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Started By
Message
1
Posted on 11/2/18 at 11:41 am to GumboPot
quote:
I bet the money is evenly split on both sides. If not Vegas goes out of business.
Posted on 11/2/18 at 11:42 am to Powerman
They don’t really. They go with money. And if insane money was going on LSU it would drop. The media drives attention, and when the public hears over and over how unstoppable Alabama is they put money on Bama.
Posted on 11/2/18 at 11:42 am to loopback
Vegas has not been on target with LSU for most of the year.....why worry about Vegas now?
Posted on 11/2/18 at 11:42 am to KiwiHead
quote:
same Vegas that had Purdue getting steamrolled by tOSU a few weeks ago
The line for that game was 12
Posted on 11/2/18 at 11:42 am to loopback
If the spread is that big and is potentially moving bigger, Vegas will be pulling for LSU.
Posted on 11/2/18 at 11:43 am to loopback
Me thinks you don't understand how Vegas works. They're not telling you what they actually think the final score will be. They're setting a line that they think will get 50% to bet LSU and 50% to bet Bama. Then they win because they take a cut of every bettors money. John Q Public is loading up on Bama because they're usually an easy cover so Vegas has to inflate the point spread.
If Vegas sets a point spread that has every bettor on one side and the bettors are right, then Vegas loses their shirt.....sooo, Vegas tries for the 50/50 split.
No more, no less.
Now you know why the line is what it is.
If Vegas sets a point spread that has every bettor on one side and the bettors are right, then Vegas loses their shirt.....sooo, Vegas tries for the 50/50 split.
No more, no less.
Now you know why the line is what it is.
Posted on 11/2/18 at 11:43 am to loopback
14 points is not that big of a stretch. LSU was beaten by 14 points last year. Maybe LSU is better this year, but so is Bama. Other than an LSU fan that is hoping and praying, no logical person would bet on LSU to win or stay neck and neck. A two score difference would be a somewhat competitive game. Could LSU win or keep it close? Sure, but would you bet a lot of money on that?
Posted on 11/2/18 at 11:44 am to loopback
quote:I wouldn't bet on this.
Bama will be overconfident
quote:I wouldn't bet on this.
Officials will have to hold back
Posted on 11/2/18 at 11:44 am to 225bred
quote:
225bred
Go back to the poli board.
Posted on 11/2/18 at 11:45 am to loopback
This Tua’s drive chart. Yellow is TD, blue it FG, and white is punt/TO. Do you realize how insane this is? This does not mean we are going to lose, but damn they score a TD on 65% of their drives up to this point. It doesn’t take a genius to see why they are favored by so much. No one except for people wearing P&G glasses expects us to win.
This post was edited on 11/2/18 at 11:52 am
Posted on 11/2/18 at 11:45 am to loopback
Vegas doesn't try to predict winners. They try to predict the point spread that will yield ZERO risk to them. So the winners and losers bet exactly the same amount. Then Vegas makes their money from the 10% betting fee.
Doesn't always come out even. Right now (at a 14.5 point spread), 52% of the public betting money is on Alabama - 48% on LSU.
LINK
Doesn't always come out even. Right now (at a 14.5 point spread), 52% of the public betting money is on Alabama - 48% on LSU.
LINK
Posted on 11/2/18 at 11:46 am to TigerBlood17
They haven't played anyone with a pulse. There are other teams that could replicate that against the same competition.
Posted on 11/2/18 at 11:47 am to loopback
quote:
Does Vegas know something we don't?
Vegas objectivity knows public betting sentiment. Sometimes betting sentiment correlates well with CFB stats sometimes not. But the line correlates with betting sentiment with an R value of almost 1.
Posted on 11/2/18 at 11:47 am to loopback
quote:Surely your talking about previous LSU teams, not this Bama team right?
-This LSU team has MUCH better QB play
-This LSU team is MUCH better coached
Also:
Miami (-4)
Auburn (-11)
Georgia (-8.5)
Posted on 11/2/18 at 11:48 am to Rouge
quote:
Even moreso as the season goes along and they acquire more information
So do we.
You're an idiot. But we knew this a long time ago.
Posted on 11/2/18 at 11:48 am to Guava Jelly
Yep, the media has been used to force perceptions. They need folks to diss us and take Bama to even out the money. Enough folks see a potential upset or at least LSU covering but even slightly more see Bama has invincible or the notion is re-enforced through perception and media manipulation. It worked for them in our Aubie and UGA games, no reason why it won't enable them to make a killing with this one:).
Posted on 11/2/18 at 11:49 am to Solo Cam
I'm talking about the 2018 Tigers. They are better in both coaching and QB play than years past
Posted on 11/2/18 at 11:50 am to loopback
You might see some downward movement tomorrow before kickoff. I think you will have late money come in on LSU. Nonetheless, the lines are made by public perception. The overwhelming public perception is that Bama steamrolls LSU like they have everyone else. LSU hasn't gotten respect all year. That's fine by me because the team plays a hell of a lot better when they have a chip on their shoulder. Any shark that has seen LSU at its best this year will be dumping late money on LSU on anything over +10.
Posted on 11/2/18 at 11:50 am to loopback
quote:The odds are against LSU winning. It's 65-75% chance Bama wins. That's just fact. People here are over-confident. Of course 25-35% chance stuff actually comes to pass all the time. But make no mistake - LSU is rightfully an underdog, and it is unlikely that they win. That will make a win all the more sweet.
The one thing about this game that concerns me: Vegas
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