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re: LSU betting line is ENORMOUS.

Posted on 9/19/23 at 8:56 am to
Posted by jp4lsu
Member since Sep 2016
5911 posts
Posted on 9/19/23 at 8:56 am to
I think with the big spread, it is natural to kind of back off and get a little complacent, especially after the really good showing against MSU.
It is up to coaches to praise in the film room but also be critical and continue the push to perfection and get them fired up to dominate ARK and not sleep on them.
Posted by tigerfoot
Alexandria
Member since Sep 2006
59047 posts
Posted on 9/19/23 at 9:04 am to
quote:

We are legitimately -1100 on the ML. Is Arkansas this bad? I know they aren’t good but that seems ridiculous.

Most folks around the country think LSU is really good and Arky is really bad. This is a home game.

I have seen so many games be close between bad Arky teams and good LSU teams that I would have a hard time betting on us. But the general public is not so emotional.
Posted by broadhead
Member since Oct 2014
2387 posts
Posted on 9/19/23 at 9:13 am to
This thread will be great to come back to after the game. SEC game with -17. No thanks.
Posted by Billy Blanks
Member since Dec 2021
4765 posts
Posted on 9/19/23 at 9:59 am to
quote:

This thread will be great to come back to after the game. SEC game with -17. No thanks.




It's the worst offensive line we've had in most Hog fans' lifetime. By far the worst line under Pitt.
Posted by Dizz
Member since May 2008
15570 posts
Posted on 9/19/23 at 10:04 am to
quote:

we NEVER blow them out


2019 56-20
2017 33-10
2016 38-10

I would beg to differ.
Posted by Alt26
Member since Mar 2010
32134 posts
Posted on 9/19/23 at 10:07 am to
quote:

They just lost to BYU who are 9 point underdogs to KANSAS


Kansas is a solid team and the game is in Lawrence. If you throw in the usual 3 point bump for homefield advantage, KU is favored by a TD. That's not outrageous.

17.5 is a pretty big number. Even with LSU at home.

Georgia was a 27 point favorite over S. Carolina....they won by 14

FSU -25.5 vs. BC...won by 2

Hell, even Colorado was a 23 point favorite over CSU...won by 8...in OT

Yes, LSU looked great on Saturday. But I don't think it's unrealistic to say that is the very best LSU has played under BK. Maybe (hopefully) that is the springboard to great play the rest of the season. But it also could be an outlier. LSU was playing pretty well last year when they showed up in Fayetteville as a 6 point favorite and escaped with a 3 point win over Arkansas with a backup QB.

I think LSU wins. I think they win by double-digits. But I haven't seen enough of this LSU team yet to trust they will cover a 17.5 number. If they throttle Arkansas like they throttled Miss. St then I'll start to trust those big lines a bit more.
Posted by nealnan8
Atlanta
Member since Oct 2016
2893 posts
Posted on 9/19/23 at 10:21 am to
It's due to this:
Last week on the road, LSU played it's most complete game
since BAMA from last year.
J. D. coming off his best game as a Tiger.
LSU returns to Tiger Stadium for it's first SEC night game
this year. Stadium will be lit!.
Defense coming off it's best game in years.
Our strength (offense) vs their weakness (defense)
Posted by WDAIII
Member since Aug 2020
4205 posts
Posted on 9/19/23 at 10:29 am to
Don't underestimate Arkansas. But for Perkins going superman mode they beat us last year
Posted by WaterLink
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2015
19692 posts
Posted on 9/19/23 at 11:20 am to
quote:

2019 56-20
2017 33-10
2016 38-10



2019 was well...2019. 2016 and 2017 Arkansas was in the tail end of the Bert years and he got fired in 17. I don't think this year's Arkansas is a bad as they were back then.

Are we sure BYU isn't a good team? It's not like they're strangers to being good and beating P5 teams before and they've sent a lot of people to the NFL in their history. I think it's kind of strange to overreact to that loss like it suddenly means Arkansas is trash.

I think we'll win but idk if I'd touch that line.
Posted by Hot Carl
Prayers up for 3
Member since Dec 2005
61226 posts
Posted on 9/19/23 at 11:49 am to
quote:

I think it's kind of strange to overreact to that loss like it suddenly means Arkansas is trash.


It’s only strange when you look at the score in a vacuum. I watched some of the game, and their OL is bad, really bad. But mostly, I’ve just listened to a lot of their own fans who are resigned to having a bad team and bad season. They’re banged up on the OL, their best player besides KJ is out (Sanders, the RB), and they don’t have many—if any—real playmakers at WR.

They’re a proud program with a good, veteran QB. I expect them to come out fired up. But if we start fast again and the Tiger Stadium crowd gets into it and stays into it? I think they could be done by halftime. That BYU loss had to brutal psychologically. They’ve got LSU in Baton Rouge Saturday, then A&M in Arlington the next week and are staring 3 losses before October right in the face.

quote:

I think we'll win but idk if I'd touch that line.


Oh, I wouldn’t either. Still way too small a sample size for either team to be comfortable with that number in an SEC game. But objectively, I think it’s more likely to look more like last week in Starkville than last year in Fayetteville.
Posted by sportjunkie69
Member since Nov 2012
2234 posts
Posted on 9/19/23 at 3:16 pm to
Brad Davis got out just in time.
Posted by FightingTigers138
In your thoughts
Member since Dec 2016
5796 posts
Posted on 9/19/23 at 3:23 pm to
BYU has been a solid team for the last 4 years. Not sure why losing to them makes you "bad".
Posted by goatmilker
Castle Anthrax
Member since Feb 2009
70938 posts
Posted on 9/19/23 at 3:25 pm to
quote:

They just lost to BYU who are 9 point underdogs to KANSAS



Posted by Sissidog02
Member since Jan 2020
6224 posts
Posted on 9/19/23 at 4:20 pm to
They won’t roll over but it won’t be like last year, coming off Bama win, and playing in 36’ , Nth winds with an icy field. CBK gets them ready this time. They won’t roll over but they fixn get ROLLED OVER!
Posted by LSUtoBOOT
Member since Aug 2012
16663 posts
Posted on 9/19/23 at 5:11 pm to
Posted by DBG
vermont
Member since May 2004
75699 posts
Posted on 9/19/23 at 5:41 pm to
LSU is a very bad matchup for Arkansas.
Posted by Datbayoubengal
Port City
Member since Sep 2009
28071 posts
Posted on 9/19/23 at 8:26 pm to
quote:

Not really. They outgained BYU by like 150 yds and were driving for the tying score until the final second.

They just kept shooting themselves in the foot with 14 penalties and 2 turnovers. If they somehow clean up the mistakes, they could hang around.


No they can not. Arkansas's OL might be worse than Miss St. I mean that seriously too. BYU is not a good team just like Arizona wasn't a good team and Miss St damn near lost. They lack a run game and they are not a quick pass team. Going on the road after a loss like that is actually the worst thing you can do.
Posted by Datbayoubengal
Port City
Member since Sep 2009
28071 posts
Posted on 9/19/23 at 8:27 pm to
quote:

Team like that scares me because of the mobility of their QB
It is Arkansas and for some reason we NEVER blow them out
Blew them out 3 times from 2016-2019.
Posted by josh336
baton rouge
Member since Jan 2007
80405 posts
Posted on 9/19/23 at 8:54 pm to
quote:

Going on the road after a loss like that is actually the worst thing you can do.

False
See lsu at florida 2017 coming off loss to troy
Posted by tzimme4
Metairie
Member since Jan 2008
30267 posts
Posted on 9/19/23 at 9:01 pm to
quote:

We are legitimately -1100 on the ML

Anyone betting that and especially parlaying is making terrible gambling decisions.

The off chance LSU loses, you're losing your arse and your parlay. And -1100 does nothing to improve your parlay odds. Only way to bet this is spread or teasing.
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