re: I say we have a 45-50% chance of beating OU in Norman

LSU in a slugfest. We win the turnover battle and leave town with a 21-17 victory.

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TAMU beat Notre Dame by 1.....LSU lost by 24 to TAMU.....I dont know, man. If I were a betting man.... I would definitely take Oklahoma.

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Good thing the transitive property doesn’t apply in football

OU has had time scoring points. As always it's the race to 30. If we can ever actually do that we can win.

The old saying a choice between "Slim and None" and Slim just left town is appropriate. IMO. I hope I'm wrong.

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Good thing the transitive property doesn’t apply in football

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Wasn’t the whole premise of this thread based on how we each get played against Bama?

And what does “packages for Van Buren to stay ahead of schedule”‘mean? Like plays? Yes, I too, hope we have plays that keep us ahead of schedule.

We could beat OU, but the % sure as shite ain’t even close to 45-50%. It’s their Senior Day, they’ll probably have a playoff berth on the line, and that place will be absolutely rocking. We couldn’t avoid pre-snap penalties and burning unnecessary time outs last week AT HOME. Against the worst defense in the SEC.

Granted, it was an early game, with a smaller crowd, and not the typical advantage we get in Tiger Stadium. But it wasn’t a disadvantage. We sure as shite will be at a disadvantage playing at OU. That crowd, with that defense, is going to be an absolute nightmare for our OL, especially the tackles, and MVB the whole game, especially on 3rd and longs with their pass rush. It’s likely going to be a very long day for him.

They’ll have more tape on him, and have a full week to prepare a game plan with him as the starter. I just don’t see us moving the ball well at all. At least consistently. We’ll probably hit a few big plays, but we’re much more likely to give up 6 or 7 sacks with a couple of picks thrown in there that end drives and keep us out of the end zone and get absolutely shut down than we are of scoring 20+.

Which is what it will take. Mateer is really good, and is getting back to the guy he was earlier in the season with every passing week as his hand heals. I love our defense, but even with Whit back, I don’t think we can hold them to anywhere near what we’ll have to to come out with a win in that environment, under those circumstances.

It’s possible, but it’s more likely closer to a 10-15% chance than 40-50. It’s gonna take a Herculean effort by the whole team, playing our cleanest game of the season, and a ton of luck, just to keep it close going into the 4th quarter. Much more likely we keep it close for a quarter, maybe 2 at best, and they wind up pulling away and eventually running us off their field and we lose by 25-30 than it is we actually win.

Hell, I’m not sure we have much more than a 40-50% chance of beating Western Kentucky tomorrow night. Probably 60+ still, but I think we’re more likely to lose to WKU than we are of beating OU.

Tl;dr—your “transitive property doesn’t apply in football” comment is hypocritical and contradicts your OP and other posts in this thread. You underestimate just how bad Arkansas’ defense is, especially their rush defense. You underestimate how good OU is and the huge disadvantage playing at their place will be for our young OL and QB. We have the athletes to always have a puncher’s chance against anybody. But we will need just about everything to go our way, and the odds of that aren’t anywhere near 50%. They can play bad and still win. We could play great and still lose.

OU is 2nd in the country in sacks. That is a terrible matchup for us. IDC is Lamar Jackson was behind center. Our OL can't block an old lady.

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LSU in a slugfest. We win the turnover battle

We've created many turnovers, and failed to get even a 3 point score with great starting field position. Why would it be different?

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Every offensive drive is different. Not scoring on one doesn't mean you won't score on the next. Also, each turnover takes away a scoring opportunity for the other guys.

Blowed Out.

Did you see the end of the Notre dame game?