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Started By
Message
re: LSUmatt, if you're still online: Computer projections i came up with.
Posted on 12/4/11 at 4:01 pm to Geaux2002
Posted on 12/4/11 at 4:01 pm to Geaux2002
quote:i didn't. But its been rumored for years that he bases a point value to every FBS team based on last years finish. For example, beating auburn got lsu 120 points, and beating Oregon 118(finished 3rd last year)
How did you reproduce the Wolfe Poll?
2
Posted on 12/4/11 at 4:02 pm to 7thWardTiger
Just checked it, OSU would need 45% of the #2s to get in assuming they only have a computer score of .95
Posted on 12/4/11 at 4:02 pm to 7thWardTiger
I'm thinking they're messing with everyone ... who would watch the show if we all already knew???
Yes, I'm simple minded ... and pulling for OSU for very selfish reasons sad to say.
Yes, I'm simple minded ... and pulling for OSU for very selfish reasons sad to say.
Posted on 12/4/11 at 4:04 pm to 13AMS
With the Coaches Poll results and the expected computer polls, we get:
....................Computers.....Coaches....Total
Alabama............... .930...... .9485...... .9393
Oklahoma State..... .950...... .9268...... .9384
60 of 115 Harris Poll voters would have to vote for Oklahoma State over Alabama and not place them below #3 on any ballot. Be aware 7 coaches voted Oklahoma State #4 behind Stanford most likely. As many as 98 Harris voters had Oklahoma State behind Stanford coming into this week. For every two 4th place votes, they need another 2nd place vote switch with Bama. So if 10 voters place Oklahoma State 4th, they would need 65 voters placing them over Bama, not 60.
Final results in that case:
....................Computers.....Coaches....Harri s.... Total
Alabama............... .930...... .9485...... .9391......93920
Oklahoma State..... .950...... .9268...... .9409.... .93923
Bottom line, minimum 60 voters out of 115 need to put Oklahoma State #2 over Bama, and as many as 65 may need to based on Okie State being placed 4th on some ballots.
Again, only if Wolfe goes to Alabama, which I think is the case with all the chatter.
If Wolfe goes to Okie State, the range of 2nd place votes is only 32-37 votes for Okie State out of 115, given that some ballots may have them #4 as well.
....................Computers.....Coaches....Total
Alabama............... .930...... .9485...... .9393
Oklahoma State..... .950...... .9268...... .9384
60 of 115 Harris Poll voters would have to vote for Oklahoma State over Alabama and not place them below #3 on any ballot. Be aware 7 coaches voted Oklahoma State #4 behind Stanford most likely. As many as 98 Harris voters had Oklahoma State behind Stanford coming into this week. For every two 4th place votes, they need another 2nd place vote switch with Bama. So if 10 voters place Oklahoma State 4th, they would need 65 voters placing them over Bama, not 60.
Final results in that case:
....................Computers.....Coaches....Harri s.... Total
Alabama............... .930...... .9485...... .9391......93920
Oklahoma State..... .950...... .9268...... .9409.... .93923
Bottom line, minimum 60 voters out of 115 need to put Oklahoma State #2 over Bama, and as many as 65 may need to based on Okie State being placed 4th on some ballots.
Again, only if Wolfe goes to Alabama, which I think is the case with all the chatter.
If Wolfe goes to Okie State, the range of 2nd place votes is only 32-37 votes for Okie State out of 115, given that some ballots may have them #4 as well.
This post was edited on 12/4/11 at 4:19 pm
Posted on 12/4/11 at 4:06 pm to 7thWardTiger
quote:
Looking more and more like OSU will not be a unanimious #2 in the comp polls.
Huh? Bama has confirmed number 2 in 2 polls already amirite?
Posted on 12/4/11 at 4:07 pm to islstl
quote:
60 of 115 Harris Poll voters would have to vote for Oklahoma State over Alabama and not place them below #3 on any ballot. Be aware 7 coaches voted Oklahoma State #4 behind Stanford most likely. As many as 98 Harris voters had Oklahoma State behind Stanford coming into this week. For every two 4th place votes, they need another 2nd place vote switch with Bama. So if 10 voters place Oklahoma State 4th, they would need 65 voters placing them over Bama, not 60.
I'm thinking the Harris might have more crazy manipulation than the Coaches.
Bama might even get some #4s.
Posted on 12/4/11 at 4:07 pm to LSUzealot
quote:confirmed #2 in one poll, widely speculated to be #2 in a second.
Huh? Bama has confirmed number 2 in 2 polls already amirite?
Posted on 12/4/11 at 4:08 pm to 7thWardTiger
If Wolfe truly uses the previous season's rankings as part of his formula, then he is a fricking moron. There is absolutely no justification for that, none whatsoever.
The teams this year have nothing to do with the previous year's teams.
The teams this year have nothing to do with the previous year's teams.
Posted on 12/4/11 at 4:08 pm to baytiger
Is the only thing preventing voters in either the Harris or Coaches from voting "their team" (OSU or Bama) as #1 or #2 and the other dead last as a way to game the system?
Because that is what I would do.
ETA: completely wrong thread but I guess it has as good of a chance being answered here as any.
Because that is what I would do.
ETA: completely wrong thread but I guess it has as good of a chance being answered here as any.
This post was edited on 12/4/11 at 4:10 pm
Posted on 12/4/11 at 4:10 pm to Geaux2002
quote:Pretty sure that's a clear cut guideline that a BCS computer ranking can't follow... they can't use MOV, preseason rankings, last year's rankings, etc.
If Wolfe truly uses the previous season's rankings as part of his formula, then he is a fricking moron. There is absolutely no justification for that, none whatsoever.
Posted on 12/4/11 at 4:13 pm to Geaux2002
quote:
If Wolfe truly uses the previous season's rankings as part of his formula, then he is a fricking moron. There is absolutely no justification for that, none whatsoever.
Yeah, this part makes no sense
Posted on 12/4/11 at 4:17 pm to baytiger
Some of them using a preseason rating to get meaningful results early on, but abandon it later (Sagarin does this)
Billingsly absolutely uses a preseason poll (his poll from the previous year) and it makes a difference.
Not sure what Wolfe does
Billingsly absolutely uses a preseason poll (his poll from the previous year) and it makes a difference.
Not sure what Wolfe does
Posted on 12/4/11 at 4:18 pm to lsumatt
quote:not sure how that fits with the Chess model. Everyone should start at the same point for that model to work.
abandon it later (Sagarin does this
Posted on 12/4/11 at 4:21 pm to Tigah in the ATL
All of this math is making my frickin head hurt. If I want to see this many numbers I would go back to grad school and become a damn accountant. Please make it stop!!!! The BCS is horseshite and everyone knows this MAN
Posted on 12/4/11 at 4:23 pm to baytiger
quote:
confirmed #2 in one poll, widely speculated to be #2 in a second.
Then why is 7wt indicating otherwise with his prediction?
Posted on 12/4/11 at 4:24 pm to LSUzealot
he's predicting the computer poll results as well
Posted on 12/4/11 at 4:26 pm to lsumatt
quote:
Billingsly absolutely uses a preseason poll (his poll from the previous year) and it makes a difference.
quote:
Billingsly absolutely uses a preseason poll (his poll from the previous year) and it makes a difference.
Which in and of itself is absurd.
Posted on 12/4/11 at 4:26 pm to 7thWardTiger
quote:
its been rumored for years that he bases a point value to every FBS team based on last years finish. For example, beating auburn got lsu 120 points, and beating Oregon 118(finished 3rd last year)
well that is fricking retarded
This post was edited on 12/4/11 at 4:27 pm
Posted on 12/4/11 at 4:28 pm to SPEEDY
quote:
well that is fricking retarded
I was dumb to how this worked before this weekend, but this shows how truly messed up this system is. What a damn joke.
Posted on 12/4/11 at 4:32 pm to MoreOrLes
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