri might have the second best defense in the SEC, I could see Tennessee scruggling on offense and losing a late game vs them.
Posted on 11/7/22 at 10:04 am to LNCHBOX
quote:
Uh, did you just not watch what they did to Tennessee?
I did. And I think we are a better team than Tennessee at this very moment in time.
quote:
Beating UGA will 100% take our best game of the year.
As stated? We have one of the best players in the country with true freshmen at important positions who were just baptized in the fire. LSU plays their game it's going to be a dogfight.
quote:
And if UGA plays like they did Saturday, that may not even be enough. There's no shame in that btw, we are technically in a rebuilding year after all
I don't care about technicalities. LSU is a damn good football team that can beat UGA. Anything could happen. It wouldn't be miraculous.
Posted on 11/7/22 at 10:13 am to Hurricane2020
It’s shaping up to be a giant mess. The loss to FSU is holding us back. The rankings tomorrow will tell us a lot about how much this committee values “right now” performance versus overall results.
Theoretically, say we win out and there’s Georgia, Tennessee, OSU/Michigan, Oregon/USC, and TCU all sitting with one quality loss, it’s going to be tough for LSU to overcome all those teams for a spot. It’s not impossible, but it would be unprecedented in the playoff era.
Theoretically, say we win out and there’s Georgia, Tennessee, OSU/Michigan, Oregon/USC, and TCU all sitting with one quality loss, it’s going to be tough for LSU to overcome all those teams for a spot. It’s not impossible, but it would be unprecedented in the playoff era.
Posted on 11/7/22 at 10:14 am to Hurricane2020
Not reading all of that, but if we win out (including the SECCG), then we're in the playoffs.
Posted on 11/7/22 at 10:16 am to The Pirate King
quote:
The loss to FSU is holding us back. The rankings tomorrow will tell us a lot about how much this committee values “right now” performance versus overall results.
They already told you that by putting us at 10 last week.
quote:
t’s going to be tough for LSU to overcome all those teams for a spot.
SEC champ will never be left out (unless we turn into the PAC12 somehow).
Posted on 11/7/22 at 10:25 am to Hurricane2020
That makes me a lazy arse, not a dumbass 
Posted on 11/7/22 at 10:31 am to RockChalkTiger
quote:
Yeah, TCU is not winning out. That said, neither is LSU.
LSU wasn’t winning the West either two months ago
This post was edited on 11/7/22 at 10:32 am
Posted on 11/7/22 at 10:32 am to The Boat
quote:
LSU wasn’t winning the West either two months ago
We weren't winning an SEC game two months ago
This post was edited on 11/7/22 at 10:35 am
Posted on 11/7/22 at 10:34 am to LNCHBOX
Yeah to be accurate 2 months ago is exactly after the Florida State loss. LSU wasn’t going to a bowl game.
Posted on 11/7/22 at 10:46 am to Hurricane2020
I agree that if LSU beats UGA then LSU is in and UGA is out. That is essentially a de facto playoff game.
Posted on 11/7/22 at 11:01 am to Hurricane2020
Worst case scenario for an LSU team that wins out:
Michigan defeats Ohio St. in a close game. Michigan jumps to #2 and Ohio St. drops to #4 or #5, but stays ahead of LSU who does not get to move up based on its remaining regular season schedule, it needs TCU or Oregon to lose. Without those losses, then you could get:
LSU defeats #1 Georgia in SEC Championship, bumping Michigan to #1, undefeated TCU to #2, Georgia drops to #3, Ohio St. to #4 based on a close lose to the now #1 Michigan. A two loss LSU gets left on the doorstep as the Big 10 gets its miracle scenario to get two teams in the playoffs instead of the SEC getting two teams.
Thus, a one-loss Ohio St. team acts as a buffer to keep LSU out. A one-loss Michigan team would not cause the same problem for LSU.
All that being said, I do not see Michigan beating Ohio St., nor do I believe TCU continues to run the table. This late in the year, there always seems to be an injury to a key player that ends up flipping the script on one of the expected outcome games, so while fun to go through this “what if” scenario, it’s still too early to do so!
Michigan defeats Ohio St. in a close game. Michigan jumps to #2 and Ohio St. drops to #4 or #5, but stays ahead of LSU who does not get to move up based on its remaining regular season schedule, it needs TCU or Oregon to lose. Without those losses, then you could get:
LSU defeats #1 Georgia in SEC Championship, bumping Michigan to #1, undefeated TCU to #2, Georgia drops to #3, Ohio St. to #4 based on a close lose to the now #1 Michigan. A two loss LSU gets left on the doorstep as the Big 10 gets its miracle scenario to get two teams in the playoffs instead of the SEC getting two teams.
Thus, a one-loss Ohio St. team acts as a buffer to keep LSU out. A one-loss Michigan team would not cause the same problem for LSU.
All that being said, I do not see Michigan beating Ohio St., nor do I believe TCU continues to run the table. This late in the year, there always seems to be an injury to a key player that ends up flipping the script on one of the expected outcome games, so while fun to go through this “what if” scenario, it’s still too early to do so!
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