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re: Everybody realizes the OSU loss is a good thing, right?
Posted on 11/18/11 at 11:49 pm to lsumatt
Posted on 11/18/11 at 11:49 pm to lsumatt
quote:
fortunately for us, we go to the SECCG over Arky and Bama in a 3 way tie
assuming LSU and Bama are the top two BCS numbers.
If Arky is in the top two with us, we stay home. I cant imagine Arky isnt voted over us if they beat us the last week of the season
This post was edited on 11/18/11 at 11:50 pm
2
Posted on 11/18/11 at 11:49 pm to SouljaBreauxTellEm
quote:
LSU could actually afford a loss now.. right?
Let's not find out.
Posted on 11/18/11 at 11:49 pm to lsumatt
quote:
Because Ark's computer ranking <<<< LSU or Bama's. They would have to be the unanimous choice by the voters and that it isn't likely as long as they don't kill us.
I think it will depend on how far Ok st. drops. If Arkansas moves ahead of them, which is what I'm guessing, it will make it that much easier for Arkansas to jump us with a win. If we lose, sitting at 4 in the polls may be too much for our computer ranking to overcome.
This post was edited on 11/18/11 at 11:50 pm
Posted on 11/18/11 at 11:49 pm to ffishstik
quote:
Not necessarily. Depends on where they rank us
This. In fact, that is the other drawback to the OSU loss. If Arkansas wins this week, they'll move up a spot closer and close the margin of error.
I still think the voters drop LSU to 3 with a loss to Arkansas, which would still put LSU in.
Of course, I think LSU wins out and it's a moot point!!!
Posted on 11/18/11 at 11:50 pm to pensacola
If I understand it, with one loss, LSU will still end up either one or two in the computers. Nobody else seems to have the wins or SOS to pass LSU. That gives some cushion, and then it depends on how fractured the poll voters are, but it puts LSU in strong position. At least I think that is the implication of lsumatt's analysis.
Posted on 11/18/11 at 11:50 pm to TortiousTiger
quote:
If Arky is in the top two with us, we stay home.
Arky's computer score << LSU ans Bama
Posted on 11/18/11 at 11:51 pm to lsumatt
I know it's really difficult for 2 teams from the SEC to play in the BCS CG, (one from the west, one from the east) but 2 from the same division?
Seriously? You're better with this stuff than I am. How probable are the chances of that happening? I'm really asking.
Considering LSU does what it's been doing all season and wins the remaining games.
Asked this earlier. Thoughts?
Seriously? You're better with this stuff than I am. How probable are the chances of that happening? I'm really asking.
Considering LSU does what it's been doing all season and wins the remaining games.
Asked this earlier. Thoughts?
Posted on 11/18/11 at 11:51 pm to TortiousTiger
quote:
assuming LSU and Bama are the top two BCS numbers.
they will be
lsumatt is 100% right
we're an SECCG lock.
fun fact: bedlam winner still beats bama in the computers.. maybe not voters, but computers definitely (assuming OU>Baylor)
Posted on 11/18/11 at 11:52 pm to lsumatt
quote:
Arky's computer score << LSU ans Bama
For those of us who don't know jack about the computers, let's say Arky beats LSU by a TD, and the next day the coaches and harris polls have 1. Bama 2. Oregon 3. Arky 4. LSU...would the BCS have LSU above Arky once the computers are factored in?
Posted on 11/18/11 at 11:53 pm to lsumatt
quote:
Arky's computer score << LSU ans Bama
IMO, the polls will have Arky over LSU if they pull out the win.
If that will be enough to overcome the computer, I dont know, but I would think so.
Posted on 11/18/11 at 11:55 pm to lsumatt
quote:
Everybody realizes the OSU loss is a good thing, right?
Depends on how you define "good."
If you define good as being LSU making the BCSNCG, then it's excellent.
If you define good as the chance LSU has of winning the BCSNCG, I'd say that went down after tonite. We'll still be favored against anyone we play (maybe not Bama if that happened), but we would have curb stomped OSU.
Posted on 11/18/11 at 11:55 pm to medtiger
quote:
For those of us who don't know jack about the computers, let's say Arky beats LSU by a TD, and the next day the coaches and harris polls have 1. Bama 2. Oregon 3. Arky 4. LSU...would the BCS have LSU above Arky once the computers are factored in?
I'm with you. I don't know the mathematical formula, but this is the probable scenario if we lose. If they drop us to five below OU too, which would be very hard to believe, I wonder what would happen.
Posted on 11/18/11 at 11:55 pm to la_birdman
quote:
I know it's really difficult for 2 teams from the SEC to play in the BCS CG, (one from the west, one from the east) but 2 from the same division?
Its hard for a lot of reasons. 1) One spot is already taken by the conference champ, so the other team is fighting for only spot, 2) By not playing in the CG, Bama has one less game to improve their computer score, while teams like Oregon are playing a tough 13th game and 3) voters don't like it and will avoid it if there is another viable option.
But there isn't anything from keeping it from happening. I personally think Bama has a rematch shot, but it is still an uphill battle
Posted on 11/18/11 at 11:56 pm to TortiousTiger
quote:
IMO, the polls will have Arky over LSU if they pull out the win.
That may depend on how the votes are split. The effect of the human polls are somewhat diluted because the formula uses the number of votes at each rank, not the rank itself.
Posted on 11/18/11 at 11:57 pm to lsumatt
quote:
Its hard for a lot of reasons. 1) One spot is already taken by the conference champ, so the other team is fighting for only spot, 2) By not playing in the CG, Bama has one less game to improve their computer score, while teams like Oregon are playing a tough 13th game and 3) voters don't like it and will avoid it if there is another viable option.
But there isn't anything from keeping it from happening. I personally think Bama has a rematch shot, but it is still an uphill battle
Good read. Thanks. I read your projections in '07 and you were spot on that's why I wanted to see what you had to say about that. Appreciate the answer, sir!
Posted on 11/18/11 at 11:58 pm to la_birdman
quote:
Seriously? You're better with this stuff than I am. How probable are the chances of that happening? I'm really asking.
Well... it looks like they're about to be #1 and #2 on Sunday.
Posted on 11/19/11 at 12:00 am to Tiger Authority
quote:
If they drop us to five below OU too, which would be very hard to believe, I wonder what would happen.
The other scenario which I would really dread would be if they went:
1. Bama
2. Arky
3. Oregon
4. LSU
That would be tough to fathom since we beat Oregon pretty bad, but late season losses tend to really screw every team except 2007 LSU.
Posted on 11/19/11 at 12:01 am to TriumphTiger
doesnt really mean much though with bama having a bye championship game week.
they could be #2 for the rest of the regular season only to get jumped championship week.
they could be #2 for the rest of the regular season only to get jumped championship week.
Posted on 11/19/11 at 12:02 am to medtiger
quote:
The other scenario which I would really dread would be if they went:
1. Bama
2. Arky
3. Oregon
4. LSU
The scenario I gave is highly unlikely but this scenario I think is pretty much impossible.
Posted on 11/19/11 at 12:02 am to lsumatt
quote:
Right now, it looks very unlikely Arkansas passes LSU in the BCS with a win over LSU. If a bunch of other games go poorly, I may change my tune.
This.
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