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Message
Some FB Stuff
Posted on 6/4/25 at 11:19 pm
Posted on 6/4/25 at 11:19 pm
Per our FPI ESPN calculates our wins at 7.9 with a 30% probability of making the playoffs.
11
Posted on 6/4/25 at 11:36 pm to ShockG082
ESPN's FPI is literally just made up nonsense. It's consistently wrong about everything. If it said we had a 100% chance of winning it all, I would be very concerned.
Posted on 6/5/25 at 12:09 am to ShockG082
quote:
ESPN
Posted on 6/5/25 at 12:17 am to OlDirtyTiger7
no you wouldn't
Posted on 6/5/25 at 4:47 am to ShockG082
quote:
Per our FPI ESPN calculates our wins at 7.9 with a 30% probability of making the playoffs.
That’s spot on, ESPN got it right for once
Posted on 6/5/25 at 5:20 am to ShockG082
Feldman was on the Russillo pod recently, they mentioned that at the end of last season, ESPN's FPI had Alabama at #4.
Posted on 6/5/25 at 5:21 am to ShockG082
That sounds about Brian Kelly
Posted on 6/5/25 at 6:15 am to OlDirtyTiger7
quote:
ESPN's FPI is literally just made up nonsense. It's consistently wrong about everything
Didn’t the “fpi” have the LSU Tigers #2 even after beating Clemson in the championship game?
If I do remember correctly, I think that we should take espn and their fpi for what it is….internet trash.
Posted on 6/5/25 at 7:00 am to ShockG082
FPI ESPN apparently doesn’t do any kind of research or scouting on a current team. They just throw numbers out there according to what you’ve done previously. Who cares how much better you’ve gotten at practically every position with better players.
Posted on 6/5/25 at 7:03 am to ShockG082
Such a garbage “measure.” The 2019 team was predicted to lose several games all the way to going undefeated. 
I never put much stock in it before, but that completely rendered the fpi as useless for me.
I never put much stock in it before, but that completely rendered the fpi as useless for me.
Posted on 6/5/25 at 10:27 am to OlDirtyTiger7
quote:
ESPN's FPI is literally just made up nonsense.
FPI is a reasonable method of judging the relative strengths of a program but it is not very objective early in the season or preseason. Once teams start playing and winning/losing, the picture clears up a bit.
LSU has the 12th highest RPI and the 11th highest Remaining SOS. Both of those are highly speculative right now and will change by midseason, maybe a lot.
So nonsense now, better later in the season.
Posted on 6/5/25 at 10:52 am to mdomingue
quote:
So nonsense now, better later in the season.
So, explain being #2 after the 2019 season.
Posted on 6/5/25 at 11:07 am to holdem Tiger
quote:
So, explain being #2 after the 2019 season.
Is #2 a reasonable estimate when you finish #1 based on metrics that don't look at specifically where you finished?
Posted on 6/5/25 at 11:11 am to ShockG082
Brian Kelly, I say no more. You can have all the best players you can assemble. If you cannot coach them up makes no difference. 9-3 or 8-4 and CBK is in the hot seat.
Posted on 6/5/25 at 10:10 pm to mdomingue
No. We crushed everyone. There was only one reasonable rank.
Posted on 6/6/25 at 8:36 am to holdem Tiger
quote:
No. We crushed everyone. There was only one reasonable rank.
So what you are saying is you don't understand how the RPI is calculated. Got it.
Here is the general way it is done. Note that margin of victory is not used in the calculation and the constant B (OWP which is effectively the SOS) is typically weighted higher than constants A & C which are typically weighted the same as each other.
RPI = (A x WP) + (B x OWP) + (C x OOWP)
A, B, & C are weighting constants determining what impact each component has on the final number.
Winning Percentage (WP): This is calculated by dividing the number of wins by the total number of games played.
Opponents' Winning Percentage (OWP): This is the average of the winning percentages of a team's opponents.
Opponents' Opponents' Winning Percentage (OOWP): This is the average of the winning percentages of the opponents of a team's opponents.
Of course that is if you really want to know rather than just piss and moan.
Posted on 6/6/25 at 8:43 am to ShockG082
ESPN’s FPI is simply another tool used to evaluate teams. They use specific data and formulas to come up with their predictions. It’s not a guarantee. For some teams it ends up being accurate, for some teams it ends up being way off. But it takes out the subjectivity that you get with predictions from all these different people. It’s strictly based on data and numbers. For reference, before the start of last season, they predicted LSU to win 7.8 games.
This post was edited on 6/6/25 at 8:46 am
Posted on 6/6/25 at 9:33 am to mdomingue
quote:
Of course that is if you really want to know rather than just piss and moan
I could dig into the formula as you have to find out why it's shite. I just don't care.
Posted on 6/6/25 at 11:27 am to ShockG082
A few years ago, the FPI had Mississippi State in the preseason Top 10. I don't know if that has come out this year, but it's always squirrelly.
Posted on 6/6/25 at 11:37 am to ShockG082
The Clemson game is the fulcrum game. Get that one, then LSU has to go 9-2 the rest of the way to reach the CFP. That's very doable
Lose at Clemson and the road gets much tougher. LSU will likely need to go 10-1 the rest of the way considering three 9-3 SEC teams were left out of the CFP last year and only 1 SEC team lost fewer than 2 conference games.
Lose at Clemson and the road gets much tougher. LSU will likely need to go 10-1 the rest of the way considering three 9-3 SEC teams were left out of the CFP last year and only 1 SEC team lost fewer than 2 conference games.
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