re: Kenpom predicts 3 conference wins for mens hoops

After seeing them play, it’s not an unreasonable estimate , but hoping for some growth that will lead to a run towards the back end of the schedule

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247 had LSU as the 16th ranked recruiting class last year which was incredible considering the circumstances. Still, we had almost zero returning offensive production from last year and a whole group of guys getting to know how to play together. So that's not an easy task.

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and we've got very little production from our freshmen this year so far - I think a bit more was expected.

If only the whole season was played in simulation mode. Injuries, slumps, illnesses all happen throughout the season. Let it play out and support the team throughout the season. Going into with no expectations can do wonders for the blood pressure.

I don't think a porno actor's assessment of a LSU Basketball Schedule carries much weight.

The SEC has some good teams at the top but the middle and bottom is no different than LSU. There are more than 3 wins to be had.

It says 6-12 at the bottom even though it only shows 3 Ws though. Which makes a little more sense considering the state of the middle and bottom of the SEC.

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This is categorically a false message. It is not a “total rebuild” and I wish people would stop this messaging

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Agreed 100%.

A "total rebuild" year was Johnny Jones's and Wades first seasons. Essentially you have less than the amount of scholarship players allotted. You are having to take fliers on JC guys and rely on true freshmen.

THIS team is not that. There are 3 upperclassmen transfers from arguably the best mid-major team last season. The highly recruited from last year's LSU team. 3 top 100 Freshmen. And two other power conf. programs.


Now, I do think McMahon deserves from patience from the fanbase. This is a new coaching staff taking on an (almost) completely new roster. It has taken some time to figure out what works and what doesn't. You have seen growth and improvement. The fouls and turnovers (minus last game) are way down from the beginning of the season. They seem to have settled on a starting 5 with Hayes and Fountain playing well. The unexpected variable was their leading scorer (at the time), Miller, going into a horrible slump. How much better would some of these results look if Miller was jut putting up 10 a game (which would still be down from the 17 he was averaging before the slump)?

That said, if you are disappointed this team isn't competing at the top of the SEC with Tennessee, Arkansas, Kentucky, Alabama and Auburn, that's on YOU. This team was never expected to be in that strata. But if you compare LSU's results thus far with teams in that next 6-12 range it is more or less the same. Some good results. Some games against mid-majors that were far closer than expected. Some tough losses.

I thought LSU would be more efficient than they have been, so there is absolutely cause for concern. But I'm not ready to slot them at the bottom of the league before the first SEC game.

So which is it 3 or 6? You show 3 individual wins but the summary says 6-12 in SEC. If this computer program can't even add then why are we even looking at this? For sure we win 6 games and I hope 9.

Where can I bet the over on three conference games

Mwani and Williams were both highly recruited players from last years team.

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Miller is the only highly recruited player from last years team

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Wilkinson was a top 75 recruit. Williams was a top 60 recruit (and may have been higher in his original class had he not reclassified).

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And then you say a rebuild year is one in which you depend on freshmen but include our freshmen as a reason we should not be in a rebuild year.

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I didn't say LSU was dependent on this year's freshman class. Just that they were a part of the roster/rotation...which was essentially the case for Wade's last 4 teams. A rebuild year is one like in 2018 where you had freshmen like Waters, Rachal, Alexander who you HAD to get minutes from. This LSU isn't significantly reliant on minutes from the 3 freshmen. But they are highly recruited guys you hoped could contribute.

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So maybe not a complete rebuild year but certainly not a plethora of great players.

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Agreed. Which is why people writing the obituary for the team before the play even one second of SEC games is silly. I think they are good enough to steal a win or two against the top 1/3rd of the league (hopefully tonight). But there is no reason to think they can't compete nightly with teams 6-14...which is what was expected before the season.

I guess the point is if LSU finishes at near the bottom of the league then McMahon will deserve some criticism because this isn't a "bottom of the SEC" roster. The this is a "rebuilding" year excuse won't hold water.