re: This Arkansas spread has me worried. It is not moving like it should

anyone thats watch CFB for more than a few years should be worried.

classic shiny hook.

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Explain how the spread not being favorable for LSU affects our players’ ability to win the game

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It doesn't. But the OP is perpetually in a state of concern about something...no matter how irrational.

Arkansas opened as a strong favorite last week. The line moved further in their favor by kickoff. I guess someone forgot to tell Liberty them becoming a larger underdog throughout the week was an ominous sign

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The spread moves during the week to ensure even money on both sides. The only thing Vegas/bookies want is to make money on the 10% juice from the losers.

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This not categorical. This is a huge misconception. The scenario you are describing would actually result in Vegas never getting paid. If they have equal money on both sides and it hits on the number they do not get paid. There are plenty of times when the action is one sided and Vegas does not move the line. Their goal is to maximize value, not to guarantee equal action on both sides.

Movement of a line also depends largely on the number. For example, is much easier to move a line from 5-6.5 than it is to move a line off 3, i.e., it takes way more action.

Division game early kickoff on the road coming off Bama. It has all the markings of a closer-ish game.

ETA: add cold weather

This year’s team is prepared mentally and physically different. I believe LSU will win by 14 or more. The team has proven Vegas wrong many times. I believe in the BK Method.

I'm not a degenerate gambler, but you only have to look back to last week and the Georgia line versus Tennessee. It was enticing money to be bet on Tennessee. And it didn't really move. And then late Friday night and early Saturday morning the sharp money started rolling in on Georgia.

Who knows why lines are set the way they are in certain games.

I expect Kelly to have the team focused on one play at a time, every play, til the end of the game.

LSU has storyline as old as time of being an underdog, beating a highly ranked team, then losing to a team they shouldn’t have lost to the next game.

I don’t think Brian Kelly will have this team fall like that though. They’ll be ready.

An SEC home underdog coming off a loss to a team they shouldn't have lost to and an SEC road favorite coming off one of the most emotional wins in the program's recent history.

On paper, Arkansas will be motivated and focused as not to be embarrassed at home and LSU (on paper) would be emotionally hung over and overconfident.

I'm biased, but if this was any other team, I'd take Arkansas and the points in a heartbeat.

Agree, this line makes me extremely worried

Typical trap game spread. Odds makers/computer models don’t take the intangibles this specific team has into account. Heart, hustle, grit, etc.