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The Kentucky problem
Posted on 11/4/26 at 9:34 am
Posted on 11/4/26 at 9:34 am
First off, if LSU wins out then they’re in the playoff.
But Kentucky will act as LSU’s ceiling starting this week. If Kentucky loses to Tennessee this weekend, then that is going to cap how high LSU can rise in the rankings even after beating number 5 Alabama. If Kentucky gets a 3rd loss somewhere, then that probably eliminates LSU’s chance at getting in as a 3 loss team. I know Kentucky winning out probably eliminates our chances at the SEC title game. But a 1 loss Kentucky is the best thing for LSU’s playoff chances and seeding.
But Kentucky will act as LSU’s ceiling starting this week. If Kentucky loses to Tennessee this weekend, then that is going to cap how high LSU can rise in the rankings even after beating number 5 Alabama. If Kentucky gets a 3rd loss somewhere, then that probably eliminates LSU’s chance at getting in as a 3 loss team. I know Kentucky winning out probably eliminates our chances at the SEC title game. But a 1 loss Kentucky is the best thing for LSU’s playoff chances and seeding.
Posted on 11/4/26 at 9:41 am to tigereye1988
And to think. 1 yard is all that's between us, the #4 ranking, and a near guaranteed playoff berth.
Posted on 11/4/26 at 9:43 am to tigereye1988
Maybe. If LSU wins out, they'll have beaten 2 top 10 teams an 1 top 15 team. I don't see us winning out. But still.
Posted on 11/4/26 at 9:46 am to tigereye1988
quote:
If Kentucky loses to Tennessee this weekend, then that is going to cap how high LSU can rise in the rankings even after beating number 5 Alabama
Not at all. If we beat Bama, especially in a dominant fashion, we will move up a lot regardless of what happens to Kentucky.
Kentucky is also a +6.5 underdog this weekend, they are expected to lose anyway.
Posted on 11/4/26 at 9:48 am to FireGoodell
National media starting to try to jump on bandwagon with how we have been more consistent
Posted on 11/4/26 at 9:51 am to FireGoodell
I hope you’re right, but I disagree. LSU will get compared directly with Kentucky and I think Kentucky will get the nod having the head to head win. The committee just showed us that by ranking Alabama over Kentucky even with having 2 losses.
Posted on 11/4/26 at 9:52 am to tigereye1988
Forget the 4th and 1 call. The Kentucky game should not have even been close.
I still don’t understand how LSU lost that game.
I still don’t understand how LSU lost that game.
Posted on 11/4/26 at 9:53 am to tigereye1988
LSU is +750 to win the CFP and Kentucky is +6000, the people that matter know who is the more dangerous team.
Posted on 11/4/26 at 9:54 am to tigereye1988
quote:
But Kentucky will act as LSU’s ceiling starting this week. If Kentucky loses to Tennessee this weekend, then that is going to cap how high LSU can rise in the rankings even after beating number 5 Alabama.
Maybe for the next poll, but not for the season on the whole. The committee showed you last night that fewer losses is not necessarily a disqualifying criteria. Case in point, Alabama at 5 and Tennessee at 13...despite both having 2 losses and Tennessee beating Alabama by 16 points.
If Kentucky loses to Tenn, then looking ahead, LSU has slightly more opportunity for "good wins" than Kentucky who will play Florida, @ Mizzou, Louisville. Hell, it could come down to who has a better record, Clemson or Louisville. Ultimately a 2 loss UK could be ranked ahead of a 2 loss LSU simply because of a head to head tiebreaker. But it doesn't appear to be set in stone that a 2 loss LSU could not be ranked ahead of a 2 loss Kentucky. (See also USC being ranked 8 spots behind Ohio St)
Posted on 11/4/26 at 9:54 am to FireGoodell
I love this board 
Now we have a shot at beating bama in “dominating fashion”
No chance, there are two outcomes here: usual bama domination or lsu squeaks by. That’s it
Now we have a shot at beating bama in “dominating fashion”
No chance, there are two outcomes here: usual bama domination or lsu squeaks by. That’s it
Posted on 11/4/26 at 9:56 am to tigereye1988
Kentucky isn’t beating Tennessee.
Missouri on the road is probably another loss .
Louisville will be another potential loss
Missouri on the road is probably another loss .
Louisville will be another potential loss
Posted on 11/4/26 at 9:58 am to Paul Allen
quote:
I still don’t understand how LSU lost that game.
A punt return TD and the Baker "end of half/game" prevent defense
Baker allowed both Ole Miss and Kentucky to go on long TD drives at the end of the first half, then a score on each team's final drive of the 4th quarter when the game was tied (Ole Miss) or LSU had the lead (Kentucky).
Posted on 11/4/26 at 9:59 am to tigereye1988
I don't know if this will hold... the committee put Bama 8 spots higher than a team that beat them convincedly.
Posted on 11/4/26 at 9:59 am to tigereye1988
You’re assuming the CFP follows any sort of rules or metrics.
Example - Tenn and Alabama are both 6-2. Tenn beat Bama.
CFP
Alabama 5
Tenn 13
Example - Tenn and Alabama are both 6-2. Tenn beat Bama.
CFP
Alabama 5
Tenn 13
Posted on 11/4/26 at 10:00 am to tigereye1988
You are overthinking this. If both are 9-3 LSU will get in because we are LSU. Yeah I said that.
Posted on 11/4/26 at 10:02 am to nmh3303
quote:
And to think. 1 Baker is all that's between us, the #4 ranking, and a near guaranteed playoff berth.
FIFY
Posted on 11/4/26 at 10:02 am to TheWalrus
The odds makers don’t matter at all. The selection committee are the people that matter.
Posted on 11/4/26 at 10:06 am to TheDeathValley
Alabama being over Tennessee is a good point. But hearing how the committee puts teams in pods, has me thinking we will always be compared directly with Kentucky.
LSU just needs to win out and not leave anything up to this inconsistent committee.
LSU just needs to win out and not leave anything up to this inconsistent committee.
Posted on 11/4/26 at 10:07 am to tigereye1988
quote:How do you reconcile the committee ranking Alabama 8 spots ahead of Tennessee who whipped Bama's arse?
The committee just showed us that by ranking Alabama over Kentucky even with having 2 losses.
Posted on 11/4/26 at 10:09 am to GulfSouthTiger
You can’t. It’s like they pick and choose when and how to apply certain criteria.
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