re: SMU is a good win

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When I’m trying to lean away from my own bias, espn matchup predictor along with Bart torvic usually can at least give me some sort of confirmation. ESPN’s matchup predictor last I looked at it on Saturday after the win has lsu more likely to win 7 conference games. Bart torvic predicted a 9-9 conference record. Of course you can’t predict injuries or the effect of momentum or co fence a team has effecting future results. But right now analytics predict us at or slightly below .500 fwiw

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I know you said Torvic predicted 9-9 after the SMU win, but how often does Torvic update the predictions? Did you happen to check before the win to see if the prediction changed? I'd also be curious if it is still 9-9 today. Also, 9-9 is probably going to be close. I'm expecting 10-8 or 11-7 in the SEC, which would be our best season under McMahon. That would still be a good result for a strong SEC, even if it isn't the juggernaut that it was last year. What is Torvic's track record? Did he predict our 9-9 season in McMahon's first season?

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but how often does Torvic update the predictions? Did you happen to check before the win to see if the prediction changed? I'd also be curious if it is still 9-9 today

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yes 9-9

LINK

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Those numbers are irrelevant, since they are for totally different teams. There are only 2 past players on this team, and one is out for the season.

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You are correct in that they are four different teams. However, the HC is the constant. And the numbers say over the course of (to date) 3 different teams he's only been able to win 25% of his SEC games and 15% of SEC road games. Of course, there is hope that changes this year. But until it does there is reason to be skeptical because the constant among all of those 3 teams is still present.

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what I've seen justifies a NET in the 30s. They may end up 39 or 30, but I think 30s is justitfied. Some of the other NETs may be wrong too.

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There is no "right" or "wrong". The NET ranking are just the sum of data/numbers. Is LSU a good team this year? There's evidence to suggest they might be. But no one will fully know until SEC play starts and they are playing 2x per week against quality opponents. All I'm saying is that predicting 4, 5, 6 wins in a 7 game stretch for a coach who has only had one such stretch in 3 seasons (and 3 of the wins in that stretch were by a single point) is VERY optimistic.

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then we could shockingly be 6-1 in that stretch.

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gtfo

18 Arkansas - will get our doors blown off
35 at Tennessee - loss
69 at Texas - CMM on the road
14 Alabama - likely loss.
97 at Ole Miss - Again assuming a road win in the SEC under CMM is not a good bet
50 Oklahoma - Possible win
33 Auburn - only 3 losses are to 3 of the best teams in the country

You probably don’t know basketball. If you did you would recognize that Drake and DePaul are typically good basketball programs. Basketball is different than football. 120 teams compete in football. 330 in basketball.

Wish people just enjoyed the grind of the season.

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There is no "right" or "wrong". The NET ranking are just the sum of data/numbers. Is LSU a good team this year? There's evidence to suggest they might be. But no one will fully know until SEC play starts and they are playing 2x per week against quality opponents. All I'm saying is that predicting 4, 5, 6 wins in a 7 game stretch for a coach who has only had one such stretch in 3 seasons (and 3 of the wins in that stretch were by a single point) is VERY optimistic.

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McMahon hasn't done well with LSU, but I've seen some good coaching this year, and I see a team with enough talent to pull off a few surprise wins, while I also see a team that is consistently beating teams by margins that we expect. They just beat a good SMU team by 12 points, and I think 6 of the other 15 SEC teams are not as good as SMU, so I'm optimistic.

I don't think the SEC has an elite team this year, but I think the best teams in the SEC this year are Alabama, Arkansas, and Auburn, and I think all 3 have a decent chance to make the final 4. I think Kentucky, Vanderbilt and Florida are in the next group of very good teams. I think LSU is in a group with Georgia, Tennessee, Oklahoma and Texas of good teams, so the home team will get the edge in those games. Then the rest of the SEC are average to poor teams. So on a neutral field, I see 6 teams that will likely beat LSU, 4 that would be tossups but a likely win for the home team, and 5 that LSU would likely beat regardless of the venue.

I didn't predict 4, 5, or 6 wins. I actually said I would be shocked if they got 6 wins, but 5 would not be shocking, and 3 or 4 wins were likely. I was responding to the people who said we would be lucky to get 2 wins. I revisited the 7 team stretch with my strength grouping in mind, and I've changed my mind a little. I now think 3 wins is the most likely with wins at Texas and at Ole Miss, and a home win against Oklahoma, then likely losses against Arkansas, Auburn, and Alabama, but those are all home games which could generate a shocking win, but the best bet to get to 4 wins will be at Tennessee, which I think is more likely a loss. If they only win 2 of those 7 games, that would mean LSU is underperforming, and I think 5 wins would be a little shocking, because it would require overperforming, but this is basketball, and most teams don't perform the same from game to game, and matchups matter, so we'll see.

I agree with you OP. Most of the trolls on here aren't even LSU fans.

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Where is anyone saying that SMU wasn't a good win?

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Posted by Madking 12/13/25 at 8:27 pm to alessic7

Depressing, SMU is not good. We should be up 15 right now

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ESPN analytics tabs the Tigers with 8 conf wins this year: South Carolina x 2, Georgia, Arkansas (at home), Texas A&M (at home), Miss St (at home), Oklahoma (at home) and one more, can't remember, but also a home game (maybe Missouri).