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Let's Be Realistic About What This LSU Team Actually Is
Posted on 10/12/26 at 10:03 am
Posted on 10/12/26 at 10:03 am
I think some people need to take a realistic look at what this LSU team actually is in year one under Lane Kiffin.
First, we're talking about a program undergoing a complete culture change. Historically, teams going through major coaching transitions and roster overhauls often struggle in year one. Yeah, yeah, I know, Curt Cignetti. I got it. But that's an outlier, not the norm. Pointing to one exceptional turnaround doesn't suddenly make it the standard everyone else should be judged against.
Now, let's talk about this supposed "$50 million roster."
Based on published roster valuations, LSU's roster is estimated at approximately $42.77 million, with roughly $26.49 million tied to incoming transfers. The remaining $16.28 million is attributed to returning players and incoming freshmen.
That distinction matters. People throw around the $50 million number as if Lane went shopping with a blank check and assembled an NFL roster. That's not what happened. These are estimated player valuations, not confirmed payments, and a substantial portion of that value is tied to players already in the program.
Of the roughly $26.5 million in transfer valuations, a significant amount is concentrated in a handful of names: Sam Leavitt, Jordan Seaton, Princewill Umanmielen, Husan Longstreet, and Faheem Delane.
So what did we actually add?
An above-average quarterback. A pretty good offensive tackle. An elite edge rusher. A backup quarterback with future potential. A slightly above-average running back and some slightly above-average wide receivers.
Those are useful additions, but let's stop pretending they automatically make this an elite roster.
LSU brought in 43 transfers because it had to replace a massive portion of its team. That's not the same thing as adding 43 upgrades to an already loaded roster. And it wasn't exactly a historically great transfer class to choose from.
There is a big difference between rebuilding a roster and stacking a roster. LSU was doing much more of the former than the latter.
Now, criticism where it's deserved.
Lane Kiffin hasn't been above criticism. At times, his body language and demeanor make him look like a guy who regrets his decision and is struggling with the pressure. That's my perception, not something any of us can know for certain, but he needs to get that under control. He's the leader of this program, and how he carries himself matters.
And Blake Baker's defense? In my opinion, it has cost LSU both losses. That deserves serious scrutiny. You can acknowledge that this is a rebuilding year while still expecting the coaching staff to make adjustments and put players in positions to succeed.
But let's also acknowledge the injuries. This roster has been beaten up, including losing some of its most important players on both sides of the ball. That's a massive factor for a team that was already trying to establish chemistry, learn new systems, and build depth.
Here's my point:
Lane Kiffin didn't suddenly forget how to coach. LSU didn't magically become an elite roster because somebody attached a $50 million price tag to it. And a team undergoing this much change was never guaranteed to look like a finished product in October.
I expect this team to improve as the season progresses. I also expect some more bumps in the road. Both things can be true.
Hold the coaches accountable. Criticize bad performances. Demand improvement.
But keep some perspective.
The sky isn't falling. This is year one, not the finished product.
First, we're talking about a program undergoing a complete culture change. Historically, teams going through major coaching transitions and roster overhauls often struggle in year one. Yeah, yeah, I know, Curt Cignetti. I got it. But that's an outlier, not the norm. Pointing to one exceptional turnaround doesn't suddenly make it the standard everyone else should be judged against.
Now, let's talk about this supposed "$50 million roster."
Based on published roster valuations, LSU's roster is estimated at approximately $42.77 million, with roughly $26.49 million tied to incoming transfers. The remaining $16.28 million is attributed to returning players and incoming freshmen.
That distinction matters. People throw around the $50 million number as if Lane went shopping with a blank check and assembled an NFL roster. That's not what happened. These are estimated player valuations, not confirmed payments, and a substantial portion of that value is tied to players already in the program.
Of the roughly $26.5 million in transfer valuations, a significant amount is concentrated in a handful of names: Sam Leavitt, Jordan Seaton, Princewill Umanmielen, Husan Longstreet, and Faheem Delane.
So what did we actually add?
An above-average quarterback. A pretty good offensive tackle. An elite edge rusher. A backup quarterback with future potential. A slightly above-average running back and some slightly above-average wide receivers.
Those are useful additions, but let's stop pretending they automatically make this an elite roster.
LSU brought in 43 transfers because it had to replace a massive portion of its team. That's not the same thing as adding 43 upgrades to an already loaded roster. And it wasn't exactly a historically great transfer class to choose from.
There is a big difference between rebuilding a roster and stacking a roster. LSU was doing much more of the former than the latter.
Now, criticism where it's deserved.
Lane Kiffin hasn't been above criticism. At times, his body language and demeanor make him look like a guy who regrets his decision and is struggling with the pressure. That's my perception, not something any of us can know for certain, but he needs to get that under control. He's the leader of this program, and how he carries himself matters.
And Blake Baker's defense? In my opinion, it has cost LSU both losses. That deserves serious scrutiny. You can acknowledge that this is a rebuilding year while still expecting the coaching staff to make adjustments and put players in positions to succeed.
But let's also acknowledge the injuries. This roster has been beaten up, including losing some of its most important players on both sides of the ball. That's a massive factor for a team that was already trying to establish chemistry, learn new systems, and build depth.
Here's my point:
Lane Kiffin didn't suddenly forget how to coach. LSU didn't magically become an elite roster because somebody attached a $50 million price tag to it. And a team undergoing this much change was never guaranteed to look like a finished product in October.
I expect this team to improve as the season progresses. I also expect some more bumps in the road. Both things can be true.
Hold the coaches accountable. Criticize bad performances. Demand improvement.
But keep some perspective.
The sky isn't falling. This is year one, not the finished product.
Posted on 10/12/26 at 10:05 am to GeauxldEye
quote:
Now, let's talk about this supposed "$50 million roster."
The Sky screamers changing it from 40 to 50 million during the game cracked me up
Good post btw
This post was edited on 10/12/26 at 10:06 am
Posted on 10/12/26 at 10:05 am to GeauxldEye
Great assessment, after ole miss I adjusted my outlook to 9-3 and think that’s still possible.
Posted on 10/12/26 at 10:07 am to GeauxldEye
3 things happened on Saturday.
1) we played and executed poorly
2) a couple of questionable tactical and gameplan decisions from otherwise good coaches
3) the refs were bad and there were many situations where their bad calls went against us (tush push TD, OT false start, no call on multiple blocks in the back on the punt return TD, to name a few)
if we play and execute better, then 2 and 3 dont matter as much.
1) we played and executed poorly
2) a couple of questionable tactical and gameplan decisions from otherwise good coaches
3) the refs were bad and there were many situations where their bad calls went against us (tush push TD, OT false start, no call on multiple blocks in the back on the punt return TD, to name a few)
if we play and execute better, then 2 and 3 dont matter as much.
Posted on 10/12/26 at 10:08 am to GeauxldEye
Good post. The only thing I disagree with is calling Seaton "pretty good". He's an elite LT.
Posted on 10/12/26 at 10:10 am to Tiger Voodoo
quote:
The Sky screamers changing it from 40 to 50 million during the game cracked me up
I laughed at this also.
Posted on 10/12/26 at 10:14 am to GeauxldEye
Appreciate the write up. We just live in this click bait social media world where if you don't win ASAP fire everyone
Posted on 10/12/26 at 10:18 am to GeauxldEye
I asked yesterday how we hold coaches and players accountable. I got called a whiny fan. Yeah.
Posted on 10/12/26 at 10:22 am to DUKE87
Whiny bitch would be more appropriate
No offense
No offense
Posted on 10/12/26 at 10:24 am to Sun God
You’re a child with your mom’s phone arent you?
Posted on 10/12/26 at 10:24 am to GeauxldEye
I predicted 9-3 before season.
So with the UK loss ... 8-4??
So with the UK loss ... 8-4??
Posted on 10/12/26 at 10:26 am to GeauxldEye
Yeah, I'm firmly in the middle of the miserable pessimist/sunshine pumper spectrum.
Gotta take this team for who they are, and that's a team good enough to compete with anyone but also lacks the killer instinct and is prone to game breaking errors.
If they can win the next 2 and go into bama with only these losses, I'll be pleased that we made it interesting again.
9-3 would be a huge win at this point, IMO.
Gotta take this team for who they are, and that's a team good enough to compete with anyone but also lacks the killer instinct and is prone to game breaking errors.
If they can win the next 2 and go into bama with only these losses, I'll be pleased that we made it interesting again.
9-3 would be a huge win at this point, IMO.
Posted on 10/12/26 at 10:29 am to GeauxldEye
It's hard to blame the "change" factor in modern college football given that annual total roster shakeup is exactly how Lane Kiffin does business.
Kiffin's most elite roster at Ole Miss was 2024, when he completely overhauled both sides of the ball outside of QB. That team went 10-3 with losses to Kentucky, LSU, and Florida. Last season Kiffin again overhauled the Ole Miss roster and coasted through a weak SEC schedule, losing to the only elite team they played, Georgia.
Kiffin overhauled LSU's roster and he will completely change this roster after that, even if Leavitt returns. Then he will completely change it again.
Lane Kiffin's "football culture" is constant change and offensive ingenuity and aggressiveness. He abandoned the last two when he punted on 4th and 1 from the LSU 43 with a chance to ice the game.
Kiffin's most elite roster at Ole Miss was 2024, when he completely overhauled both sides of the ball outside of QB. That team went 10-3 with losses to Kentucky, LSU, and Florida. Last season Kiffin again overhauled the Ole Miss roster and coasted through a weak SEC schedule, losing to the only elite team they played, Georgia.
Kiffin overhauled LSU's roster and he will completely change this roster after that, even if Leavitt returns. Then he will completely change it again.
Lane Kiffin's "football culture" is constant change and offensive ingenuity and aggressiveness. He abandoned the last two when he punted on 4th and 1 from the LSU 43 with a chance to ice the game.
Posted on 10/12/26 at 10:30 am to cajuntiger85
We can play better, but it might not result in enough improvement to overcome increased SEC Ref game-outcome-manipulation. We have two games to play against teams from the state of Alabama and the opponents we are about to face are an upgrade to what's now in the books for this season.
Posted on 10/12/26 at 10:30 am to GeauxldEye
quote:
The sky isn't falling. This is year one, not the finished product.
Always next year eh? The sky is absolutely falling on this year! You know, the only one that matters today. So have fun, print your "finished product champions" shirts for 2 years from now.
Big money is paid to coaches and players. Thats NOT expected to have to wait years for success.
LSU, unfortunately, has leadership problems. On the field now, and on the sidelines. Yeah, I know its not popular to say, but you all know it.
The last play Saturday night was an absolute mental breakdown FROM THE COACHES. Baker shits the bed too often. His performance wont improve thru off season weights and conditioning.
Understand what im saying, there was NO DOUBT that Kentucky would go for 2 if the chance arrived. It was discussed on the broadcast even.
And THAT call at the end, was Bakers best? Wow
Posted on 10/12/26 at 10:38 am to mikedatyger
But But $50 million roster!! But But $90 million HC. It gets old. Also throw in the fact your starting QB didn't play for 9 months and was coming off surgery and missed spring. All of that matters. He is still a work in progress and although has shown an improvement in the passing a game he still needs to get his decision making at an elite level. Not there yet but doesn't mean he can't get there. Question is will it be this year or next. I still would be disappointed in an 8-4 season but 9-3 is reasonable but what makes that harder is knowing we could have won the OM and Ky games. It's about the big picture for me. If we are still having these issues in year 3 then yes we have a problem but I don't anticipate that being the case. Give Kiffen another year to build some depth and experience with this group and the new transfers he brings in and I think we will start to see the beginnings of a championship program.
Posted on 10/12/26 at 10:41 am to GeauxldEye
This one really stung, it felt like the win was given away. Hopefully Lane and the other coaches take the lessons to heart. He does look like he’s feeling the pressure, that is a concern going forward. But the sky is not falling. Leavitt needs intensive coaching regarding protecting the football. Blaker can’t be trusted to get the game winning stop. Adjustments need to be made accordingly.
Posted on 10/12/26 at 10:42 am to GeauxldEye
Everyone is pouring on Baker but he didn’t cause the 2 back breaking turnovers, the special teams punt return that should have been a penalty…we still had 5 guys that missed tackles that should have made them, and all the drops by receivers. Those were the difference in the game. Those handful of plays had more impact than the defense playing a little below their potential. All of those things put the defense in a bad spot time after time. If one of those is eliminated we win a tough SEC road game.
Posted on 10/12/26 at 10:43 am to mcspufftiger7
I think the expectations got out of hand after the Clemson game and the way the defense has played at times. The defense play calling is mind boggling at times, like the first half against Ole Miss. But like you said, the frustration is that we lost 2 games we should have won and that deserves some critisim.

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