re: Percentage Chance of LSU Winning out

quote:

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That's a 3.7% win out probability.

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Wrong.

G1 = Alabama (-3.0) vs. LSU = 42.5%
G2 = LSU (-5.5) vs. Florida = 65.2%
G3 = Vanderbilt vs. LSU (-8.0) = 73.9%
G4 = Oklahoma vs. LSU (-7) = 70.5%

Chance of LSU winning G1 = G1
. . . . 42.5% = 42.5%
Chance of LSU winning G1 and G2 = G1 x G2
. . . . 42.5% x 65.2% = 27.7%
Chance of LSU winning G1, G2, and G3 = G1 x G2 x G3
. . . . 42.5% x 65.2% x 73.9% = 20.5%
Chance of LSU winning G1, G2, G3, and G4 = G1 x G2 x G3 x G4
. . . . 42.5% x 65.2% x 73.9% x 70.5% = 14.4%