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re: Did I Hear Correctly When Mike S. Said That We Could Wind Up In...
Posted on 11/18/10 at 1:06 am to Scoob
Posted on 11/18/10 at 1:06 am to Scoob
quote:
LSU could only go to the Rose if Oregon ends up facing TCU or Boise in the Title Game. AND based on the Rose's history of sticking with conference tie-ins (see Illinois), in that case, expect to see Stanford in the Rose instead.
The Rose would likely favor another Pac 10 team, but if LSU is in the top 4, they will have to go somewhere. What is the picking order this year? Rose would get the pick a replacement team for the Pac-10 champion, that would come 1st I think. If they pick Stanford, who comes next Fiesta or Orange? Sugar theoretically could pick LSU to play USCe. Not likely, but possible if Auburn is below LSU.
2
Posted on 11/18/10 at 1:11 am to tigerinridgeland
quote:
they would quite likely fall further than 4
If it was Week 3. Or Week 10. But not Championship Week. I think people are discounting the scrutiny that will go into the final ballots should Auburn lose to USCe. There is a LARGE possibility that if Auburn loses the SEC CG, Boise/TCU will be in the NC against Oregon. The computers will be really close so it will come down to the polls. The real kicker in all of this is that whatever team gets left out at #3, Boise or TCU, does NOT get an automatic berth and would likely be headed to the Humanitarian Bowl (Boise) or the Las Vegas Bowl (TCU).
IF Auburn loses the SEC CG, the bowls would probably look just like this:
National Championship - #1 Oregon v. #2 Boise State
Rose Bowl - #6 Stanford (At-Large) v. #7 Wisconsin (Big 10 Champion)
Sugar Bowl - #11-ish South Carolina (SEC Champion) v. #8 Ohio State (At-large)
Orange Bowl - #4 Auburn (AQ) v. #12-ish Virginia Tech (ACC Champ)
Fiesta Bowl - #5 Nebraska (Big 12 Champ) v. #22 Pittsburgh (Big East Champ)
Humanitarian Bowl - #3 Boise State v. (NR) Norther Illinois
Boise/TCU will probably get royally fricked if Auburn loses the SEC CG.
Posted on 11/18/10 at 1:14 am to tigerinridgeland
Y'know, I hadn't thought about the Orange or Fiesta, but they've been stuck with some crappy teams recently. That may not be the case with a possible 11-1 Ohio St on the blocks, in an early preview against Nebraska. Think that's Fiesta. Orange, ya just don't know what to say.
I think if USC wins, either big or if Camgate gets much uglier, and LSU wins out, we may be the safer team to take over Auburn.
I think if USC wins, either big or if Camgate gets much uglier, and LSU wins out, we may be the safer team to take over Auburn.
Posted on 11/18/10 at 1:21 am to Scoob
quote:
If a team tied to a bowl (SEC-Sugar, etc) goes to the BCS title game, that bowl does get 1st pick to replace the conference tie-in, but they have to choose a non AQ (meaning NON-BCS conference team) if there is one eligible.
No. Let me help you out.
If a BCS Bowl loses a team to the NC, (Oregon/Rose and Auburn/Sugar at the moment), that team will be allowed to pick a replacement from the automatic berths without a bowl tie-in (Big East Champion) or an at-large team. If two bowls lose teams to the NC, the bowl that lost #1 will pick first. Currently, that is the Rose. Now, under most circumstances, the Rose may select any at-large team they want. However, they created this provision last year:
quote:
For the games of January 2011 through 2014, the first year the Rose Bowl loses a team to the NCG and a team from the non-AQ group is an automatic qualifier, that non-AQ team will play in the Rose Bowl.
To clear up your confusion, this is ONLY for the Rose Bowl. The Sugar Bowl is under no obligation to select any specific team.
I hope that clears it up for you. Everything else you said, however convoluted, was still correct.
Try looking up any other questions here: LINK
Posted on 11/18/10 at 1:25 am to tigerinridgeland
quote:
The Rose would likely favor another Pac 10 team, but if LSU is in the top 4, they will have to go somewhere
Myth. Check my post above yours for clarification on this rule.
quote:
What is the picking order this year?
Bowl that lost BCS #1
Bowl that lost BCS #2
Sugar
Orange
Fiesta
Note: Although that is the order they pick behind closed-doors, they usually manipulate the match-ups to create "better" games. From the BCS Website:
quote:
After completion of the selection process as described in Paragraph Nos. 1-4, the conferences and Notre Dame may, but are not required to, adjust the pairings taking into consideration the following: A. whether the same team will be playing in the same bowl game for two consecutive years; B. whether two teams that played against one another in the regular season will be paired against one another in a bowl game; C. whether the same two teams will play against each other in a bowl game for two consecutive years; and D. whether alternative pairings may have greater or lesser appeal to college football fans as measured by expected ticket sales for the bowls and by expected television interest, and the consequent financial impact on ESPN and the bowls.
Posted on 11/18/10 at 1:31 am to slackster
quote:
If it was Week 3. Or Week 10. But not Championship Week. I think people are discounting the scrutiny that will go into the final ballots should Auburn lose to USCe.
I certainly defer to your greater expertise than my amateurish efforts (and that is meant in all seriousness), but I think there is a very large likelihood that Auburn falls out of the top 4 if they lose to USCe. In part it may depend on how close the Bama game is, and what the SECCG score is. It also may depend, in part, on the state of Camgate by that point and how the human voters react. I do think there will be scrutiny, as you state, but that could work against Auburn. Auburn is not in nearly as good a position as OU was in 2003 to keep the fall from being more than 2 positions.
Posted on 11/18/10 at 1:46 am to tigerinridgeland
Just wanted to point this out to people saying AU automatically gets a BCS bid as a 1-loss SEC runner-up (should SC beat them).
In 2007, Mizzou beat Kansas head-up to win the Big XII North, and then promptly lost to Oklahoma. The next day the BCS selected Kansas to the Orange Bowl, despite the fact that Missouri beat them 8 days earlier and had been No. 1 in the country the night before.
BCS bowls don't usually like to select teams coming off bad performances. If AU loses the SEC title game to finish 12-1, they don't automatically get an at-large bid. It all depends on BCS ranking and which program the bowl considers to be a better draw.
No disrespect to Auburn, but I like LSU's odds of getting at-large consideration (should they win out), given how famous Tiger fans are for traveling.
We'll see I guess.
In 2007, Mizzou beat Kansas head-up to win the Big XII North, and then promptly lost to Oklahoma. The next day the BCS selected Kansas to the Orange Bowl, despite the fact that Missouri beat them 8 days earlier and had been No. 1 in the country the night before.
BCS bowls don't usually like to select teams coming off bad performances. If AU loses the SEC title game to finish 12-1, they don't automatically get an at-large bid. It all depends on BCS ranking and which program the bowl considers to be a better draw.
No disrespect to Auburn, but I like LSU's odds of getting at-large consideration (should they win out), given how famous Tiger fans are for traveling.
We'll see I guess.
Posted on 11/18/10 at 1:53 am to fuzzymayo
quote:
In 2007, Mizzou beat Kansas head-up to win the Big XII North, and then promptly lost to Oklahoma. The next day the BCS selected Kansas to the Orange Bowl, despite the fact that Missouri beat them 8 days earlier and had been No. 1 in the country the night before.
I think this is a much closer analogy than 2003 OU. And Auburn hasn't even reached the no. 1 spot. Nevertheless, even the Missouri analogy isn't perfect. I think Auburn is in a better position than Missouri was because Auburn will have only one loss (under these assumptions), and Missouri got its second loss in the B12 title game. Plus Missouri got the no. 1 slot by attrition, not so much because anyone really believed they were the best team at the time. There are many who believe that Auburn is actually the best team in the country, and they are a solid no. 2 in the polls, whereas Missouri was an unconvincing top 1-3 team when it got to the no. 1 slot.
This post was edited on 11/18/10 at 1:54 am
Posted on 11/18/10 at 2:05 am to tigerinridgeland
quote:
In part it may depend on how close the Bama game is, and what the SECCG score is.
Agreed.
quote:
It also may depend, in part, on the state of Camgate by that point and how the human voters react.
Agreed.
Look, in all likelihood, if Auburn's only loss is to USCe in the SEC CG, it will PROBABLY not be enough to fall behind LSU in the BCS. Now, there are situations such as a USCe blowout that could definitely knock them out (although that is really hard to imagine) as well as a deteriorating Cam Newton situation, however those are both fairly unlikely.
quote:
Auburn is not in nearly as good a position as OU was in 2003 to keep the fall from being more than 2 positions.
I am not really in favor of using this as an example. Auburn is in almost the exact same situation as OU with regard to the computers, actually, but the polls that year were goofy. I do not draw any conclusions from that precedent.
A better example would be Missouri/Kansas of 2007. Despite Missouri's loss to Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship, Missouri stayed ahead of Kansas in all of the polls. Granted, Kansas got the bid to the Orange Bowl and Missouri missed out on a BCS Bowl, but that is not the point of this conversation. We are very confident in Auburn having an edge on LSU in the computers regardless of the SEC CG outcome. It will probably be by a "full" spot. That would require LSU not only placing in front of Auburn in the polls, but far enough in front. That is the biggest problem. I do not think it is out of the question for LSU to be ahead of Auburn on some ballots, or even most ballots. However, I think it is unlikely that they are a "half" spot ahead in both polls.
Assuming Auburn beats Bama but loses to USCe, Oregon, TCU, Boise, LSU, Wisconsin, Stanford, and Nebraska win out, there will be a clusterfrick in the polls on 12/5/2010.
Oregon, TCU, and Boise will almost surely take all the 1-3 votes. A rogue voter may vote Nebraska, LSU, Stanford, or Auburn ahead of one of the non-AQs, but it will be few and far between. Not only is Auburn a threat to keep LSU from moving into 4th in the polls, but Nebraska and Wisconsin have pretty good chances as well, especially if both are conference champions. A lot of voters will look at LSU and think - "Yea, but... they didn't win their division." That same thought process permeates this board, so it certainly would affect the pollsters.
I am about to post a new thread that addresses the LSU/Auburn what if's more directly. I will link it in this post when I am done.
Posted on 11/18/10 at 2:10 am to fuzzymayo
quote:
If AU loses the SEC title game to finish 12-1, they don't automatically get an at-large bid.
Unless the finish at #3 or #4 in the BCS AND ahead of LSU, in which case, yes, they do get an automatic berth.
quote:
No disrespect to Auburn, but I like LSU's odds of getting at-large consideration (should they win out), given how famous Tiger fans are for traveling.
If LSU wins out and Auburn falls to USCe and NEITHER finish in the Top 4 (perhaps Nebraska wins out dominantly and squeezes its way in there), then I certainly agree with you. However, the Cam vs. UGA game was the highest rated CBS game of the year. If there are still questions about his eligibility during the bowl selections, a bowl may attempt to risk it in hopes that the television audience would be huge for the game.
Posted on 11/18/10 at 2:12 am to fuzzymayo
quote:
In 2007, Mizzou beat Kansas head-up to win the Big XII North, and then promptly lost to Oklahoma. The next day the BCS selected Kansas to the Orange Bowl, despite the fact that Missouri beat them 8 days earlier and had been No. 1 in the country the night before.
If Mizzou would have finished in the Top 4 that year, despite the loss, they would have been given an automatic berth and Kansas would have went to the Cotton.
Posted on 11/18/10 at 3:43 am to slackster
quote:
However, the Cam vs. UGA game was the highest rated CBS game of the year. If there are still questions about his eligibility during the bowl selections, a bowl may attempt to risk it in hopes that the television audience would be huge for the game.
That would be a bad bet for the bowl. Cam's situation will be old news. He will likely either not be playing by that point or he will be playing and little or no controversy left. People tuned into the UGA Auburn game because it was the first game after Camgate broke.
On the other hand, the Mad Hatter is the "most interesting coach in the world." By January, if LSU wins out, he will likely be getting more attention than Cam, especially if Auburn loses to USCe.
This post was edited on 11/18/10 at 3:44 am
Posted on 11/18/10 at 5:08 am to tigerinridgeland
quote:
That would be a bad bet for the bowl.
I agree. I am just tossing an idea out there.
Posted on 11/18/10 at 8:48 am to Lacour
We are going to the Sugar.
Posted on 11/18/10 at 8:54 am to RummelTiger
quote:
No
Ok then answer my question. WHEN did the gator bowl become an SEC tie in?
The SEC tie in bowls as of last year
Sugar
Capital One
Outback
Cotton
Chick-Fil-A
Liberty
Music City
Independence
PapaJohns.com Bowl
When did the Gator Bowl join that list and at which position?
Otherwise why would anyone think we would go to the GatorBowl?
Posted on 11/18/10 at 8:58 am to LC4Tigers
quote:
Indy bowl doesn't have sec tie ins anymore
True,but to think of that bastard Meyer in Shreveport would be funny. Maybe the SEC will have a team qualify as an 'at-large'.
But probably the Outback Bowl has already completed half of its program and merchandise with Florida Gators stuff.
Posted on 11/18/10 at 9:01 am to ItTakesAThief
quote:
If we lose to Arky, I hope we end up in the Cotton.
If we lose to them I bet the Cotton picks Arky; both have 2 losses and they beat us head to head, plus JJ loves Arky.
Posted on 11/18/10 at 9:03 am to Catman88
Gator replaced Indy but is over Liberty
Posted on 11/18/10 at 11:57 am to slackster
Please confirm:
So if Auburn drops only to #3 by losing the SEC championship (we're basically talking spots 3 and 4), and LSU is #4, Auburn is still automatic based on BCS standings? I thought (without any solid facts to back it up), you just have to choose one (3 or 4).
On a sorta related note, I am beginning to wonder about Auburn's chances- every other school with a player under suspicion has suspended that player (Greene at UGA, the Carolina saga etc). Auburn has said "screw that" and has played Newton with the goal of winning out, at all cost. I am curious to see what the coaches' poll would do if Auburn were to lose a game; they may get drilled for playing "by a different set of rules".
quote:
If AU loses the SEC title game to finish 12-1, they don't automatically get an at-large bid.
Unless the finish at #3 or #4 in the BCS AND ahead of LSU, in which case, yes, they do get an automatic berth.
So if Auburn drops only to #3 by losing the SEC championship (we're basically talking spots 3 and 4), and LSU is #4, Auburn is still automatic based on BCS standings? I thought (without any solid facts to back it up), you just have to choose one (3 or 4).
On a sorta related note, I am beginning to wonder about Auburn's chances- every other school with a player under suspicion has suspended that player (Greene at UGA, the Carolina saga etc). Auburn has said "screw that" and has played Newton with the goal of winning out, at all cost. I am curious to see what the coaches' poll would do if Auburn were to lose a game; they may get drilled for playing "by a different set of rules".
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