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Percentage Chance of LSU Winning out
Posted on 11/4/24 at 3:20 pm
Posted on 11/4/24 at 3:20 pm
The percentage change of LSU winning the remaining four games in 14%.
Alabama (-3.0) vs. LSU = 42.5%
LSU (-5.5) vs. Florida = 65.2%
Vanderbilt vs. LSU (-8.0) = 73.9%
Oklahoma vs. LSU (-7) = 70.53%
It appears that LSU has a 14% chance of winning out to make the playoffs.
Alabama (-3.0) vs. LSU = 42.5%
LSU (-5.5) vs. Florida = 65.2%
Vanderbilt vs. LSU (-8.0) = 73.9%
Oklahoma vs. LSU (-7) = 70.53%
It appears that LSU has a 14% chance of winning out to make the playoffs.
11
Posted on 11/4/24 at 3:21 pm to Salviati
Eh, seems low.
My numbers have LSU winning out at around 47%
My numbers have LSU winning out at around 47%
Posted on 11/4/24 at 3:22 pm to Salviati
My gut is telling me 25% chance.
Could definitely happen, but this team hasn’t looked amazing this year across the board minus maybe the ARK game. Gonna be tough.
Could definitely happen, but this team hasn’t looked amazing this year across the board minus maybe the ARK game. Gonna be tough.
Posted on 11/4/24 at 3:22 pm to 225Tyga
quote:
Eh, seems low.
My numbers have LSU winning out at around 47%
Do you even math bro?
Posted on 11/4/24 at 3:22 pm to Salviati
Would be some shite to beat Bama with a clear path to the SEC Championship and lose to Florida
Posted on 11/4/24 at 3:22 pm to Salviati
quote:
Alabama (-3.0) vs. LSU = 42.5%
This is bullshte!
LSU should be favored to win at home against a not great bama team
so sick of these guys
just beat the shte out of them
Posted on 11/4/24 at 3:23 pm to 225Tyga
Agree with you.
Plus the best advice I have received on things happening tells me it’s 50/50. It either happens or it doesn’t, 50/50.
Plus the best advice I have received on things happening tells me it’s 50/50. It either happens or it doesn’t, 50/50.
Posted on 11/4/24 at 3:23 pm to Salviati
If they take it 1 game at a time, 100 percent.
Posted on 11/4/24 at 3:23 pm to 225Tyga
quote:We have less than 47% chance of winning the Alabama game.
Eh, seems low.
My numbers have LSU winning out at around 47%
Posted on 11/4/24 at 3:26 pm to Bottom9
quote:
Would be some shite to beat Bama with a clear path to the SEC Championship and lose to Florida
Lagway will probably kill us
Posted on 11/4/24 at 3:30 pm to NorthshoreTiger76
quote:Lagway is likely out.
Lagway will probably kill us
This post was edited on 11/4/24 at 3:31 pm
Posted on 11/4/24 at 3:33 pm to Salviati
That's a 3.7% win out probability.
Posted on 11/4/24 at 3:35 pm to Salviati
0.0350
Posted on 11/4/24 at 3:44 pm to Cole Beer
quote:
Percentage Chance of LSU Winning out
0.0350
I'm sorry...too easy.
Posted on 11/4/24 at 3:48 pm to Salviati
Posted on 11/4/24 at 3:49 pm to Salviati
It’s not as simple as multiplying each games win probability for the four remaining games. A lot of intangibles at play (momentum, injuries, motivation to win given your circumstances, etc).
Posted on 11/4/24 at 3:52 pm to Salviati
We don't round up anymore? Give the kids their 15%.
Posted on 11/4/24 at 4:06 pm to 225Tyga
quote:
Eh, seems low.
My numbers have LSU winning out at around 47%
Show your work then? OP just treated it as disjoint independent probabilities and just multiplied them together.
This post was edited on 11/4/24 at 4:07 pm
Posted on 11/4/24 at 4:25 pm to ApexTiger
quote:
LSU should be favored to win at home against a not great bama team
the problem is you can't say this is a great LSU team. This line is all based on Milroe running all over us last year and A&M and SC doing it also
Posted on 11/4/24 at 4:34 pm to nclsutiger
quote:At this point in time, it is that simple.
It’s not as simple as multiplying each games win probability for the four remaining games. A lot of intangibles at play (momentum, injuries, motivation to win given your circumstances, etc).
Certainly, the percentage chance of winning all four games changes as events occur. Tomorrow's percentage chance may be different from today's percentage chance. But the current state of events as of today, the probabilities of LSU winning those four games as of today, are baked into the odds provided by Las Vegas. If Nuss gets hurt tomorrow, Vegas will change the odds for the games, and the percentage chance that LSU wins all four games will decrease. If LSU beats Bama, the percentage chance that LSU wins all four games will increase. If Dellinger comes back, the percentage chance that LSU wins al four games will increase.
So while I agree that there are a lot of intangibles at play (momentum, injuries, motivation to win given your circumstances, etc), those intangibles have not happened yet. Accordingly, the percentage chance that I provided for TODAY is as accurate as any other calculation given the current facts.
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