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Started By
Message
re: The Odds for Baseball
Posted on 5/24/15 at 11:30 am to Jay Quest
Posted on 5/24/15 at 11:30 am to Jay Quest
quote:
If you think our pitching is suspect then I'm guessing you are one of those posters that only start to pay attention to baseball in the post season.
I have season tickets. I go to nearly every game. So, you guessed wrong.
4
Posted on 5/24/15 at 11:37 am to MidCityTiger
It is so difficult to win the CWS. It takes a lot of luck and mistakes from the other team as well as talent. I'm hopefully that it all comes together for us.
Posted on 5/24/15 at 11:39 am to MidCityTiger
As a season ticket holder who goes to every game, you should know that the math that goes into determining probablility of victory is more complex than what you posted.
Money ball isn't based on some guy saying "I think the odds are 75 percent."
Money ball isn't based on some guy saying "I think the odds are 75 percent."
Posted on 5/24/15 at 11:41 am to MidCityTiger
Doesn't excuse you from being a total fricking idiot..
Posted on 5/24/15 at 11:47 am to TigerBait2008
10% Luck, 20% Skill, 15% Concentrated Power of Will, 5% Pleasure, 50% Pain, and 100% Reason to Remember the Name.
I did the math, dont worry I double checked it.
I did the math, dont worry I double checked it.
Posted on 5/24/15 at 12:28 pm to MidCityTiger
Saying LSU has a 25% chance of winning in an 8 team field of what amounts to the nation's hottest teams is where I think the flaw in your calculations is apparent. Everyone has an equal shot in Omaha. Everyone.
Posted on 5/24/15 at 12:28 pm to MidCityTiger
Then you would know LSU is 48-10 this year as a team. 83% winning percentage vs the Best Conference in the Nation.
4 of those losses coming in extra innings.
Everyone looks to our bullpen just to Florida and says it let us down. How about our Bullpen vs Auburn and Arkansas in the SECT? I think it was like 14.2 IP and only giving up 4 runs? 3 were by Godfrey I believe.
4 of those losses coming in extra innings.
Everyone looks to our bullpen just to Florida and says it let us down. How about our Bullpen vs Auburn and Arkansas in the SECT? I think it was like 14.2 IP and only giving up 4 runs? 3 were by Godfrey I believe.
Posted on 5/24/15 at 12:37 pm to Mickey Goldmill
quote:
We allowed 2 runs yesterday to an Omaha caliber team. We had the #1 ERA in the SEC this season. Our pitching is no more "suspect" than any other team in the country.
Thank you! Yesterday just wasn't our day for hitting or base running. Just happened to be the single elimination round. It happens, now on to Omaha!
Posted on 5/24/15 at 12:53 pm to MidCityTiger
Watched UCLA last night, reputed as one of the best pitching staffs in the nation.
One of their better mid relievers came in with a 3-1 lead and one on, gave up a double and a three run HR.
Later after UCLA tied it and went to extras, their bullpen in the 11th hit 2 batters, walked the next and then gave up a walk off single.
Earlier in the year, Berg, the best closer in the nation blew a save in the 13th inning.
Pitching suspect...Welcome to College Baseball
As to your odds, I'll take Rabbits, they're more accurate
One of their better mid relievers came in with a 3-1 lead and one on, gave up a double and a three run HR.
Later after UCLA tied it and went to extras, their bullpen in the 11th hit 2 batters, walked the next and then gave up a walk off single.
Earlier in the year, Berg, the best closer in the nation blew a save in the 13th inning.
Pitching suspect...Welcome to College Baseball
As to your odds, I'll take Rabbits, they're more accurate
Posted on 5/24/15 at 4:45 pm to tigger42day
quote:
Therefore, based on the subjective estimations that were made, the chances of LSU both getting to and winning the CWS are approximately 17%.
I find this analysis very interesting. Not everyone likes, or is good at, math. So, some don't appreciate it.
But, I do. Would it make sense to add our history in post-season to your analysis? We have had a number of very good teams get to post-season play. We won it all once, and lost others. The players change, but One factor remains the same. The coach. That is a constant.
I would be interested in your assessment of that.
Posted on 5/24/15 at 4:51 pm to Asllan
quote:
But, I do. Would it make sense to add our history in post-season to your analysis? We have had a number of very good teams get to post-season play. We won it all once, and lost others. The players change, but One factor remains the same. The coach. That is a constant. I would be interested in your assessment of that.
doubt this guy knows hows to run or knows what a Bayesian analysis is so I'm going to have to say no
Posted on 5/24/15 at 5:14 pm to MidCityTiger
And please tell us exactly how you came up with the 90% and 75% figures, short of pulling them out your arse. I'm thinking at this point in time, your "subjective judgements" mean nothing.
Posted on 5/24/15 at 5:15 pm to MidCityTiger
...why bother to even go ? Better than 5 - 1 chance you lose ... 
Posted on 5/24/15 at 9:00 pm to Tigersport2014
The average statistician is just plain mean
Posted on 5/24/15 at 9:58 pm to MidCityTiger
Winning the regional and winning the super regional are not independent events... Therefore simply multiplying your probabilities (which are merely subjective anyways) is wrong.
Posted on 5/24/15 at 10:38 pm to PythagoreanTiger
78.3% of all statistics are made up on the spot.
Posted on 5/24/15 at 10:58 pm to MidCityTiger
Based on the last week, I'd say making a Super Regional would be a successful season.
Two starters get shelled against sub-par competition. Our one ace holds an Omaha-caliber team scoreless, only to see our bats falter against Johnny Allstaff, and our arson squad bullpen come in and (yet again) blow a save and the game.
We will win our Regional. We will be lucky to get to Omaha, especially if matched up against Houston again. This team will NOT win a NC at CenturyLink, even with the new balls.
Two starters get shelled against sub-par competition. Our one ace holds an Omaha-caliber team scoreless, only to see our bats falter against Johnny Allstaff, and our arson squad bullpen come in and (yet again) blow a save and the game.
We will win our Regional. We will be lucky to get to Omaha, especially if matched up against Houston again. This team will NOT win a NC at CenturyLink, even with the new balls.
Posted on 5/24/15 at 11:25 pm to RockChalkTiger
quote:
Based on the last week, I'd say making a Super Regional would be a successful season.
quote:
We will win our Regional.
What? If we will win our regional like you suggest, then how is simply making a super a successful season. Where do you people come from? We won't face a team like Florida in a super. Although the pitching is a concern, I'm confident that Lange can get us a win. Between Poche, Bain and the rest of the staff, we should be able to win a second game against an inferior team.
Posted on 5/25/15 at 2:25 am to SpookeyTiger
We allowed 2 runs yesterday to an Omaha caliber team. We had the #1 ERA in the SEC this season. Our pitching is no more "suspect" than any other team in the country.
Thank you! Yesterday just wasn't our day for hitting or base running. Just happened to be the single elimination round. It happens, now on to Omaha!
Let's talk about expectations because it is so important setting expectations with LSU fans, especially younger ones. I think some of our fans will be upset if we don't win the National Championship. Well the chances are against us to win the National Championship. We will likely be favored to win the National Championship, but that only means we will have more than a 12.5% chance. And about pitching, having two stud starters with a strong closer as well as situational lefties and righties is usually a good formula to win in Omaha. Do we have two stud starters? Maybey, we are young there and might be a year away. We don't have a closer. As far as situational lefties, another question mark...
Thank you! Yesterday just wasn't our day for hitting or base running. Just happened to be the single elimination round. It happens, now on to Omaha!
Let's talk about expectations because it is so important setting expectations with LSU fans, especially younger ones. I think some of our fans will be upset if we don't win the National Championship. Well the chances are against us to win the National Championship. We will likely be favored to win the National Championship, but that only means we will have more than a 12.5% chance. And about pitching, having two stud starters with a strong closer as well as situational lefties and righties is usually a good formula to win in Omaha. Do we have two stud starters? Maybey, we are young there and might be a year away. We don't have a closer. As far as situational lefties, another question mark...
Posted on 5/25/15 at 6:51 am to TigerBait2008
I agree. What kind of fricking logic is that. Please tell me he is not an LSU graduate.
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