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Nuss isn't as interception prone as you think.
Posted on 10/18/24 at 12:27 pm
Posted on 10/18/24 at 12:27 pm
I'm comparing Nussmeier to other passing yardage leading Quarterbacks by pass attempts per interception. The following QBs are the top 10, listened by rank, in total passing yardage. The higher the number the less often an interception is thrown per attempt.
Jaxson Dart INT - 71.7
Cam Ward INT - 42.8
Kyle McCord INT - 47
Shedeur Sanders INT - 59.3
Garrett Nussmeier INT - 41.5
Josh Hoover INT - 39.3
Chandler Morris INT - 33.3
Will Rogers INT - 106
Carson Beck INT - 41.8
Dillon Gabriel INT - 67
The average number of interceptions thrown by QBs in the top 10 of passing yards is 4.7 interceptions. With 48.7 pass attempts per interception being the avearge, and 44.9 pass attempts per interception being the median.
With that said, Garrett Nussmeier is SLIGHTLY below the average and median when calculating pass attempts per interception.
This obviously doesn't factor in strength of opponent, which obviously LSU has played significantly better defenses than most of these teams.
I think the biggest issue people have when they think of Nussmeiers interceptions is just how often it is a why in the absolute frick did you throw that ball, not a, well the DB made a great play or the defense baited the throw with a disguised coverage.
Jaxson Dart INT - 71.7
Cam Ward INT - 42.8
Kyle McCord INT - 47
Shedeur Sanders INT - 59.3
Garrett Nussmeier INT - 41.5
Josh Hoover INT - 39.3
Chandler Morris INT - 33.3
Will Rogers INT - 106
Carson Beck INT - 41.8
Dillon Gabriel INT - 67
The average number of interceptions thrown by QBs in the top 10 of passing yards is 4.7 interceptions. With 48.7 pass attempts per interception being the avearge, and 44.9 pass attempts per interception being the median.
With that said, Garrett Nussmeier is SLIGHTLY below the average and median when calculating pass attempts per interception.
This obviously doesn't factor in strength of opponent, which obviously LSU has played significantly better defenses than most of these teams.
I think the biggest issue people have when they think of Nussmeiers interceptions is just how often it is a why in the absolute frick did you throw that ball, not a, well the DB made a great play or the defense baited the throw with a disguised coverage.
This post was edited on 10/18/24 at 7:26 pm
Posted on 10/18/24 at 12:29 pm to Hurricane2020
Unprecedented numbers in his first season by a lot yet he’s constantly bashed here. Pretty crazy
Posted on 10/18/24 at 12:34 pm to Madking
Best first year starter LSU has seen.
Posted on 10/18/24 at 12:35 pm to Hurricane2020
quote:
INTERCEPTIONS per pass attempt
you have that written backwards.
Posted on 10/18/24 at 12:39 pm to Hurricane2020
He's ranked 60th nationally in interception percentage which is a measure of the percentage of his passes attempted that are intercepted. That number is 2.4%
Nussmeier is going to make (as Cole Cublic called them) a handful of "IDGAF" (I don't give a F--k) throws a game because of his supreme confidence in his ability. However, you live with those because that same extreme confidence is what allows him to make the TD throw to Anderson on 4th down...or the 4th down throw to Taylor before that...and the roll out sling across his body to Taylor while being run down by a Ole Miss defender.
I said before the season Nuss was likely going to throw 10+ INTs. He's on pace to do just that. However, the defense was going to have to mitigate some of those because the LAST thing you want to do is put the reins on his confidence/bravado. That's the part that makes him great.
quote:
I think the biggest issue people have when they think of Nussmeiers interceptions is just how often it is a why in the absolute frick did you throw that ball, not a, well the DB made a great play or the defense baited the throw with a disguised coverage.
Nussmeier is going to make (as Cole Cublic called them) a handful of "IDGAF" (I don't give a F--k) throws a game because of his supreme confidence in his ability. However, you live with those because that same extreme confidence is what allows him to make the TD throw to Anderson on 4th down...or the 4th down throw to Taylor before that...and the roll out sling across his body to Taylor while being run down by a Ole Miss defender.
I said before the season Nuss was likely going to throw 10+ INTs. He's on pace to do just that. However, the defense was going to have to mitigate some of those because the LAST thing you want to do is put the reins on his confidence/bravado. That's the part that makes him great.
Posted on 10/18/24 at 12:45 pm to Hurricane2020
He occasionally makes a dumb mistake but he hasn’t had the issues he had in the past.
he’s much better this year.
he’s much better this year.
Posted on 10/18/24 at 12:46 pm to Hurricane2020
quote:
think the biggest issue people have when they think of Nussmeiers interceptions is just how often it is a why in the absolute frick did you throw that ball, not a, well the DB made a great play or the defense baited the throw with a disguised coverage.
I would say focus on the process, not the results.
Your stats are very basic & even with a simple addition of YPA would tell you more.
And to be honest, INTs are not his biggest issue.
This post was edited on 10/18/24 at 12:47 pm
Posted on 10/18/24 at 12:49 pm to Hurricane2020
LSU fans are spoiled
Posted on 10/18/24 at 12:53 pm to Nutriaitch
Yea i had it written both correctly and backwards at different spots. Thanks for the catch, I fixed it.
Posted on 10/18/24 at 12:54 pm to Hurricane2020
My biggest concern coming into thye year was Nuss forcing too many throws into double and triple coverage like he did in mop up duty. Jayden was very good with limiting turnovers. I have been extremely happy with Nuss and his willingness to check the ball down instead of throwing into double and triple coverage. Of course he, and every qb, will still do it some but he has been great with ball security this year.
Posted on 10/18/24 at 12:55 pm to BayouBaw84
So far without a doubt
Posted on 10/18/24 at 12:57 pm to Lester Earl
You are right, my stats are simple. But offensive schemes are completely different, so using yards per attempt per isn't a perfect either to calculate a interception efficency rating. Maybe using turnover worthy plays would be a better stat to use. But that's also a subjective metric and is much harder to find.
Posted on 10/18/24 at 1:01 pm to Topwater Trout
quote:
I have been extremely happy with Nuss and his willingness to check the ball down instead of throwing into double and triple coverage.
That’s great if you are hitting long passes too
Not throwing INTs when you aren’t completing the ball downfield is not a special feat.
Nuss has been very risk-adverse to a point where he’ll overthrow a WR downfield because he is afraid of turning it over. This has happened consistently all year.
Posted on 10/18/24 at 1:09 pm to Hurricane2020
LSU fans will harp on every single mistake by the QB b/c they watch every single play.
Promise you every QB in the country have had some bad WTF INT's.
It happens to the best of them.
Promise you every QB in the country have had some bad WTF INT's.
It happens to the best of them.
Posted on 10/18/24 at 1:09 pm to Hurricane2020
LSU has had 2 Heisman winning QBs in the last 5 years. Both are tearing it up in the NFL. Nuss is on pace this year to have the 3rd best season outside of their Heisman winning campaigns.
About :
4,000 yards
36 TDs
12 into
And that's regular season. He's playing at a historical level as far as LSU's history goes. If he comes back next year, he only has a very small step to take to become truly elite.
About :
4,000 yards
36 TDs
12 into
And that's regular season. He's playing at a historical level as far as LSU's history goes. If he comes back next year, he only has a very small step to take to become truly elite.
Posted on 10/18/24 at 1:12 pm to Hurricane2020
His YPA is very good, let’s do a comparison..
Nuss- 8.0ypa
JD5- 7.5
Burrow- 7.6
Hodson- 8.0
JRuss- 7.9
Mett- 7.4
Rohan- 9.1
Jones- 8.6
So of our alltime best passers Nuss ranks tied for 3rd for a 1st year starter, ahead of both Heisman winners and a #1 overall pick.
Nuss- 8.0ypa
JD5- 7.5
Burrow- 7.6
Hodson- 8.0
JRuss- 7.9
Mett- 7.4
Rohan- 9.1
Jones- 8.6
So of our alltime best passers Nuss ranks tied for 3rd for a 1st year starter, ahead of both Heisman winners and a #1 overall pick.
Posted on 10/18/24 at 1:23 pm to Hurricane2020
quote:
Nuss isn't as interception prone as you think.
yes he is.
He has 6 in 6 games (1 per game average)
Max Johnson threw 7 in 15 games (1 every 2.5 games average)
Danny Etling threw 7 in 25 games (1 every 3.5 games average)
Jayden Daniels threw 7 26 games (1 every 3.7 games average)
Joe Burrow threw 11 in 28 games (1 every 2.5 games average)
want to go by pass attempts instead?
Nuss has 6 in 249 attempts (1 per 41.5 attempts)
TJ Finley threw 5 in 140 attempts (1 per 28 attempts)
Myles Brennan threw 3 in 131 attempts (1 per 43.7 attempts)
Max Johnson threw 7 in 523 attempts (1 per 74.7 attempts)
Danny Etling threw 7 in 544 attempts (1 per 77.7 attempts)
Joe Burrow threw 11 in 906 attempts (1 per 82.4 attempts)
Jayden Daniels threw 7 in 715 attempts (1 per 102.1 attempts)
Posted on 10/18/24 at 1:25 pm to Hurricane2020
I like nuss. But he does have flaws. Didnt he have 2 pick 6’s negated by penalty against south carolina? I think he and the team was incredibly lucky that day.
Like i said, i like him, he is good, but i believe he does have a bit of a problem there. But the bigger issue is his effectiveness and technique when facing pressure. Cowering and throwing off his back foot isnt a good look
Like i said, i like him, he is good, but i believe he does have a bit of a problem there. But the bigger issue is his effectiveness and technique when facing pressure. Cowering and throwing off his back foot isnt a good look
Posted on 10/18/24 at 1:27 pm to josh336
quote:
Didnt he have 2 pick 6’s negated by penalty against south carolina?
1 came off completely.
the other int counted, but not the TD
Posted on 10/18/24 at 1:35 pm to Hurricane2020
He has a a couple that were just bad luck. Cant really fault him for a batted ball.
The one against South Carolina and the 2nd against Ole Miss were bad balls but thats going to happen to everyone eventually.
The one against South Carolina and the 2nd against Ole Miss were bad balls but thats going to happen to everyone eventually.
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