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Message
re: North Carolina May Be Without 16 Players This Weekend
Posted on 9/2/10 at 8:05 am to Icansee4miles
Posted on 9/2/10 at 8:05 am to Icansee4miles
quote:
Losing their entire starting defense and there is still only a 4-5 point line? Sounds like Vegas has about as much confidence in Joe Schad as many LSU fans do.
Fixed
1
Posted on 9/2/10 at 8:14 am to adammwilson
When it is all said and done, they'll have about the same number suspended as we will have injured.
From a psychological standpoint, this is terrible. Now people are EXPECTING to play a depleted team. So if my suspicions are on and only 4 of them sit, big time mental edge to UNC.
From a psychological standpoint, this is terrible. Now people are EXPECTING to play a depleted team. So if my suspicions are on and only 4 of them sit, big time mental edge to UNC.
Posted on 9/2/10 at 8:16 am to Jester
1) I can't believe they're trying to peddle this stuff about Austin's possibly being for minor traffic violations. LINK. Suuurree, that's what it is. 
2) Who got on/didn't get on the dang plane? These guys are keeping the actual info (or at least keeping confirmation of the different scenarios floating around) under pretty good wraps.
2) Who got on/didn't get on the dang plane? These guys are keeping the actual info (or at least keeping confirmation of the different scenarios floating around) under pretty good wraps.
Posted on 9/2/10 at 8:50 am to Methuselah
After last season, any LSU fan should be ecstatic if we win this game by at least 2 or 3 td's and the offense at least looks mediocre. We couldn't even blowout bad teams last year.
Posted on 9/2/10 at 8:58 am to Mike Linebacker
quote:
they'll have about the same number suspended as we will have injured.
good point.
quote:
Now people are EXPECTING to play a depleted team. So if my suspicions are on and only 4 of them sit, big time mental edge to UNC.
true
Posted on 9/2/10 at 9:00 am to adammwilson
LSU isn't going to win by 3 tds. LSU should win, but I highly doubt they blow UNC out.
Posted on 9/2/10 at 9:02 am to OneMoreTime
how yu get esnp to send tex mesages?
Posted on 9/2/10 at 9:03 am to The Boat
quote:
No one remembers week 1 in November.
the Virginia Tech game won LSU the NC in 2007
Posted on 9/2/10 at 9:04 am to Icansee4miles
quote:
Losing their entire starting defense and there is still only a 4-5 point line? Sounds like Vegas has about as much confidence in our offense as many LSU fans do.
This has nothing to do with Vegas' confidence in our offense. They can't, and won't, move a line very far because if they do they stand to lose a lot of money. People who locked in the game at LSU +1.5 can now take a second bet and lock the game at UNC +5 and have a pretty decent shot at double dipping if LSU wins by....say 3. The more they move the line, the more Vegas stands to get creamed. Moving it 6.5 points is almost unheard of.
Posted on 9/2/10 at 9:09 am to RummelTiger
quote:
RummelTiger
Dude, your avatar pic is simply amazing...
This post was edited on 9/2/10 at 9:10 am
Posted on 9/2/10 at 9:11 am to guttata
If UNC is missing anywhere close to 16, this is going to be a nasty, nasty, slaughter by the half.
Posted on 9/2/10 at 9:17 am to LSU Patrick
A tainted LSU win. Sad we won't be able to see just how good LSU really is.
Posted on 9/2/10 at 9:20 am to adammwilson
quote:
they'll have about the same number suspended as we will have injured.
You really can't compare an All-American DT and an All-ACC WR to a first year starting OLB and TE
Posted on 9/2/10 at 9:24 am to dukke v
quote:
A tainted LSU win. Sad we won't be able to see just how good LSU really is.
Plenty of chances on this schedule. I would rather LSU play UNC at full force, but it wouldn't hurt my feelings to see fireworks to start the season either.
Posted on 9/2/10 at 9:25 am to Mike Linebacker
quote:
From a psychological standpoint, this is terrible. Now people are EXPECTING to play a depleted team. So if my suspicions are on and only 4 of them sit, big time mental edge to UNC.
you're an idiot, the fans mindset IS NOT the same as the players, that's why they play and we watch they know how to stay focused, I hate when people assume just because a few fans think or talk a certain way that the team is "overlooking or underestimating" another team
Posted on 9/2/10 at 9:38 am to rossman
quote:
This has nothing to do with Vegas' confidence in our offense. They can't, and won't, move a line very far because if they do they stand to lose a lot of money. People who locked in the game at LSU +1.5 can now take a second bet and lock the game at UNC +5 and have a pretty decent shot at double dipping if LSU wins by....say 3. The more they move the line, the more Vegas stands to get creamed. Moving it 6.5 points is almost unheard of.
Your logic doesn't really hold. It totally discounts new betters, who will have a much better chance at winning with a bad line. Why would they be concerned about an increase in pushes? Money moves in wins and losses. At this point, with the way everything is going down, their best bet is probably to INCREASE their pushes, because it would mean less wins.
Quite frankly, the smart way to deal with it to minimize losses is to separate old bets from new bets. It doesn't matter who the betters are, just the bets. They cannot control past bets, but they can control future bets. As such, they have to keep the future bets in their favor. They are odds-makers and they should understand the basic statistics involved.
Posted on 9/2/10 at 9:42 am to Ignignot
quote:
you're an idiot, the fans mindset IS NOT the same as the players, that's why they play and we watch they know how to stay focused, I hate when people assume just because a few fans think or talk a certain way that the team is "overlooking or underestimating" another team
Ignignot, having played at the collegiate level, I can assure you that college football players are not immune to wishful thinking. I hope you are correct and we have a focused team that is not paying attention to this at all and assuming they are getting UNC's best. And the coaches will talk about that and the players will say it in interviews. But in the end they are human and they are 18-22 years-old. Too assume otherwise is the real folly.
Posted on 9/2/10 at 9:43 am to Jester
quote:
Your logic doesn't really hold. It totally discounts new betters, who will have a much better chance at winning with a bad line. Why would they be concerned about an increase in pushes? Money moves in wins and losses. At this point, with the way everything is going down, their best bet is probably to INCREASE their pushes, because it would mean less wins.
The example I gave does not result in a push. It would result in people winning double.
Posted on 9/2/10 at 9:47 am to rossman
quote:
The example I gave does not result in a push. It would result in people winning double.
Okay, it would also involve them betting double. However, the result of the first bet does not affect that of the second. The odds-makers understand this. It's kind of a Gambler's fallacy.
Like I implied by correcting an earlier post, the small line change has more to do with this all being a RUMOR than it does with anything being mentioned here. If anything, I'd say that the small line change may imply that there are less than 16 suspended. That's if you believe that Vegas is as connected as most people tend to.
Posted on 9/2/10 at 10:04 am to dukke v
quote:
A tainted LSU win. Sad we won't be able to see just how good LSU really is.
all you do is flame, it's quite easy to see through your posts
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