Reality check, Tigers are in for a struggle

Make no mistake. I'm as big a LSU fan as the next guy. I'm not saying anything other than the statistics say we should be the underdogs in this one. I hope as much as everyone on here that the statistics are lying.

#1. Our rushing offense isn't as good as you may think, and Florida's rushing defense really is THAT good.

Only Arkansas has rushed for more than 100 yards versus Florida (111 yards). The second most yards given up has been 66 yards. 4/5 teams have rushed for 66 yards or less. Of those four, the next fewest yards rushing in any game has been 125 yards- so these aren't teams that can't run the ball. LSU, on the other hand, has only rushed for more yards against an opponent than anyone else on that opponent's schedule once (Auburn), been the second most twice (Kent, Miss State). So to date, at least two other teams have rushed for more yards versus an LSU opponent than LSU did in 3/6 games. Plus, LSU HAS ALREADY BEEN HELD UNDER 100 YARDS vs. GEORGIA, not a very good rush defense. The statistics are saying that LSU will rush for +/- 69-76 yards against Florida.

#2. Mettenberger will NOT throw for 300+ yards.

I saw Beckham play once in high school. I'm a big fan. I think Jarvis Landry is the most impressive WR as far as skills go. Mettenberger is a SR QB who rarely throws INTs. Still, if you think the passing game will explode in this game, you know something the statistics don't. First, Florida is damn good against the pass. 3/5 FLA opponents thus far have had their lowest passing-yard output versus Florida. Another one had its 2nd lowest. No TEAM HAS PASSED FOR MORE THAN 200 YARDS VS. FLORIDA-- 164 yards is the max, in fact. Despite the statistics FLA's defense has, the statistics I'm using still has LSU passing for 173-213 yards. for those that say those nmbers are way too low, remember that LSU had 229 yards vs. Auburn and 251 yards versus TCU. Florida's pass defense is better than both. LSU will NOT throw for 300+ yards.

#3 Florida will run on LSU and will score points

Florida has rushed for more than 100 yards in every game and has had 200+ yards in 3/5 games. LSU has given up 100 yards rushing in every game but Kent St. and has given up 200+ yards twice (Auburn, Miss State). Further, Florida has scored at least 24 points in every game but the Miami game (16 pts.) where they turned the ball over multiple times in the red zone. LSU has given up at least 13 points (Kent St) in every game and 20+ points in 4/6 games. Very likely Florida scores at least 20 points.


In summary, my statistics show..

LSU rushing for 66-79 yards
LSU passing for 173-213 yards
Total Offense= 242-289 yards
**FLORIDA AVG. 217 YPG SO THIS IS A LOT OF YARDS FOR THEM**
LSU scoring 16-19 points

Florida rushing for 134-227 yards
Florida passing for 171-193 yards
Total offense= 334-391 yards
Florida scoring 21-26 points


So, there you go. The statistics say LSU loses something like 24-17.

Even if the statistics are lying, LSU is in for a struggle.


For those that are blinded by the perceived awesomeness of LSU's offense.

LSU beat Oklahoma 21-14 in the 2003 BCS. Oklahoma was supposed to have an amazing offense. It so happens that Muschamp is also involved in this game.

Oregon vs. Auburn was not the shootout everyone expected.

Defense wins championships. Florida has a damn good one. It will be a test for sure.