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Started By
Message
The Odds for Baseball
Posted on 5/24/15 at 10:58 am
Posted on 5/24/15 at 10:58 am
Here are the odds - based on my subjective judgments - for baseball advancing to the CWS and then winning it:
First, I give LSU a 90% chance of winning its regional. They will be the better than the competition and almost always win it.
I give LSU a 75% chance of winning its Super Regional because the competition is stronger and our pitching is suspect.
Probability statistics: .90 times .75 = .675
Therefore, based on these estimations, LSU has a 67.5% chance of advancing to Omaha.
Once we get to Omaha, we are on even footing with most of teams, again, especially because of our suspect pitching. However, let's say we have a slight edge. Instead of a 12.5% chance of winning it, if every team were considered equal, I am doubling that for LSU and giving the team a 25% chance of winning the National Title.
Probability statistics: .675 times .25 = .169
Therefore, based on the subjective estimations that were made, the chances of LSU both getting to and winning the CWS are approximately 17%.
First, I give LSU a 90% chance of winning its regional. They will be the better than the competition and almost always win it.
I give LSU a 75% chance of winning its Super Regional because the competition is stronger and our pitching is suspect.
Probability statistics: .90 times .75 = .675
Therefore, based on these estimations, LSU has a 67.5% chance of advancing to Omaha.
Once we get to Omaha, we are on even footing with most of teams, again, especially because of our suspect pitching. However, let's say we have a slight edge. Instead of a 12.5% chance of winning it, if every team were considered equal, I am doubling that for LSU and giving the team a 25% chance of winning the National Title.
Probability statistics: .675 times .25 = .169
Therefore, based on the subjective estimations that were made, the chances of LSU both getting to and winning the CWS are approximately 17%.
This post was edited on 5/24/15 at 11:27 am
16
Posted on 5/24/15 at 11:00 am to MidCityTiger
Now I'm going to need these exact figures for all top 8 seeded teams please. Snap snap.
This post was edited on 5/24/15 at 11:05 am
Posted on 5/24/15 at 11:00 am to MidCityTiger
Posted on 5/24/15 at 11:05 am to MidCityTiger
We allowed 2 runs yesterday to an Omaha caliber team. We had the #1 ERA in the SEC this season. Our pitching is no more "suspect" than any other team in the country.
Posted on 5/24/15 at 11:05 am to MidCityTiger
There's an 88.3% probability I don't believe a word you wrote.
Posted on 5/24/15 at 11:11 am to liquid rabbit
We've lost 1 series all year long against the best conference. I'd go higher than 75% in supers. I figure there is a 75-80% we get to omaha
Posted on 5/24/15 at 11:11 am to MidCityTiger
How can you just multiply the two? Shouldn't there be other variables?
Posted on 5/24/15 at 11:12 am to liquid rabbit
Posted on 5/24/15 at 11:15 am to MidCityTiger
What a stupid fricking post...lol
Posted on 5/24/15 at 11:16 am to Mickey Goldmill
By suspect he means inconsistent. Like Poche Wednesday or Bain Thursday. Either one of those guys can come out and dominate a game but both have had games that they were pulled before the 3rd inning. Can't have that happening anymore
Posted on 5/24/15 at 11:17 am to MidCityTiger
quote:
First, I give LSU a 90% chance of winning its regional
Interesting given we have no clue who is in the regional.
Posted on 5/24/15 at 11:18 am to MidCityTiger
I like how you pulled these numbers out of your arse
Posted on 5/24/15 at 11:18 am to Tigerfan_95
he multiplied them because that is how you calculate the probability of two things happening
Posted on 5/24/15 at 11:19 am to MidCityTiger
How do you give LSU any statistics on a Regional where the 3 other teams haven't been decided?
Same thing for Super Regionals?
If you think our pitching is suspect then I'm guessing you are one of those posters that only start to pay attention to baseball in the post season.
Posters are putting too much emphasis on one game(that in the grand scheme of things didn't matter too much for LSU) vs one of the top teams in the country. You act like they mercy ruled us. We lost 2-1 in the 9th inning. Damn some people.
Same thing for Super Regionals?
If you think our pitching is suspect then I'm guessing you are one of those posters that only start to pay attention to baseball in the post season.
Posters are putting too much emphasis on one game(that in the grand scheme of things didn't matter too much for LSU) vs one of the top teams in the country. You act like they mercy ruled us. We lost 2-1 in the 9th inning. Damn some people.
This post was edited on 5/24/15 at 11:23 am
Posted on 5/24/15 at 11:19 am to Tigerfan_95
quote:
By suspect he means inconsistent. Like Poche Wednesday or Bain Thursday. Either one of those guys can come out and dominate a game but both have had games that they were pulled before the 3rd inning. Can't have that happening anymore
There are no teams in the country where the exact same thing can't be said to be a possibility. The best pitchers have off games.
Posted on 5/24/15 at 11:20 am to MidCityTiger
So you arbitrarily choose odds of success as the basis for your "mathematical" argument?
That's not how it works, homey.
That's not how it works, homey.
Posted on 5/24/15 at 11:21 am to Mickey Goldmill
Exactly.
Did they see Carson Fulmer pitch in this tournament? He was SEC Pitcher of the Year. Gave up like 6 earned runs and got shelled.
Did they see Andrew Benintendi hit in this tournament? He was SEC Hitter of the Year. I think he had 1 or 2 hits in 4 games.
Did they see Carson Fulmer pitch in this tournament? He was SEC Pitcher of the Year. Gave up like 6 earned runs and got shelled.
Did they see Andrew Benintendi hit in this tournament? He was SEC Hitter of the Year. I think he had 1 or 2 hits in 4 games.
Posted on 5/24/15 at 11:23 am to BallChamp00
quote:
How can you just multiply the two? Shouldn't there be other variables?
no really
:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:Posted on 5/24/15 at 11:24 am to Mickey Goldmill
quote:
The best pitchers have off games.
Yep. I don't believe Vandy's coaches are losing sleep over Carson Fulmer's next start given the results of the last game he pitched. They know what he brings to the mound regardless of that one bad outing.
Posted on 5/24/15 at 11:25 am to Jay Quest
as a statistician I shake my head in shame 
This post was edited on 5/24/15 at 11:26 am
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