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re: Into the wild (N2daWild) wild baseball predictions
Posted on 8/3/22 at 7:06 pm to FriscoTiger
Posted on 8/3/22 at 7:06 pm to FriscoTiger
8 innings
0
Posted on 8/3/22 at 7:10 pm to MikeTheTiger71
quote:
Your assertion earlier that the relative defensive value of 3B and 2B have evolved over time is accurate. If those values change over time, they also change across playing levels.
Who’s to say they haven’t changed? I don’t understand what is hard to understand with what I said.
WAR is a relatively new stat, regardless. Even if you want to account for some deviation, those two positions are weighted quite similarly by people that know, study, & understand baseball,
Posted on 8/3/22 at 7:21 pm to MikeTheTiger71
quote:
That’s not what anyone is saying. The analogous argument would be if someone came on here and said Neal WASN’T going to play CATCHER and people disagreed with that. No one is saying they are only going to play one position. We’re simply arguing Johnson has a plan for their PRIMARY position. That doesn’t mean it will work out that way, but we have a pretty good idea what his plan is for now.
So, what he lists a guy as really doesn't matter. White may play 3B but that wasn't Jay's primary plan for him. He had brought in Pineda and Young, and gave Dugas an opening to play infield (and that's not including Thompson and Guidry in this discussion). Pineda was basically off the board when he listed White as 3B, but nothing else had really changed at that point to say White had to be his primary plan for 3B.
Posted on 8/3/22 at 7:32 pm to Lester Earl
quote:
Who’s to say they haven’t changed? I don’t understand what is hard to understand with what I said.
I was agreeing that they have changed over time. My point was that the context (era and college vs MLB) impacts those values, You seemed to be arguing that the values are set in stone and do not vary.
Posted on 8/3/22 at 7:37 pm to DRock88
quote:
So, what he lists a guy as really doesn't matter. White may play 3B but that wasn't Jay's primary plan for him. He had brought in Pineda and Young, and gave Dugas an opening to play infield (and that's not including Thompson and Guidry in this discussion). Pineda was basically off the board when he listed White as 3B, but nothing else had really changed at that point to say White had to be his primary plan for 3B.
Nothing in anything I saw suggested Dugas was going to primarily play infield. Johnson discussed it with him before Pineda and Young committed to play at LSU and before he knew Guidry would not be drafted. He knew there was a good chance they would be thin at MIF and that’s exactly what happened. That has zero to do with his plans for 3B or White. At this point, I suspect his plan is to play White primarily at 3B AND Dugas primarily at 2B unless/until Guidry earns his way into the lineup.
Posted on 8/3/22 at 7:47 pm to MikeTheTiger71
The values do not vary from level to level
What context changes that in your opinion?
From the most basic form of baseball, a 3B has to be able to reach 1B & have a good reaction time, for example.
What context changes that in your opinion?
From the most basic form of baseball, a 3B has to be able to reach 1B & have a good reaction time, for example.
Posted on 8/3/22 at 7:53 pm to Lester Earl
quote:
The values do not vary from level to level What context changes that in your opinion? From the most basic form of baseball, a 3B has to be able to reach 1B & have a good reaction time, for example.
It’s going to vary based on the preponderance of ground balls hit, the number of RH vs LH batters, the % of pull hitters, the average number of base runners, the percentage of fastballs thrown, etc. The particular argument I was responding to was about first base. I agree with ell that the defensive abilities of the other infielders is going to impact the relative value of defense at 1B.
Posted on 8/3/22 at 7:56 pm to MikeTheTiger71
If you think Jay's primary plan was to play Tommy White at 3B, then I can't really have a conversation with you. His primary plan was to improve the infield defense, which is why he went after Pineda and Young, and improve starting pitching (enter Skenes, Hurd, and Little). Tommy White was just a can't miss add to pick up the offensive slack from losing Jacob Berry, even if he was just a DH. If his primary plan was to play Tommy White at 3B, that's contrary to his other moves and means he really didn't care about infield defense. I think you're discounting how calculated Jay moves.
Posted on 8/3/22 at 8:00 pm to MikeTheTiger71
quote:
I agree with ell that the defensive abilities of the other infielders is going to impact the relative value of defense at 1B.
Sure, in a vacuum.
But not when you have 3 DHs that need to get into the field in order to be in your lineup. The most natural position to stick one of them is 1B.
Whether it be Skenes, or White. Both of who have experience at the position.
Posted on 8/3/22 at 8:14 pm to DRock88
His primary plan was to shore up the glaring positional weaknesses LSU had heading into next season. LSU lost starters at 2B and 3B and had no infield depth returning. If he had brought in light hitting, slick fielding infielders, I think you’d have a stronger argument. Instead he brought in the best all around MIFs. That shows no particular focus on defense or offense.
Besides, there’s no reason he couldn’t have been focused on improving defense at some positions while simultaneously replacing lost offensive production at others. I think he just brought in the best available players some of whom were naturally better defensively than what we had, but I see no contradiction even if he was shoring up MIF defense.
I think it’s patently absurd to think Johnson’s primary plan is to play White at 1B/DH. Given those were his primary positions this year, that’s how they would have listed him in the transfer announcement if that were the plan. The fact they listed him at a position he played only 6 times suggests a different plan. It’s also clear White transferred specifically to play 3B. Finally, when you have Skenes and Morgan, you don’t have a plan to play someone else primarily at DH/1B, especially when there is no other obvious choice at 3B.
Besides, there’s no reason he couldn’t have been focused on improving defense at some positions while simultaneously replacing lost offensive production at others. I think he just brought in the best available players some of whom were naturally better defensively than what we had, but I see no contradiction even if he was shoring up MIF defense.
I think it’s patently absurd to think Johnson’s primary plan is to play White at 1B/DH. Given those were his primary positions this year, that’s how they would have listed him in the transfer announcement if that were the plan. The fact they listed him at a position he played only 6 times suggests a different plan. It’s also clear White transferred specifically to play 3B. Finally, when you have Skenes and Morgan, you don’t have a plan to play someone else primarily at DH/1B, especially when there is no other obvious choice at 3B.
Posted on 8/3/22 at 8:19 pm to Lester Earl
quote:
But not when you have 3 DHs that need to get into the field in order to be in your lineup.
You keep saying that to bolster your argument but it just isn’t true. Dugas has primarily played OF in his career. He is not a DH. Again, in a vacuum, I agree it’s better to stick someone like White at 1B than 3B, but not when you have a great fielding 1B and no obvious alternatives at 3B. The same argument existed last season. Why was Berry at 3B instead of 1B?
Posted on 8/3/22 at 8:36 pm to MikeTheTiger71
Young didn't hit worth a damn last year. His hitting was a gamble (good upside) but he's a slick infielder, regardless.
Skenes came in way down the road. And, he will pitch one game, so the DH spot is open there unless he hits for himself.
You think NC State let White walk bc he wanted to play 3B and they wouldn't consider that?
Jay's primary plan wasn't to play White at 3B, and it won't be with Skenes. It's an option, no matter how he lists him. And, he may play 3B, but it won't be because that was Jay's plan from jump. It'll be because that's what is best now.
Skenes came in way down the road. And, he will pitch one game, so the DH spot is open there unless he hits for himself.
You think NC State let White walk bc he wanted to play 3B and they wouldn't consider that?
Jay's primary plan wasn't to play White at 3B, and it won't be with Skenes. It's an option, no matter how he lists him. And, he may play 3B, but it won't be because that was Jay's plan from jump. It'll be because that's what is best now.
Posted on 8/3/22 at 8:54 pm to DRock88
What we would do and what Jay might be two different things. Jay loves offense and that won't change. His background is as a hitting coach. To say he doesn't care about defense is ridiculous. He wants the best team possible. I'm just saying that if it is 50/50, he's going offense. Jones could hit 30 HRs if he has enough bats. Jay says he has a natural feel for hitting. If Jones can bat around. 270, I bet Jay finds away to play him. That's just an example but bats will dictate who plays. Jay isn't going to leave a sizzling bat on the bench.
Posted on 8/3/22 at 9:29 pm to DRock88
quote:
Young didn't hit worth a damn last year. His hitting was a gamble (good upside) but he's a slick infielder, regardless.
He also hit .300 as freshman and 16 HRs as a sophomore. For a SS, he has a good bat. Johnson did not bring him in expecting him to hit .207.
quote:
Skenes came in way down the road. And, he will pitch one game, so the DH spot is open there unless he hits for himself.
I’m sure he’ll play at least some DH and some 1B. I’ve said several times I expect a fair amount of experimentation to give multiple players playing opportunities and figure out the best combinations/platoons. That doesn’t change the primary plan.
quote:
And, he may play 3B, but it won't be because that was Jay's plan from jump. It'll be because that's what is best now.
What his plan was months ago is irrelevant to my arguments. I’ve always been focused on what Johnson’s plan is now. I don’t doubt that he had a number of contingencies in place when there were so many uncertainties about who would make it to campus. The point is that with who is on the roster now, the starting point is to have White at 3B. There is no other obvious choice there. He isn’t going to rely on Guidry being ready before he’s played an inning. Even if he does work his way into the lineup, it would still be cleaner to move Dugas back to the OF than to move multiple players around.
Posted on 8/3/22 at 9:38 pm to MikeTheTiger71
Then it wasn't Jay's primary plan to play White at 3B and it doesn't matter what he's listed as. Agreed.
Posted on 8/3/22 at 9:41 pm to DRock88
Yeah this whole primary/listed position nonsense started when he asked you if you were benching White or Skenes in your Dugas, Thompson, Guidry IF scenario, to which I replied one would simply play 1B and one would DH in that particular scenario. Then all hell broke loose when I dared to say White is a liability at 3B.
This post was edited on 8/3/22 at 9:42 pm
Posted on 8/3/22 at 9:46 pm to MikeTheTiger71
quote:
You keep saying that to bolster your argument but it just isn’t true. Dugas has primarily played OF in his career. He is not a DH
Dugas is a DH on a well balanced team. I am aware of what he has played in the past
quote:
The same argument existed last season. Why was Berry at 3B instead of 1B?
That’s your contention & example?
What happened on The worst defensive lsu team we’ve ever seen ?
Why would you want anything do with that model? It was a complete failure that they have desperately tried to fix
Posted on 8/3/22 at 10:04 pm to DRock88
quote:
Then it wasn't Jay's primary plan to play White at 3B and it doesn't matter what he's listed as. Agreed.
That’s not what I said. The announcement was just a few days ago, not a few months ago.
Posted on 8/3/22 at 10:17 pm to DRock88
I definitely think White wanted a payday that LSU Baseball could deliver and Nc State could not.
Posted on 8/3/22 at 10:17 pm to Lester Earl
quote:
That’s your contention & example? What happened on The worst defensive lsu team we’ve ever seen ? Why would you want anything do with that model? It was a complete failure that they have desperately tried to fix
Your contention was that the obvious choice is to hide a DH type player at 1B instead of 3B. Johnson didn’t do that last year. He could have played Cranford or Merrifield at 3B and moved Morgan to OF. He could have played Dugas at 2B/3B (before he was hurt) and moved Morgan to OF. He didn’t do any of those things. I don’t see the options being materially different this time around. Just substitute Guidry for Doughty at 2B and it’s pretty much the same situation. I see no reason to expect Johnson will decide differently this time around.
Now if your point is that Johnson should have had Dugas in the infield and Morgan in the OF last year, the question becomes whether Dugas really is that much of an upgrade defensively. I don’t know why we should assume that is true. In that case, we’re back to the question of whether it’s better to weaken both 2B and 1B defensively or just 3B. I think Johnson decided that correctly. He certainly knows his players’ abilities better than I do.
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