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LSU -10 @ Kentucky
Posted on 10/5/26 at 12:41 pm
Posted on 10/5/26 at 12:41 pm
I am no expert, but I don't quite understand this line. Seems fishy. Kentucky has played pretty well, and it is a night game at home.
Posted on 10/5/26 at 12:41 pm to bayoubengal225
Maybe I have BK PTSD.
Posted on 10/5/26 at 12:43 pm to bayoubengal225
That's what they want you to think brotha
Posted on 10/5/26 at 12:43 pm to bayoubengal225
Look at the teams KY beat. Look at the game they lost by 28 points to bama. They are what they normally are. They have played some bad teams. If lsu plays decent to good ball, they will win.
Posted on 10/5/26 at 12:44 pm to Pedropatterstine
Hope you are right. I think its my PTSD !
Posted on 10/5/26 at 12:47 pm to bayoubengal225
Everyone thought Miss State +5.5 at home vs Bama was a steal too
Btw Bama was -9.5 @ Kentucky… won 45-17
Btw Bama was -9.5 @ Kentucky… won 45-17
This post was edited on 10/5/26 at 12:48 pm
Posted on 10/5/26 at 12:56 pm to bayoubengal225
LSU fans thought LSU being an 8.5 favorite over A&M was fishy too.
The simple reason that the oddsmakers don't think Kentucky is that good despite their record. Oddsmakers use data and formulas to set the lines. Not subjectivity and emotion.
For example, last week Mizzou opened as only a +2.5 underdog to Florida. Mizzou was coming off a loss to MSU, while Florida was coming off a blowout win vs. Ole Miss. The line was essentially begging the public to bet Florida to cover. The public did....and lost. Though to a lesser extent, that was the same for Ohio State @ Iowa. Iowa was a +14.5 home underdog. OSU won by 17...and the game wasn't really even that close.
Along those same lines the oddsmakers are begging the public to take UK to cover. It is not a perfect science, but often times when the oddsmakers are telling you something that subjectively doesn't seem to make sense, listen.
The simple reason that the oddsmakers don't think Kentucky is that good despite their record. Oddsmakers use data and formulas to set the lines. Not subjectivity and emotion.
For example, last week Mizzou opened as only a +2.5 underdog to Florida. Mizzou was coming off a loss to MSU, while Florida was coming off a blowout win vs. Ole Miss. The line was essentially begging the public to bet Florida to cover. The public did....and lost. Though to a lesser extent, that was the same for Ohio State @ Iowa. Iowa was a +14.5 home underdog. OSU won by 17...and the game wasn't really even that close.
Along those same lines the oddsmakers are begging the public to take UK to cover. It is not a perfect science, but often times when the oddsmakers are telling you something that subjectively doesn't seem to make sense, listen.
Posted on 10/5/26 at 12:57 pm to JimTiger72
Vegas only cares about green ,they are right more than they are wrong.They want Kentucky money big time hence the +10.
Posted on 10/5/26 at 1:02 pm to bayoubengal225
quote:What do you think it would be if the game was in Baton Rouge?
I am no expert, but I don't quite understand this line. Seems fishy.
Posted on 10/5/26 at 1:06 pm to Pedropatterstine
To me it’s begging the public to take Kentucky. Which is good for us
Posted on 10/5/26 at 1:10 pm to bayoubengal225
At OM Lane was
11-2 when favored between 5.5 and 10pts
9-1 when favored between 10.5 and 15.5 pts
11-2 when favored between 5.5 and 10pts
9-1 when favored between 10.5 and 15.5 pts
Posted on 10/5/26 at 1:11 pm to bayoubengal225
I think that line is fair, maybe even a little low.
Got to hope Stein has another rabbit in that hat.
As much as I love that we are 4-1, we beat 2 sec teams that aren't that good.
Got to hope Stein has another rabbit in that hat.
As much as I love that we are 4-1, we beat 2 sec teams that aren't that good.
Posted on 10/5/26 at 1:12 pm to bayoubengal225
LSU historically sucks in Lexington. Yeah I know take it for what its worth but the last two trips there were losses. Then the BG miracle which literally took a miracle to escape there. Year before that we win by 4 in final drive if I remember correctly. DiNardo's last year in 99 we get smoked. Mid 90s we took care of business with the exception of the infamous purple pants game in 95.
I just hate Lexington week because ive seen this movie before.
I just hate Lexington week because ive seen this movie before.
Posted on 10/5/26 at 1:12 pm to bayoubengal225
quote:
I am no expert, but I don't quite understand this line. Seems fishy. Kentucky has played pretty well, and it is a night game at home.
What do you think the line should be?
What was your expectation heading into A&M?
I think Vegas likes LSU a lot more than the pundits do.
Posted on 10/5/26 at 1:20 pm to Alt26
quote:
It is not a perfect science, but often times when the oddsmakers are telling you something that subjectively doesn't seem to make sense, listen.
This. The oddsmakers don't have the same PTSD bad beats and memories that we fans do, they only see the numbers.
Posted on 10/5/26 at 1:26 pm to Purple Spoon
quote:This movie theater has a new guy running the projector. We going to be fine.
I just hate Lexington week because ive seen this movie before.
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