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re: Is anyone a bit concerned about our hitting?

Posted on 5/13/13 at 9:26 pm to
Posted by Sasquatch Smash
Member since Nov 2007
25930 posts
Posted on 5/13/13 at 9:26 pm to
quote:

It's not arbitrary. The NCAA average of runs per game is roughly 5.4. Hits per game are roughly 10 (slightly more). Roughly a 2-1 ratio.


Go do the math for LSU's stats this season and drop this argument.
Posted by MOT
Member since Jul 2006
31129 posts
Posted on 5/13/13 at 9:32 pm to
quote:

That means the AVERAGE relationship between hits and runs is roughly 2:1, exactly what I opined.

So to do better than average -- say runs equaling about 60 percent of hits -- is far from asking too much.

And what would you say about numbers like 1.59:1 or 62.8%?
Posted by CourseyCorridor
Baton Rouge, La.
Member since May 2012
1996 posts
Posted on 5/13/13 at 10:23 pm to
quote:

Go do the math for LSU's stats this season and drop this argument.


And read my entire argument.

It's just a recent trend, not a season-long problem. My only concern is that it continues. It really goes back to the South Carolina weekend. Take away game 3 against Florida (18 runs, 19 hits) and here's the offense starting with game 2 against USC, when the trend started to show up:

2 runs on 14 hits
0 runs on 6 hits
7 runs on 15 hits
3 runs on 8 hits
5 runs on 9 hits
1 run on 5 hits
7 runs on 17 hits
2 runs on 8 hits

That's 27 runs on 82 hits.

So it's not just a one-weekend thing. The last three weeks, they've sort of struggled to take advantage of their hits. Plenty of hits, but not a whole lot of runs.

I understand they've been pitched to by some pretty good arms and that's part of it, but in a super regional and a regional they'll see quality arms too, and especially in Omaha.

This post was edited on 5/13/13 at 10:24 pm
Posted by Sasquatch Smash
Member since Nov 2007
25930 posts
Posted on 5/13/13 at 10:26 pm to
That's a better argument than just using the means of hits and runs, but you weren't doing that earlier.
Posted by MOT
Member since Jul 2006
31129 posts
Posted on 5/13/13 at 10:34 pm to
You're comparing a sample size of 16,000+ games to 8? And it's 8 because you removed the 9th game since it disagreed with your conclusion.

Posted by CourseyCorridor
Baton Rouge, La.
Member since May 2012
1996 posts
Posted on 5/13/13 at 11:31 pm to
quote:

You're comparing a sample size of 16,000+ games to 8? And it's 8 because you removed the 9th game since it disagreed with your conclusion.


Would it make you feel better if the sample size were reduced?

LSU averaged 7.13 runs (307 runs in 43 games) in the 43 games before the 9-game stretch I talked about. In the last nine (including the 18-run Florida game) they've averaged 5 runs a game (45 in 9 games).

In those first 43 games, LSU averaged 11.1 hits a game (478 hits in 43 games). In the last 9, they've averaged 11.2 hits (101 in 9 games).

So they are getting as many hits as they've been getting all year (actually, slightly more), but their runs a down by some 30 percent.

Does that adequately tell the story?

And, you'll notice that before the current slump, LSU was averaging 7 runs on 11 hits, a ratio of hits-to-runs much better than 2-to-1. Now, they are needing three hits to scratch a run. To get three hits in an inning, you need to bat .500. That's working way too hard to scratch a run.

Right now, they are playing like a basketball team that gets no transition baskets or a football team that only scores when it drives 15 plays and four first downs. Everything is too hard.

This post was edited on 5/14/13 at 12:16 am
Posted by tigernation56
im the woods
Member since Feb 2013
4997 posts
Posted on 5/14/13 at 4:10 am to
well maybe it's because we don't have a bona fide hitting coach in javi sanchez,just a jersey wearing idoit who can't coach hitters.
Posted by josh336
baton rouge
Member since Jan 2007
83256 posts
Posted on 5/14/13 at 6:38 am to
Lsu is 2nd in the SEC in almost every hitting category. Javi deserves at least a little credit for that
Posted by harry coleman beast
Left Field
Member since Aug 2008
52619 posts
Posted on 5/14/13 at 6:41 am to
Lots of retard in this thread.....
Posted by MOT
Member since Jul 2006
31129 posts
Posted on 5/14/13 at 6:49 am to
No, you people just don't understand what trends are. In LSU's first 51 games they averaged 6.86 runs per game but in the last game they only scored 2. That's a problem and will not get it done in the postseason.
Posted by harry coleman beast
Left Field
Member since Aug 2008
52619 posts
Posted on 5/14/13 at 6:56 am to
Posted by DrD
Houston
Member since Jan 2010
2774 posts
Posted on 5/14/13 at 7:41 am to
Just like last season if we don't get to Omaha it will be b/c of poor hitting. I hope the kids learned from last year. Way too many fly ball outs IMO. Would like to see the team manufacture runs with hit and run and bunting and sac fly outs when needed. We'll see. Right now LSU is right where they need to be. It's all about getting hot at the right time. Geaux Tigers!
Posted by tirebiter
7K R&G chile land aka SF
Member since Oct 2006
10998 posts
Posted on 5/14/13 at 12:53 pm to
quote:

According to the NCAA's 2012 stats, the average runs per game was about 5.4 runs per game. The average team batting average was .277, which, over the course of a 27-out game, equals between 10 and 11 hits a game.

That means the AVERAGE relationship between hits and runs is roughly 2:1, exactly what I opined.

So to do better than average -- say runs equaling about 60 percent of hits -- is far from asking too much.


The issue is you are lumping all D-I teams together and giving no credit to the caliber of pitching found in the SEC. The 2012 D-1 combined ERA was 4.50 from your link. 12 of 14 SEC teams in 2013 are south of 4.50, most are well south of it, and Arkie leads the country @ 1.87 and LSU third @ 2.38. Including A&M there are 7 SEC teams with 1.30 WHIP or lower and 10 SEC teams giving up 9 hits or less per game, it is not easy to get guys on base in these games, much less score 5 runs a game. I get as frustrated as the next person when LSU leads off with a double and doesn't even advance the runner to 3B, much less score, but shite happens facing well above average pitchers and defenses.

LINK

I am not going to spend time to micro-analyze the situation, but when SEC teams are pitching their 1's and 2's it is difficult to score runs unless an opposing pitcher has a singular poor outing or pitches well and has some bad fortune behind him, or occasionally a team may get red hot at the plate over a weekend due to matchups. LSU has made many a boneheaded base running mistake the last 4-weeks, but that seems little different than the last 3 seasons, and they will always get a team's best effort because of tradition and current rankings.

You might as well analyze the Braves current pitching which has gone from superb into the abyss in 4-weeks, they haven't forgotten how to pitch, they are just sucking hind tit teamwide at the moment.
This post was edited on 5/14/13 at 1:14 pm
Posted by Ignignot
Member since Mar 2009
18823 posts
Posted on 5/14/13 at 12:57 pm to
You're overanalyzing. Plain and simple this team has already proved enough and is just ready for regionals thus the slump.
This post was edited on 5/14/13 at 12:58 pm
Posted by redfish99
B.R.
Member since Aug 2007
19557 posts
Posted on 5/14/13 at 1:35 pm to
Timely hitting doesnt require everyone to hit 350.This will win the games you must have to move on. Get it you go forward, don't get it go home.
Posted by CourseyCorridor
Baton Rouge, La.
Member since May 2012
1996 posts
Posted on 5/14/13 at 2:58 pm to
Don't know why you are arguing either.

First 19 SEC games, LSU scored 6.4 runs and averaged 10.4 hits a game. Last 8 SEC games, they are averaging 4.8 runs on 10.8 hits.

Teams they played during the slump are a combined 1-game over .500 in SEC play and are 5th, 9th and 11th in the SEC in team ERA in SEC games only.

So no, they aren't performing against disproportionately talented pitching.

Hits up, runs down. Not getting clutch hits right now. That's the bottom line.

I don't even know why this is a discussion. It's obvious. Doesn't mean they are in trouble and won't break out of this mini-slump, but they have struggled to get clutch hits all May and going back into late April.



This post was edited on 5/14/13 at 2:59 pm
Posted by tirebiter
7K R&G chile land aka SF
Member since Oct 2006
10998 posts
Posted on 5/14/13 at 7:09 pm to
quote:

Hits up, runs down. Not getting clutch hits right now. That's the bottom line.


HRs have fallen off the chart after the first 15 SEC games. 16 HRs through first 15 SEC games, 4 in the last 12 games starting vs Bama, so down from 1.07/game to .36/game and that is with Jones picking up the pace. Boys need to pick the slugging back up if they are going to run the bases poorly and/or fail to advance runners. There is a saying that fast runners aren't always the best base stealers, but the speedy guys aren't the only guys getting caught. Maybe they are a little fatigued mentally, it's not like they don't have high aspirations, who knows.
Posted by im4LSU
Hattiesburg, MS
Member since Aug 2004
34513 posts
Posted on 5/14/13 at 8:12 pm to
Just making sure this thread is still here...
Posted by Dalosaqy
I can't quite re
Member since Dec 2007
13483 posts
Posted on 5/14/13 at 9:05 pm to
Those 11 runs tonight are mildly upsetting.
Posted by The Boat
Member since Oct 2008
177644 posts
Posted on 5/14/13 at 9:11 pm to
UNO has 7 wins..
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