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re: I'm not as pessimistic as others, there are reasons why you wouldn't pitch Skenes today..
Posted on 6/3/23 at 12:34 pm to subotic
Posted on 6/3/23 at 12:34 pm to subotic
quote:
Of course I understand, I disliked the Skenes start myself. I guess I just don't possess the hubris to think my analysis must be correct because it's the popular opinion.
Hubris? Good grief
1
Posted on 6/3/23 at 12:38 pm to gabzooks
Is arrogance preferable?
Posted on 6/3/23 at 12:39 pm to subotic
quote:
Is arrogance preferable?
Nah
Both are silly
Posted on 6/3/23 at 12:39 pm to subotic
quote:
Well this is a flawed premise as this is not a computer simulation. Recent trends matter, such as OSU's top 2 arms being unavailable
LSU is going to see better arms today than it did against Tulane.
Posted on 6/3/23 at 12:40 pm to SammyTiger
quote:
who do you have as their most likely starts? I dont think they have anyone left who will go more than 2-3 innings.
Ferrer or AJ Lattery. Ferrer’s last 4 outings have been 4, 4, 5.1, and 3.1 IP, though he was more effective coming out of the pen than starting. Lattery did have trouble getting out of the 3rd inning in 3 of his last 4 starts, but he does have 4 outings of 4 IP (one 4.2) on the year. If I had to guess, I’d say they’d try to get 2-3 IP starting Lattery, go to Ferrer for 4-5 IP, then get 1-3 IP from Ian Lawson, Ryan Brown and AJ Hutcheson.
Posted on 6/3/23 at 12:40 pm to gabzooks
Silly/silliness would work there too actually. 
Posted on 6/3/23 at 12:46 pm to subotic
quote:
Personally I agree with you completely. But Jay deserves a pat on the arse if we advance 3-0.
I wouldn’t go so far as to think he deserves praise for the decision if it works out, but I also won’t continue holding it against him.
This post was edited on 6/3/23 at 12:48 pm
Posted on 6/3/23 at 12:47 pm to moneyg
Maybe so, but Carmouche fit the mold of an arm that could give our lineup trouble.
I'm sure Jay looked at OSU's staff in extreme depth as he clearly expected this matchup today. I am choosing to set aside my own bias and trust the coach we brought in to do this job until he gives me a reason not to.
Even if OSU beats us today, they are going to be very depleted going forward. That has to have played a part in the decision.
Believe it or not, LSU probably has the best and most battle tested remaining staff in this tournament even without Skenes.
I'm sure Jay looked at OSU's staff in extreme depth as he clearly expected this matchup today. I am choosing to set aside my own bias and trust the coach we brought in to do this job until he gives me a reason not to.
Even if OSU beats us today, they are going to be very depleted going forward. That has to have played a part in the decision.
Believe it or not, LSU probably has the best and most battle tested remaining staff in this tournament even without Skenes.
Posted on 6/3/23 at 12:49 pm to MikeTheTiger71
quote:
I wouldn’t go so far as to think he deserves praise for the decision of it works out, but I also won’t continue holding it against him.
This is crazy to me, but oh well.
Posted on 6/3/23 at 12:52 pm to subotic
Because he’d still feel that the initial decision wasn’t best but it all worked out in the end, so he moves on
This post was edited on 6/3/23 at 12:53 pm
Posted on 6/3/23 at 12:56 pm to GeauxxxTigers23
quote:
Oh, seems like you’d want you better pitcher going against the better hitting team.
Depends on how they chase high FBs that stay on plane. Floyd is BETTER than Skenes in the upper zone because of his spin rate.
Does the team hit ground balls on true curves or sliders? Who as the better change - hint Skenes has thrown 1 game this season where his change has brought swing and miss.
It is ABOUT MATCH-UPs.
Have you spent the hundreds of hours scouting each team and watched every singe AB of the team and the ABs of the r opponents here the team. Or are you just looking numbers from a stat sheet.
Go do some homework with splits and types of swings and misses of all the teams and bring back a report with every hitter broke down based on the pitcher and ball thrown and the hitters performance versus him.
Posted on 6/3/23 at 12:56 pm to subotic
quote:
subotic
You can’t see the forest through the trees.
Do you agree that the best strategy is one that gives LSU the best chance of going 2-0?
Do you agree that there is no advantage in the two ways you might get to 1-1? In other words losing game 1 vs losing game 2.
Do you think Oregon State with its staff as it sits today is a significantly better team than Tulane with its staff as it sat yesterday?
Do you agree that this LSU team, even more than most years needs to stay in the winners bracket due to lack of quality bullpen arms?
Posted on 6/3/23 at 12:58 pm to subotic
quote:
This is crazy to me, but oh well.
It obviously would depend somewhat on how the games played out, but I don’t think the decision to pitch Skenes made 3-0 unlikely, only less likely. As such, I would not consider 3-0 de facto proof of the soundness of the approach.
Posted on 6/3/23 at 1:02 pm to GoldenAge
Dude, no one on this board is saying we are doomed against OSU, I don’t understand why people like you keep saying that. OSU is a much better hitting team than Tulane. Tulane is actually an extremely bad team, OSU is not. You want your best pitcher going against the better teams. I really don’t understand how that concept is so hard to grasp for some people.
Posted on 6/3/23 at 1:11 pm to Tiger1988
quote:
It is ABOUT MATCH-UPs.
Skenes matches up better against every single team in the country better than Floyd. That’s just a fact.
That’s like saying OSU struggles to hit a curveball, so we are going to to start Bryce Collins because he has a better curveball that Floyd.
Posted on 6/3/23 at 1:23 pm to GeauxxxTigers23
quote:
OSU is a contact teams like TAMU meaning they will run his pitch count up.
quote:News flash! **AMBER ALERT** This little fella is lost and ended up in a baseball post. Someone please find him before Tacky Sweater does.
What does this even mean? They swing at the ball and put in play? News flash, everyone tries to do that
Posted on 6/3/23 at 1:42 pm to LSBoosie
quote:
Skenes matches up better against every single team in the country better than Floyd. That’s just a fact
No that is an opinion. Not a fact. Arky had Skenes at 88 pitches through 3.2 innings.
Last time Floyd faced Arky…
9 TY FLOYD 6.1 3 2 1 2 7 27 2.05
This post was edited on 6/3/23 at 1:43 pm
Posted on 6/3/23 at 1:47 pm to drizztiger
The LSU head baseball coach made a decision that would be very much in the minority, should all baseball coaches across America be polled for their opinion. We already have heard the media commentators, too. They disagree with the decision.
It's a steep hill to climb to convincingly argue that these folks are all wrong.
It's a steep hill to climb to convincingly argue that these folks are all wrong.
Posted on 6/3/23 at 1:47 pm to Tiger1988
quote:
Last time Floyd faced Arky… 9 TY FLOYD 6.1 3 2 1 2 7 27 2.05
And what were Skenes’ stats in that same series?
Posted on 6/3/23 at 1:51 pm to Tiger1988
quote:
Arky had Skenes at 88 pitches through 3.2 innings.
Last time Floyd faced Arky… 9 TY FLOYD 6.1 3 2 1 2 7 27 2.05
The lack of basic logic is quite amazing.
Do you really think that Floyd is a better matchup than Skenes?
Do you think pointing to a single outcome necessarily changes a future event?
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