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Started By
Message
re: Marceaux Starting against Gonzaga, Gio will be back
Posted on 6/1/21 at 10:17 am to Honkus
Posted on 6/1/21 at 10:17 am to Honkus
This is stupid. Every SEC team we faced this year knew exactly who they were facing on Friday. That would be Landon Marceaux and he still had one of the best era’s in the country.
1
Posted on 6/1/21 at 10:21 am to DhanTigers212
Well, yea, but that doesnt mean that there's an advantage, or that the other team is at a disadvantage, if they don't know who they are facing.
It's not a big disadvantage, but you take everything you can get at this time of the year.
It's not a big disadvantage, but you take everything you can get at this time of the year.
Posted on 6/1/21 at 10:27 am to geauxtigers33
quote:
It’s already a long shot to win the regional and it is nearly impossible with this pitching staff to win out of the losers bracket.
While both of your statements are true, it's not clear that starting Marceaux against the #2 and Hilliard against the #1 gives you the highest probability of winning both. Winning the first 2 games is LSU's only chance of winning the regional IMO. I'm guessing most agree with that.
In fact, I think the opposite is true. If you are trying to win both, I'd take my chances with Hilliard against Gonzaga...knowing that it lowers my chances of winning that game. That would be my stand. Win it, and we are at least on par and probably have an advantage on the mound. Lose it, and you concede it would take a miracle to come out of the regional.
I think an argument can be made for either approach. But, I think your line of thinking is a great example of not considering everything before coming to a conclusion. Unfortunately, I think PM is doing the same thing.
Posted on 6/1/21 at 10:31 am to LSUFanHouston
quote:
If you win the first game, and then you win the 1-0 game, you are in great position. You have to do both.
If you are going to lose a game, it doesn't matter which one you lose... and our bullpen, I don't think, can pitch us through those two extra games.
You have to do whatever you can to get to Sunday at 2-0. And the first thing is to win Friday.
I agree with your logic except for the part about "the first thing is to win Friday" being important. In fact, that's the opposite of the point you should be making.
We HAVE to win both. So, you should choose your matchups that give you the best chance of winning BOTH.
It's illogical to say, we need to win both and you can't win 2 without winning 1, so put your best pitcher first.
Posted on 6/1/21 at 10:32 am to josh336
quote:
Gio being back makes it seem likely that Bianco goes back to 2nd with Arnold at DH.
Should have been the lineup the entire time Gio was healthy.
Posted on 6/1/21 at 10:32 am to Naptime
quote:
Look up their pitcher’s stats and it’s pretty easy to understand. Do you start Beloso, Sanford or Drost?
SEC stats Ave/OB%
Beloso 197/295.76 ABs 2 homers
Sanford 286/333 28 ABs
Drost 154/290 26 ABs 1 homer
Arnold 200/229 45 ABs 2 homers
Bianco 255/406 55 ABs 3 homers
You would think Bianco has to play ahead of these four.
Posted on 6/1/21 at 10:42 am to Naptime
Me? I start Sanford. But I assumed Beloso.
Posted on 6/1/21 at 10:46 am to moneyg
quote:
While both of your statements are true, it's not clear that starting Marceaux against the #2 and Hilliard against the #1 gives you the highest probability of winning both. Winning the first 2 games is LSU's only chance of winning the regional IMO. I'm guessing most agree with that.
In fact, I think the opposite is true. If you are trying to win both, I'd take my chances with Hilliard against Gonzaga...knowing that it lowers my chances of winning that game. That would be my stand. Win it, and we are at least on par and probably have an advantage on the mound. Lose it, and you concede it would take a miracle to come out of the regional.
I think an argument can be made for either approach. But, I think your line of thinking is a great example of not considering everything before coming to a conclusion. Unfortunately, I think PM is doing the same thing.
I think people undervalue the momentum and mental aspect of winning the first game, especially at an unfamiliar ball park. Pitch your best pitcher in game 1 and get your feet under you in a new ball park. Hopefully we can carry some momentum over onto saturday. If Marceau gives us 7 quality innings, I really like our chances on saturday with Hillard and our full pen.
Posted on 6/1/21 at 10:50 am to UpToPar
Well shite, I certainly hope he gives up less than 6!
Posted on 6/1/21 at 11:09 am to doubleb
My message erased but I was saying if Sanford & Drost had as many abs as Beloso and Bianco we would have one hell of a batting order by now!
Morgan
Sanford 28
Crews
Dug
Doughty
Arnold
Drost
Milozzo
Gio
Morgan
Sanford 28
Crews
Dug
Doughty
Arnold
Drost
Milozzo
Gio
This post was edited on 6/1/21 at 11:12 am
Posted on 6/1/21 at 11:28 am to PlaylikeJeter
With Gio back he seems to be a good fit for the 9 hole, but another possible option there is bianco. He doesn't hit well enough to be in the top half of the lineup but he has been pretty good at working the counts lately, he has decent speed and overall has been hitting better in the back half of the season. Maybe he'd get better pitches in the 9 hole, but I don't really know. I'm also of the opinion that you don't want milazzo at 9
Posted on 6/1/21 at 11:50 am to PlaylikeJeter
quote:
Morgan
Sanford 28
Crews
Dug
Doughty
Arnold
Drost
Milozzo
Gio
Arnold
Drost
Milazzo
All three batted under 200 in SEC play. Putting those three in a row would not be a good lineup.
Posted on 6/1/21 at 12:02 pm to doubleb
The variance in suggested lineups in this thread is proof positive of the impossible task that any LSU baseball coach has.
All you have to do is win every game so that nobody can say, “I told you so.”
All you have to do is win every game so that nobody can say, “I told you so.”
Posted on 6/1/21 at 12:05 pm to doubleb
I was responding to someone else’s post. I said if Drost or Sanford had as many at bats as Beloso or Bianco that would be the batting order but it’s to late now.
Posted on 6/1/21 at 12:13 pm to PlaylikeJeter
I just picked someone to respond to but this goes for everybody. Playing the damn lefty righty matchup has been SH!T for us this year. Paul does not need to overthink this. Go with who has played the most this year.
Gio in CF
Bianco at 2nd
Arnold at DH
Anything other than that would be a terrible coaching decision...per usual!
Safford, Sanford, Cranford, and Beloso have all be awful this year. Bianco and Gio give you fantastic defense and just as good bats in the lineup. Don’t get cute Paul!!
Gio in CF
Bianco at 2nd
Arnold at DH
Anything other than that would be a terrible coaching decision...per usual!
Safford, Sanford, Cranford, and Beloso have all be awful this year. Bianco and Gio give you fantastic defense and just as good bats in the lineup. Don’t get cute Paul!!
Posted on 6/1/21 at 12:24 pm to PlaylikeJeter
quote:
I was responding to someone else’s post. I said if Drost or Sanford had as many at bats as Beloso or Bianco that would be the batting order but it’s to late now.
They didn’t get the ABs because they didn’t produce much when they played. More ABs doesn’t guarantee success.
Posted on 6/1/21 at 12:38 pm to doubleb
And Bianco and Beloso did? They are, and will prove to be better hitters than those two I promise you.
Posted on 6/1/21 at 12:41 pm to Gallant_Gringo
I completely agree about not overthinking it. That has been one of our biggest downfalls this season. Play your best 9.
Morgan
Crews
Doughty
Dugas
Arnold
Thompson
Bianco
Milazzo
Gio
If you need a bat off the bench or in a subsequent game, use Sanford, Beloso, and/or Drost. Cranford should no longer to considered for defensive purposes - he's made some critical mistakes and offers nothing at the plate.
Set your rotation and roll with it. Marceaux, Hilliard/Labas, Labas/Hilliard. Fontenot is obviously our closer, but the rest of the arms need to be used wisely.
Morgan
Crews
Doughty
Dugas
Arnold
Thompson
Bianco
Milazzo
Gio
If you need a bat off the bench or in a subsequent game, use Sanford, Beloso, and/or Drost. Cranford should no longer to considered for defensive purposes - he's made some critical mistakes and offers nothing at the plate.
Set your rotation and roll with it. Marceaux, Hilliard/Labas, Labas/Hilliard. Fontenot is obviously our closer, but the rest of the arms need to be used wisely.
Posted on 6/1/21 at 12:44 pm to PlaylikeJeter
quote:
And Bianco and Beloso did? They are, and will prove to be better hitters than those two I promise you.
Bianco performed better in time, but Beloso did worse.
And neither Drost or Arnold proved that in their times at the plate.
The coach has to pick a lineup to win this weekend. Nobody is getting 25 or 30 ABs to improve. The lineup has to perform day one.
Posted on 6/1/21 at 12:50 pm to UpToPar
quote:
Well, yea, but that doesnt mean that there's an advantage, or that the other team is at a disadvantage, if they don't know who they are facing.
It's not a big disadvantage, but you take everything you can get at this time of the year.
I agree with your point, but there’s no way Gonzaga wouldn’t prepare as though Marceaux would start even if PM didn’t announce it. One guy has been the Friday night ace all year long, and the other didn’t start until halfway through the season and when he did he was the game 3 starter.
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