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1
Posted on 3/14/20 at 3:19 pm to memphis tiger
That’s the scariest part. This isn’t “benign” by any means, but it isn’t the plague either. Hell, if something serious came along everyone would be running around spreading the plague while they try to buy baby wipes. Ridiculous
Posted on 3/14/20 at 8:39 pm to dukke v
Family Medicine
Posted on 3/14/20 at 8:53 pm to Tigerbait357
You are right . They are going back to work in China so it is not bad . You will have to go to the China news papers to read about that. It will not be reported in the USA
Posted on 3/14/20 at 9:07 pm to VOR
quote:
Do you think the immunologists and physicians are in on the scam? My friend who teaches immunology at LSU Med School assures me this shite is real ( and dangerous) and one of the fastest spreading bugs he’s come across. He says the comparison go the flu is absurd.
Well, your friend is an idiot. Sorry to say but people with advanced degrees can still be gullible and lacking in understanding of the numbers that are coming out.
Posted on 3/14/20 at 9:35 pm to TKLSUMD
I appreciate the fact that you likely have patients at risk. And I appreciate that you are probably legitimately concerned.
However, the numbers you quote are not necessarily accurate. The mortality for flu is ~0.1%, based on estimates of the total number of cases.
The overall mortality rate for coronavirus of ~3.5% is based on number of confirmed cases. But we don’t really know the actual number of infected individuals. There hasn’t been sufficient testing. That number may be far greater than the confirmed numbers currently reported. If the current number is underestimated, then it would dramatically lower the true mortality rate.
So, the truth is that we don’t know yet.
Thus, there is need for caution rather than panic.
It’s probably a good idea to do what we can to minimize spread in order to prevent overwhelming the system and keep the mortality rates low. But I think it is a legitimate question as to whether these measures (cancelling season, etc.) actually will accomplish that. So I suppose my overall point is that people who question these actions are not crazy or stupid.
However, the numbers you quote are not necessarily accurate. The mortality for flu is ~0.1%, based on estimates of the total number of cases.
The overall mortality rate for coronavirus of ~3.5% is based on number of confirmed cases. But we don’t really know the actual number of infected individuals. There hasn’t been sufficient testing. That number may be far greater than the confirmed numbers currently reported. If the current number is underestimated, then it would dramatically lower the true mortality rate.
So, the truth is that we don’t know yet.
Thus, there is need for caution rather than panic.
It’s probably a good idea to do what we can to minimize spread in order to prevent overwhelming the system and keep the mortality rates low. But I think it is a legitimate question as to whether these measures (cancelling season, etc.) actually will accomplish that. So I suppose my overall point is that people who question these actions are not crazy or stupid.
Posted on 3/14/20 at 9:49 pm to taf
The measures being done are all along the same lines required in other countries who are further along the infection curves. An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure applies perfectly. Once the medical system in a country is overwhelmed with this infection, the number of deaths and the death rate goes up precipitously.
Posted on 3/14/20 at 9:53 pm to taf
quote:
Thus, there is need for caution rather than panic.
I haven’t seen anyone with any degree of authority on the subject call for panic
quote:
It’s probably a good idea to do what we can to minimize spread in order to prevent overwhelming the system and keep the mortality rates low. But I think it is a legitimate question as to whether these measures (cancelling season, etc.) actually will accomplish that. So I suppose my overall point is that people who question these actions are not crazy or stupid.
I mean it’s a contagion. Keeping people from gathering in tight areas with thousands of other people is exactly how you minimize the spread. There is no debating that.
You can debate whether or not you think it’s warranted but you can’t debate the effectiveness of quarantine. It’s a pretty tried and true method.
Posted on 3/14/20 at 9:57 pm to SCP
quote:
Once the medical system in a country is overwhelmed with this infection, the number of deaths and the death rate goes up precipitously.
That’s not even mentioning the deaths of people who aren’t infected. You have an overwhelmed medical system and all of a sudden a lot of collateral damage occurs. Heart attacks, strokes, accident and violent crime victims will start missing out on the level of care that otherwise would’ve been standard.
I’m as pissed as anyone about sports being shut down but The health of the country is more important.
Posted on 3/14/20 at 11:14 pm to CottonWasKing
quote:
You can debate whether or not you think it’s warranted but you can’t debate the effectiveness of quarantine. It’s a pretty tried and true method.
Fair enough.
But flu kills 10s of thousands of people every year. The CDC says there have been between 22,000-55,000 deaths from flu during this season alone (2019-2020) ( CDC Flu Burden Estimates). Quarantine would probably prevent many of them. But we don't. Should we?
Posted on 3/15/20 at 12:59 am to taf
quote:
But flu kills 10s of thousands of people every year. The CDC says there have been between 22,000-55,000 deaths from flu during this season alone (2019-2020) ( CDC Flu Burden Estimates). Quarantine would probably prevent many of them. But we don't. Should we?
Those flu deaths probably from elderly people who did not get flu vaccine and had other health complications. No need to quarantine flu patients if you get flu vaccine annually. COVID-19 or coronavirus infection, on the other hand, has no vaccine available. Its method of transmission is still unknown so the only way to control the spread of the COVID-19 infection is through quarantine and crowd control.
Even though there is no need to quarantine flu patients en masse but I am sure that if you got flu and come to work, your boss would send you home to prevent it spread to other people at work and that is a mini or short-term form of quarantine on an individual basis.
This post was edited on 3/15/20 at 1:37 am
Posted on 3/15/20 at 1:00 am to DTig
quote:
Those flu deaths probably from people who did not get flu vaccine.
The flu shot to s marginal effective.
Posted on 3/15/20 at 1:06 am to RogerTheShrubber
quote:
The flu shot to s marginal effective
Each year the CDC collects flu virus strains to make flu vaccine for next year. Even though they are "maginal effective" they are still a better defense against the flu virus than nothing like in the case of COVID-19 virus.
Posted on 3/15/20 at 1:07 am to Pelican fan99
quote:
No
Yes.
Your dumb arse can “laugh” it off all you want but the math does not lie. The way this virus spreads, all models pointed to at least half the population of the United States would be infected if nothing was done. The population of the United States is 350 million people. The mortality rate of this virus IS 1-3%. 1-3% of 175million people IS OVER A MILLION PEOPLE.
Posted on 3/15/20 at 1:14 am to rbdallas
quote:
but, don't you be naive to think that they are not many doing this to tank the economy and use for political reasons as well.
How? Explain the exact steps on how any party could be using this to “tank the economy” when the economy is not dependent on either party. The economy tanked because of the virus spreading in China where many of the goods we buy are made. Fears of the supply chain being broken for these goods tanked the economy.
Posted on 3/15/20 at 4:08 am to J2thaROC
Saying the economy is free and unbiased of politics is just naive or dishonest.
This post was edited on 3/15/20 at 4:10 am
Posted on 3/15/20 at 6:17 am to TKLSUMD
quote:
The death rate for COVID-19 is currently around 3.5% in the United States and 6.5% in Italy
No it’s not. I’m 100% certain that it’s less than 2%, and I’m fairly certain that it’s less than 1%, And the scientific consensus is much closer to my low estimate than it is to yours. These 3.5% and 4% estimates are based on the denominator only including cases they know about. In the low testing environment that we have that is 3rd grader statistical sampling.
In South Korea, if we assume every single critical case ends in death the death rate would be 1.6%. More likely it will end up at about 1.1%. And here’s the catch: Almost half the people who have it are asymptomatic. That means they are not included in the denominator, because they don’t even have sniffles. South Korea’s actual fatality rate, once statistical adjustments are made, will be about 0.6%.
This post was edited on 3/15/20 at 6:26 am
Posted on 3/15/20 at 6:37 am to Penrod
No doubt the fatality rate will decrease as it’s pretty much impossible to do testing unless you’re critically ill at this point. But do you really think the influenza fatality rate is 0.1%? It too is lower than reported as many are never diagnosed. Many times I see patients who have influenza which I never do a test on and are not counted in that number. . My point is that COVID-19 is much more deadly than influenza. This is not up for debate.
Posted on 3/15/20 at 6:47 am to J2thaROC
quote:
The mortality rate of this virus IS 1-3%. 1-3% of 175million people IS OVER A MILLION PEOPLE.
Sorry man, but both of your assumptions are wrong. First, no one reputable thinks 175 million Americans could get infected. Those numbers were irresponsibly released to the media, which of course runs with them because it sells ads. They have computer models in which they can adjust a few variables, like transmission rate. They put a wide range of values in those variables, and the one that yields the highest rate gets reported. That’s not even plausible. The Spanish flu only infected 27%. This will almost certainly be less.
Next, the fatality rate will end up far less than 1% in America. I’m not explaining this again. If you’re interested see my post above. Reasonable guesses might be 0.75% fatality and 20% infected. That yields 610,000 deaths. Still significant, but less than a million.
Posted on 3/15/20 at 6:54 am to J2thaROC
quote:
Fears of the supply chain being broken for these goods tanked the economy.
Nope. This is somewhat true for the stock market, but not for the economy.
The theory you are arguing against, and which you asked to be explained, is as follows: Democrats saw the opportunity to tank the economy, giving them a chance to win in November. Being thoroughly evil, they seized the opportunity, instructing mayors and governors across America to shut down all large events like concerts, sports, conventions, etc. This undeniably results in a huge diminution of economic activity, which would have been multiplied, as is classically understood in economics.
I am not an adherent to this theory, but there it is, since you were skeptical it existed.
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