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Message
2
Posted on 11/17/10 at 9:04 pm to JawjaTigah
BTW I did just find that LSU would have to be a non-AQ for us to be picked for the Rose Bowl. srequires USCe to beat AU in the SECCG with AU still going to the NCG and USCe in the Sugar Bowl... then LSU could be picked up by the Rose Bowl.
Although, I'm not even sure if the BCS will allow 3 teams from the same division to play in 3 different bowls.
Lastly, this is the most unlikely of all but I've seen weirder things happen:
If Oregon is to lose and AU & LSU slide into #1 & #2 by some freak accident, then it is legal for us to rematch in the BCSNCG. There is no rule against this (that I see). Then that would put Bama in the Sugar Bowl as they will have beaten Arky and be the only other 3 loss SEC team.
I don't think this will happen but it is funny
to think about.
Although, I'm not even sure if the BCS will allow 3 teams from the same division to play in 3 different bowls.
Lastly, this is the most unlikely of all but I've seen weirder things happen:
If Oregon is to lose and AU & LSU slide into #1 & #2 by some freak accident, then it is legal for us to rematch in the BCSNCG. There is no rule against this (that I see). Then that would put Bama in the Sugar Bowl as they will have beaten Arky and be the only other 3 loss SEC team.
I don't think this will happen but it is funny
to think about.
Posted on 11/17/10 at 10:00 pm to The Boat
quote:
Going 11-1 pretty much locks LSU into a BCS bowl no matter what anyone's trying to say.
...in every scenario except where Auburn loses the SEC championship game.
Posted on 11/17/10 at 10:07 pm to SaleenFiend
quote:
BTW I did just find that LSU would have to be a non-AQ for us to be picked for the Rose Bowl
Non-AQ means not from a BCS conference. The Rose will have either TCU or Boise this year, no way around it unless both teams lose before the end of the year.
quote:
Although, I'm not even sure if the BCS will allow 3 teams from the same division to play in 3 different bowls.
No, only 2 teams from any 1 Conference can be in the BCS games.
Posted on 11/17/10 at 10:31 pm to RummelTiger
Well let me tell you what i think.Bad as i to say it pull for Auburn to play in the NC. Then we will go to the sugarbowl for sure.IF Auburn lost to ALA in a close game then wins the SECCHAMPIONSHIP game they could still play for it all because there not going to drop that much in the computers.BUT it will have to be a close game vs Ala.AUBURN wins out we are in the sugar for sure.UNLESS some of the other teams fall and thats not going to happen i dont think. 
Posted on 11/17/10 at 10:44 pm to SaleenFiend
quote:
quote:
Going 11-1 pretty much locks LSU into a BCS bowl no matter what anyone's trying to say.
...in every scenario except where Auburn loses the SEC championship game.
No because if LSU wins out and AU loses its last game (with or without Newton) LSU will very likely be above AU in final BCS standings. If we are in the top 4 then we get a BCS spot no matter what.
And if LSU and AU play in NCCG (extremely low chance), no other SEC team can be in the BCS (which would be wierd for the Sugar Bowl).
However, the BCS bowls showed they could be somewhat flexible with last years BSU/ TCU matchup.
The big wild card nobody is talking about is Nebraska. They are highly ranked with a conference championship against a potentially ranked team. They could leap over LSU with this even if LSU wins out.
Posted on 11/17/10 at 10:58 pm to rrbw
I hate to think it also, but our best result would be for AU to win out. If we take care of business, we will be in the Sugar Bowl. You have to give up on the NCG at this point. That would take even more of a miracle than in 07.
If Auburn loses the SECCG, I think we will be higher ranked than they will, and as long as a big ten team or Nebraska doesn't leapfrog us, we should be in a BCS game.
If Auburn loses to Bama and wins the SECCG, it will come down to the voters (and God knows what they'll do). I personally think in this case, AU and Oregon would play for the marbles and LSU would be in the Sugar.
It all comes down to us winning out but I don't see us falling lower than the Cap One or Peach.
If Auburn loses the SECCG, I think we will be higher ranked than they will, and as long as a big ten team or Nebraska doesn't leapfrog us, we should be in a BCS game.
If Auburn loses to Bama and wins the SECCG, it will come down to the voters (and God knows what they'll do). I personally think in this case, AU and Oregon would play for the marbles and LSU would be in the Sugar.
It all comes down to us winning out but I don't see us falling lower than the Cap One or Peach.
Posted on 11/17/10 at 11:08 pm to clamdip
quote:
I just want Florida to fall to Shreveport. That'd be cool.
Posted on 11/17/10 at 11:26 pm to Dro
Indy bowl doesn't have sec tie ins anymore
Posted on 11/18/10 at 12:00 am to LC4Tigers
I'd love to watch the bcs blow up 8f this happens:
LSU wins out
Aub beats bama, loses seccg
LSU jumps to 3 with Aub loss, Aub drops to 4th
USC automatic spot in Sugar
2 more SEC teams in top 4
A) Possible?
B) What happens?
Even flip flop Aub/LSU...how does that work? Would voters allow it?
LSU wins out
Aub beats bama, loses seccg
LSU jumps to 3 with Aub loss, Aub drops to 4th
USC automatic spot in Sugar
2 more SEC teams in top 4
A) Possible?
B) What happens?
Even flip flop Aub/LSU...how does that work? Would voters allow it?
Posted on 11/18/10 at 12:32 am to GRTiger
quote:
LSU jumps to 3 with Aub loss, Aub drops to 4th
Auburn has such a huge lead on LSU and everyone else in the computers that they would stay ahead of 11-1 LSU even if they lose to USCe.
quote:
Would voters allow it
It would come down to the voters as to who gets the 3rd/4th spot. Most people in this thread simply will not face the music regarding voters. IF Auburn would lose to USCe, the initial reaction of the voters is to drop them, which is almost assured. Now, if the Newton saga continues and is looking worse on 12/5/2010 when the voters turn in their ballots, there is a chance that Auburn will fall below LSU. HOWEVER, the vast majority of voters will most likely use this thought process:
1. Oregon
2. Boise/TCU
3. Boise/TCU
4. ???
You will likely have Nebraska at 12-1, Auburn at 12-1, LSU at 11-1, and Wisconsin at 11-1. It is highly improbable that any sane voter would put LSU ahead of a team that it lost to head to head, especially when that team finished 1st in LSU's division AND has 1 more win than LSU.
Let me say this as clear as possible: "If Auburn beats Bama but loses to USCe, they WILL stay ahead of LSU in the BCS computers by almost a full spot, at least. Take it to the bank."
Ok, with that said, LSU will have to have an edge on Auburn in the human polls of roughly "half" a spot, and that is simply unlikely. If it was week 9 and Auburn had just lost, yes, Auburn would fall below LSU. However, if Auburn drops the SEC CG, the final ballots will be the most scrutinized in history because they will ultimately decide what non-AQ team gets in out of Boise/TCU. Voters will not take it lightly.
With ALL of that being said, Nebraska winning out may give LSU the break they need. If Auburn loses the SEC CG and Nebraska wins out, Nebraska will give LSU a run for their money at the #2 spot in the computers. Also, they will probably get 70-80% of the 4th place votes in the polls being on a 7-game winning streak and winning the Big 12 CG. There is a decent chance that Nebraska could wedge itself into the #4 position in the BCS ahead of Auburn and LSU. That would remove the automatic berths from both teams. In that case, LSU will likely get the call over Auburn since history shows us the BCS bowls hardly ever choose the Conference CG loser if a similar alternative is available.
I hope that helps.
Posted on 11/18/10 at 12:36 am to slackster
quote:
Nebraska winning out may give LSU the break they need. If Auburn loses the SEC CG and Nebraska wins out, Nebraska will give LSU a run for their money at the #2 spot in the computers.
Here's what happens....
Aubbie loses to Cocky in the SECCG
Ducks fail to lick Beavers.
LSU-Nebraska play for the National Championship!
Posted on 11/18/10 at 12:42 am to Cussian
quote:
No because if LSU wins out and AU loses its last game (with or without Newton) LSU will very likely be above AU in final BCS standings.
Wishful thinking. See my post above.
quote:
If we are in the top 4 then we get a BCS spot no matter what.
Myth. Automatic berths are only extended to the #3 and #4 teams in the BCS under two conditions:
1) The 10 automatic berths have not been filled already. (Although HIGHLY unlikely, it can happen that all 10 are already filled)
2) #3 goes if there is a spot available, the team is from an AQ-conference, AND its conference does not already have two representatives. #4 only if #3 does not qualify, and then only under the same restrictions. (Lets say Boise is #2 and TCU is #3, TCU is NOT granted an automatic berth, and that berth is then given to #4 if #4 meets the criteria)
quote:
And if LSU and AU play in NCCG (extremely low chance), no other SEC team can be in the BCS (which would be wierd for the Sugar Bowl).
Once again, this seems true, but the BCS rules state otherwise. Although highly, highly, highly unlikely:
quote:
No more than two teams from a conference may be selected, regardless of whether they are automatic qualifiers or at-large selections, unless two non-champions from the same conference are ranked No. 1 and No. 2 in the final BCS Standings.
quote:
The big wild card nobody is talking about is Nebraska.
They are being discussed by anyone who is educated regarding the BCS.
Posted on 11/18/10 at 12:42 am to TX Tiger
quote:
Here's what happens....
Aubbie loses to Cocky in the SECCG
Ducks fail to lick Beavers.
LSU-Nebraska play for the National Championship!
Dear God, I wish it was that simple...
Posted on 11/18/10 at 12:46 am to OldManRiver
quote:
Sorry, but that's not a lock to happen. Remember back in 2003 when Oklahoma got drilled in the Big 12 title game and fell all the way from #1 to #3? If Auburn loses say 35-31 to USC in a great game, I could easily see them falling to just #4 in the human polls, which wouldn't be far enough for us to jump them in the BCS.
Certainly possible, but if LSU wins out, especially convincingly at Arkansas and Auburn loses to a 3 loss USCe team, and given the nature of the controversy surrounding Auburn, they would quite likely fall further than 4. Oklahoma in 2003, while illustrating what can happen is not typical. Oklahoma had been touted all season long as the greatest team ever (or pretty close to that). They received far more hype than Auburn has received. Auburn hasn't been no. 1 this season. Oklahoma was ranked no. 1 through the entire season until the loss in the Big 12 game. Up until that point, OU had played one game that was as close as one touchdown (Alabama, early in the season). Auburn has had several close games throughout the season. If they squeak by Bama and lose to USCe, they don't have the prior reputation of near invincibility that OU had built through the entire season. So I think that Auburn will fall more than two places if they lose to USCe. If they fall more than 2 places and LSU wins out, LSU will be at least in the 4 spot.
Posted on 11/18/10 at 12:49 am to OldManRiver
quote:
The Rose will have either TCU or Boise this year, no way around it unless both teams lose before the end of the year.
Actually, if Auburn stumbles in the SEC CG, there is a good chance one of those two teams would be in the NC. That would relieve the Rose Bowl of their commitment to a non-AQ this year and allow them to pick an at-large team to replace Oregon. However, LSU's chances of being that at-large are pitiful since the Rose has never passed on an available Pac 10/Big 10 team. Barring a Stanford loss or two, they would be a shoe-in if TCU or Boise is in the NC.
Posted on 11/18/10 at 12:49 am to moneyg
quote:
...in every scenario except where Auburn loses the SEC championship game.
I say that because Alabama will beat them.
Posted on 11/18/10 at 12:52 am to GRTiger
I think there's a bit of confusion about the BCS rules, as several overlap-
1) top 4 ranked teams go
2) only 2 teams from each conference
3) bowls with tie-ins get 1st choice to pick if they lose a team to the title game
4)tie-in bowls must choice a non AQ team to replace the team they lost to the title game, if available
From what I can figure, rules 2 and 4 trump rules 1 and 3; meaning:
1-2) teams ranked in the top 4 spots of the BCS go, up until there are 2 teams from 1 conference. Thus, if the SEC has SC (ranked low) winning, they go automatically. Then you can choose from (in theory) Auburn and LSU, but only one of those teams can go; EVEN IF the 3rd team is also top-4, they must be left out due to the 2-teams-per-conference rule. If LSU is top 4 and Auburn drops to 5 or lower, LSU is in automatically (and vice-versa).
3-4) If a team tied to a bowl (SEC-Sugar, etc) goes to the BCS title game, that bowl does get 1st pick to replace the conference tie-in, but they have to choose a non AQ (meaning NON-BCS conference team) if there is one eligible. So- Oregon at #1 is out of the Rose Bowl, thus the Rose gets to choose 1st- and must take the non-BCS team (Boise, TCU, and I think Notre Dame if they make it back to the bowls some day). I think only 1 non-BCS is MANDATORY, but I may be wrong. And there's the caveat- if TCU for example makes the title game, then you no longer have to take the non BCS team, because the mandatory 1 team is already in a bowl. (so in effect, the 1st bowl to lose their tie-in is forced to take the cinderella team unless they get to play for #1).
I think this effects the Rose worse than anyone else, because they have 2 tie-ins instead of just 1 like the Sugar- if Auburn is #1, I think the Sugar has to choose TCU, but then the open bid is free to go to anyone; thus they can choose LSU too.
If you know for sure anything different, please correct this- but I think that's the way things are. The "take the top 4" and "mandatory non BCS team" are pretty much the Rose's fault from 07, because the Rose took Illinois from the Big 10 instead of someone higher (Georgia) or at least with a decent record. The Sugar and Fiesta have played nice and taken small schools, and the Orange is trapped in hell with the ACC and/or Big East.
1) top 4 ranked teams go
2) only 2 teams from each conference
3) bowls with tie-ins get 1st choice to pick if they lose a team to the title game
4)tie-in bowls must choice a non AQ team to replace the team they lost to the title game, if available
From what I can figure, rules 2 and 4 trump rules 1 and 3; meaning:
1-2) teams ranked in the top 4 spots of the BCS go, up until there are 2 teams from 1 conference. Thus, if the SEC has SC (ranked low) winning, they go automatically. Then you can choose from (in theory) Auburn and LSU, but only one of those teams can go; EVEN IF the 3rd team is also top-4, they must be left out due to the 2-teams-per-conference rule. If LSU is top 4 and Auburn drops to 5 or lower, LSU is in automatically (and vice-versa).
3-4) If a team tied to a bowl (SEC-Sugar, etc) goes to the BCS title game, that bowl does get 1st pick to replace the conference tie-in, but they have to choose a non AQ (meaning NON-BCS conference team) if there is one eligible. So- Oregon at #1 is out of the Rose Bowl, thus the Rose gets to choose 1st- and must take the non-BCS team (Boise, TCU, and I think Notre Dame if they make it back to the bowls some day). I think only 1 non-BCS is MANDATORY, but I may be wrong. And there's the caveat- if TCU for example makes the title game, then you no longer have to take the non BCS team, because the mandatory 1 team is already in a bowl. (so in effect, the 1st bowl to lose their tie-in is forced to take the cinderella team unless they get to play for #1).
I think this effects the Rose worse than anyone else, because they have 2 tie-ins instead of just 1 like the Sugar- if Auburn is #1, I think the Sugar has to choose TCU, but then the open bid is free to go to anyone; thus they can choose LSU too.
If you know for sure anything different, please correct this- but I think that's the way things are. The "take the top 4" and "mandatory non BCS team" are pretty much the Rose's fault from 07, because the Rose took Illinois from the Big 10 instead of someone higher (Georgia) or at least with a decent record. The Sugar and Fiesta have played nice and taken small schools, and the Orange is trapped in hell with the ACC and/or Big East.
Posted on 11/18/10 at 12:53 am to JawjaTigah
quote:
Blows my mind why anybody would think Auburn is going to lose to SoCarolina.
It is crazy to think Auburn will lose to USCe. Who cares if SC was up by 6 headed into the 4th quarter, on the road. So what if SC had 4 turnovers to Auburn's 2. None of that matters right? No way SC can win on a neutral field in Atlanta.
Posted on 11/18/10 at 12:57 am to Scoob
so to point out from the stuff I listed above:
LSU could only go to the Rose if Oregon ends up facing TCU or Boise in the Title Game. AND based on the Rose's history of sticking with conference tie-ins (see Illinois), in that case, expect to see Stanford in the Rose instead.
LSU could only go to the Rose if Oregon ends up facing TCU or Boise in the Title Game. AND based on the Rose's history of sticking with conference tie-ins (see Illinois), in that case, expect to see Stanford in the Rose instead.
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