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re: Into the wild (N2daWild) wild baseball predictions

Posted on 8/3/22 at 11:37 am to
Posted by MikeTheTiger71
Member since Dec 2021
4488 posts
Posted on 8/3/22 at 11:37 am to
That’s an assessment of his potential as an MLB player. The bar is much higher to play a key defensive position in the majors than it is in college. It’s highly unlikely Berry will end up playing 3B in the majors either, but he was serviceable there last year for LSU. I also doubt any professional scouting reports on Dugas would project him at 2B or 3B either.
Posted by GeauxJZK
Baton Rouge
Member since Mar 2017
1642 posts
Posted on 8/3/22 at 11:52 am to
quote:

if the rumors about Simon are true.


What are the rumors about Simon?
Posted by MOT
Member since Jul 2006
30983 posts
Posted on 8/3/22 at 11:54 am to
quote:

That’s an assessment of his potential as an MLB player.
Correct, and what part of that or his time at NC State indicates his hands and athleticism will surprise people? And what about his time at NC State indicates he will be serviceable at 3B?
Posted by Conman23
Erzberg Rodeo
Member since Mar 2021
2295 posts
Posted on 8/3/22 at 11:55 am to
Rumor is he's done with baseball due to injury.
Posted by MOT
Member since Jul 2006
30983 posts
Posted on 8/3/22 at 12:02 pm to
quote:

He doesn't have to move anyone out. To start it will likely be his job to lose from the beginning
It seems like he would really have to tear it up in the Fall for that to be the case. These 7 look to be pretty safe bets without regard to position and then you have the catcher position.

Crews
Morgan
White
Skenes
Thompson
Pearson
Dugas
Posted by MikeTheTiger71
Member since Dec 2021
4488 posts
Posted on 8/3/22 at 12:02 pm to
quote:

Correct, and what part of that or his time at NC State indicates his hands and athleticism will surprise people? And what about his time at NC State indicates he will be serviceable at 3B?


I’m not saying he will work out at 3B. You just seem convinced it’s not even worth giving him a look. Jay Johnson disagrees with you.
Posted by BayTiger13
Louisiana
Member since Feb 2022
2622 posts
Posted on 8/3/22 at 12:13 pm to
In that list only 2 are considered OF right now. So he wouldn't have to move any of them out. He will have to compete with Stevenson/Jobert/the other freshman OF. Quite honestly I think it is his spot to lose though. Stevenson and Jobert have to much swing and miss in their game.

Like I said though, all these conversations we are having and it will be likely at some point in the fall and spring we will all be correct. The lineup and who will be playing where will depend on who is hitting the ball come May.
Posted by Lester Earl
3rd Ward
Member since Nov 2003
290832 posts
Posted on 8/3/22 at 12:13 pm to
quote:

there are a lot more power hitters at 3B than 2B and a lot more 2B regarded as great defenders than 3B.


Yea, in 1980. That has changed as the game has evolved.


quote:

My question was why you would consider it preferable to weaken our defense at both 1B and 2B versus only 3B. Dugas at 2B, White at 1B and Morgan at OF puts three players in a spot that isn’t their optimal position


Because 1st base defense is about irrelevant as it can get as it pertains to baseball defense

Dugas will prob get first crack at 2B regardless, so let’s not pretend that is something odd.

And

Guidry > White at 3B
Morgan > Dugas/Pearson in LF

And the sum of having White at 1B doesn’t negate those switches
Posted by ell_13
Member since Apr 2013
87989 posts
Posted on 8/3/22 at 12:14 pm to
quote:

Because 1st base defense is about irrelevant as it can get as it pertains to baseball defense
Posted by Lester Earl
3rd Ward
Member since Nov 2003
290832 posts
Posted on 8/3/22 at 12:18 pm to
quote:

White will surprise people with his athleticism and hands. He will be fine at 3B


White, by position last season

DH: 33
1B: 13
3B: 8

There is a reason he didn’t play there much, just like there was a reason Jacob Berry didn’t either.


The question becomes does Jay Johnson want to accept poor defense head-on like he did last year, or does he want to put an optimal defensive lineup on the field most of the time.

His actions on in the transfer portal tells me he does not want a repeat of last year. His additions have not worked out with the guys opting to go pro. So it’s up to him if he wants to abandon that, but he was certainly chasing it.
Posted by MikeTheTiger71
Member since Dec 2021
4488 posts
Posted on 8/3/22 at 12:21 pm to
quote:

His actions on in the transfer portal tells me he does not want a repeat of last year.


His announcing White as a 3B transfer suggests otherwise.
Posted by Datsmoneydude
Member since Jun 2021
3411 posts
Posted on 8/3/22 at 12:21 pm to
Pitching will help the defense more this year. Hard to boot a ground ball when it’s a strikeout instead
Posted by ell_13
Member since Apr 2013
87989 posts
Posted on 8/3/22 at 12:23 pm to
Jays actions and how they pertain to white mean he is here to play 3B. No one seems to dispute that. Not shocked you would though.
Posted by Lester Earl
3rd Ward
Member since Nov 2003
290832 posts
Posted on 8/3/22 at 12:24 pm to
The position adjustment scale for all advanced baseball metrics have 1B well below every other position, in terms of impact.

For instance, this is the part of FanGraphs’ formula for defense that is built in for their WAR calculations.



quote:

Catcher: +12.5 runs (all are per 162 defensive games)
First Base: -12.5 runs
Second Base: +2.5 runs
Third Base: +2.5 runs
Shortstop: +7.5 runs
Left Field: -7.5 runs
Center Field: +2.5 runs
Right Field: -7.5 runs
Designated Hitter: -17.5 runs
Posted by DRock88
Member since Aug 2015
10702 posts
Posted on 8/3/22 at 12:26 pm to
quote:

His announcing White as a 3B transfer suggests otherwise.


Nothing to read into there. You have to list something. White was listed as an infielder at NC St. Jay also announced Carter Young as a transfer.

ETA: If he had been listed as a DH then played 3B, people would whine about that, too.
This post was edited on 8/3/22 at 12:33 pm
Posted by Lester Earl
3rd Ward
Member since Nov 2003
290832 posts
Posted on 8/3/22 at 12:26 pm to
quote:

His announcing White as a 3B transfer suggests otherwise.


Like Jacob Berry who was almost immediately moved into the OF last year?



Posted by DRock88
Member since Aug 2015
10702 posts
Posted on 8/3/22 at 12:30 pm to
quote:

Jays actions and how they pertain to white mean he is here to play 3B. No one seems to dispute that. Not shocked you would though.


Jay brought in Pineda and Young and told Dugas he'd have a shot at infield. How does that indicate that Jay brought White here to play 3B? It looks like White will probably have to get a look at 3B now, but what you're saying isn't true.
Posted by MikeTheTiger71
Member since Dec 2021
4488 posts
Posted on 8/3/22 at 12:33 pm to
quote:

Dugas will prob get first crack at 2B regardless, so let’s not pretend that is something odd.


I agree with you that Dugas is likely to start the year at 2B, but mostly because Guidry won’t be ready, not because Johnson plans to put Guidry or Thompson at 3B instead.

quote:


And Guidry > White at 3B Morgan > Dugas/Pearson in LF And the sum of having White at 1B doesn’t negate those switches


It’s also true that Guidry > Dugas at 2B so this really isn’t the full comparison of the alternatives. The question isn’t whether Guidry would be a better defensive option. In the scenarios in question, he’s either at 2B or 3B. The question is whether Dugas at 2B is so much better than White at 3B that it’s worth degrading 1B by moving Morgan out.
This post was edited on 8/3/22 at 12:34 pm
Posted by MikeTheTiger71
Member since Dec 2021
4488 posts
Posted on 8/3/22 at 12:36 pm to
quote:

You have to list something


You really think it’s difficult to list 3B/1B or Utility instead if those were his plans?
Posted by MikeTheTiger71
Member since Dec 2021
4488 posts
Posted on 8/3/22 at 12:39 pm to
quote:

Like Jacob Berry who was almost immediately moved into the OF last year?


He started at 3B and ended at 3B. That’s the point I am making. I’m quite sure Johnson will look at a lot of player combinations at 3B/2B/1B/LF/DH. There are a lot of players fighting for time. That doesn’t mean his first look isn’t White at 3B.
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