ESPN 2021 MLB Mock Draft 1.0 (A couple of LSU guys)

Without knowing the full ins and outs of how MLB teams see highly injured prospects, I am still surprised to see Jaden Hill as a mocked 1st rounder. I would think no MLB team would want to spend their first pick on someone who basically has been an injured mess their entire college career.

Hill ain’t going in the first....

They are getting commitments from these kids in their fr and so year of high school
Still a lot of development can occur over that time so it's hard to project who blows up or doesn't

I was listening to a podcast the other day where they were talking about how disparate the opinions on guys are this year because of the pandemic induced lack of information. There isn't a lot of consensus after the first 3 or 4 players.

You can kind of see it in the various rankings too. BA, MLB, FanGraphs, and ESPN all have some wide ranges for particular players (FG hasn't updated lately though). It's due to them all having different industry sources valuing guys differently.

It's going to be an interesting draft. I think it will be more similar to last year in that if you get drafted, you sign. Maybe with some exceptions near the back end, but not many. Teams knowing their picks are going to be limited every year going forward are going to be shooting for higher percentages of signings and taking less flyers.

They also may be taking less raw, toolsy guys that need a ton of development. So JUCOs will be full of them.

Hoping we get lucky with Kudrna like OM did with Hoglund. Dude turned down 2 mil. Not saying it will, but it might.

Looks like we're going get some of the better positional players, but we need some of the arms to come!

quote:

---

Hill was a top-10 pick entering the year despite a short track record on the mound and some injuries. He was up-and-down with flashes of greatness this spring, then went down with Tommy John surgery. The lack of track record and polish puts him next to advanced high school pitchers, but the surgery timeline pushes Hill behind the top couple of prep arms. He also may land in the comp or early second round where a team can spread savings from their first pick, but I'd expect a bonus in line with the 15th to 25th overall pick (i.e. $3-4 million).

---

Good for him. I hope this is accurate.

I think we will get the three JUCO guys to campus.

As far as the HS ones, based on what I've been reading from the various publications, here is the order in likelihood of them not making it to campus:

Kudrna
Selvidge
Lansville
Taylor
Fontenot
Dutton

I could see anywhere from 2 to 4 of the 6 getting to campus.

But he's going to be the next talking point of "we recruit too many guys that go pro".

Even though a) that hasn't been that big an issue lately and b) sometimes guys just develop at the exact right time for the draft.

The eval on him was right. I imagine the coaches wish he wouldn't have popped like that until the fall of his freshman year.

The Fontenot I was referring to is the incoming recruit from Lafayette.

But Devin's draft stock probably hasn't materially changed. College relievers have to be OUTSTANDING to go early. He's not.